This is the portion of temperature change that is imposed on the ocean - atmosphere - land system from the outside and it includes contributions from anthropogenic increases in greenhouse gasses, aerosols, and land - use change as well
as changes in solar radiation and volcanic aerosols.
That may mean that natural factors, such
as changes in solar radiation, played a larger role in atmospheric carbon dioxide than reforestation during this time, Pongratz said.
Not exact matches
The researchers warn, however, that the future evolution of the AMO remains uncertain, with many factors potentially affecting how it interacts with atmospheric circulation patterns, such
as Arctic sea ice loss,
changes in solar radiation, volcanic eruptions and concentrations of greenhouse gases
in the atmosphere.
In recent years, a brand of research called «climate attribution science» has sprouted from this question, examining the impact of extreme events to determine how much — often in fractional terms — is related to human - induced climate change, and how much to natural variability (whether in climate patterns such as the El Niño / La Niña - Southern Oscillation, sea - surface temperatures, changes in incoming solar radiation, or a host of other possible factors
In recent years, a brand of research called «climate attribution science» has sprouted from this question, examining the impact of extreme events to determine how much — often
in fractional terms — is related to human - induced climate change, and how much to natural variability (whether in climate patterns such as the El Niño / La Niña - Southern Oscillation, sea - surface temperatures, changes in incoming solar radiation, or a host of other possible factors
in fractional terms — is related to human - induced climate
change, and how much to natural variability (whether
in climate patterns such as the El Niño / La Niña - Southern Oscillation, sea - surface temperatures, changes in incoming solar radiation, or a host of other possible factors
in climate patterns such
as the El Niño / La Niña - Southern Oscillation, sea - surface temperatures,
changes in incoming solar radiation, or a host of other possible factors
in incoming
solar radiation, or a host of other possible factors).
Will Gray is of course disputing the «
changes in solar radiation» theory of recent warming just
as much
as he is disputing the CO2 explanation.
There are a large number of recent peer - reviewed scientific publications demonstrating how
solar activity can affect our climate (Benestad, 2002), such
as how
changes in the UV
radiation following the
solar activity affect the stratospheric ozone concentrations (1999) and how earth's temperatures respond to
changes in the total
solar irradiance (Meehl, 2003).
The paragraph
in the OP you quote from
as well
as the one above it
in full are saying that the ice age cycles result from the Earth's
changing orbit round the sun which creates
changes in the «incoming
solar radiation (insolation) at high latitudes» (Roe (2006) PDF).
Refraction, specifically the real component of refraction n (describes bending of rays, wavelength
changes relative to a vacuum, affects blackbody fluxes and intensities —
as opposed to the imaginary component, which is related to absorption and emission) is relatively unimportant to shaping radiant fluxes through the atmosphere on Earth (except on the small scale processes where it (along with difraction, reflection) gives rise to scattering, particularly of
solar radiation —
in that case, the effect on the larger scale can be described by scattering properties, the emergent behavior).
[Response: They are imposed directly
as cyclic
changes in the amount (and spectra) of the incoming
solar radiation.
These shape the 4 - dimensional pattern of temperature and other
changes — the patterns of circulation, latent heating, and precipitation will shift,
as can the cycles driven the imposed diurnal and seasonal cycles
in incident
solar radiation; the texture of internal variability can also shift.
First, for
changing just CO2 forcing (or CH4, etc, or for a non-GHE forcing, such
as a
change in incident
solar radiation, volcanic aerosols, etc.), there will be other GHE radiative «forcings» (feedbacks, though
in the context of measuring their radiative effect, they can be described
as having radiative forcings of x W / m2 per
change in surface T), such
as water vapor feedback, LW cloud feedback, and also, because GHE depends on the vertical temperature distribution, the lapse rate feedback (this generally refers to the tropospheric lapse rate, though
changes in the position of the tropopause and
changes in the stratospheric temperature could also be considered lapse - rate feedbacks for forcing at TOA; forcing at the tropopause with stratospheric adjustment takes some of that into account; sensitivity to forcing at the tropopause with stratospheric adjustment will generally be different from sensitivity to forcing without stratospheric adjustment and both will generally be different from forcing at TOA before stratospheric adjustment; forcing at TOA after stratospehric adjustment is identical to forcing at the tropopause after stratospheric adjustment).
It's looking more and more like most climate
change can be pegged to
changes in solar output, either directly through additional warming or indirectly
as decreases
in solar output allow more cosmic rays to reach the atmosphere, causing increased cloud nucleation and therefore increasing the earth's albedo and reflecting more
solar radiation.
With the impacts of rising temperatures already being felt, and recent IPCC reports drawing into sharper focus the range of impacts expected
in the coming decades,
solar radiation management (SRM) is attracting increasing attention
as a potentially cheap, fast - acting, albeit temporary response to some of the dangers of climate
change.
Sunspot observations (going back to the 17th century),
as well
as data from isotopes generated by cosmic
radiation, provide evidence for longer - term
changes in solar activity.
PHYS.org:
Changes in solar radiation, known
as solar forcing, have had only a very small effect on climate
change, a member of the UN's top panel of climate scientists said today.
Natural variability might modulate the flow of energy between parts of the system, such
as from ocean to atmosphere, but the «pace of climate warming»,
as in the general gain
in energy (or loss of energy) of the entire climate system, can only be dictated by some external forcing, such
as somthing that
changes the amount of
solar radiation reaching the surface, volcanoes, or
changes in GH gas concentrations.
I have sought the best empirical evidence to show how
changes in incoming
solar radiation, accounted for by intrinsic
solar magnetic modulation of the irradiance output
as well
as planetary modulation of the seasonal distribution of sunlight, affects the thermal properties of land and sea, including temperatures.
`... but the «pace of climate warming»,
as in the general gain
in energy (or loss of energy) of the entire climate system, can only be dictated by some external forcing, such
as somthing that
changes the amount of
solar radiation reaching the surface, volcanoes, or
changes in GH gas concentrations...»
Temperature at 100hPa
changes at 20 ° -30 ° latitude
in both hemispheres with the
change in solar radiation as represented by 10.7 Flux.
We know the Asian aerosols have gone up, but for the Earth
as a whole, there is very, very little
change in the reflected
solar radiation (just a blip from Mount Pinatubo
in 1991 - 1993).
Tackling climate
change by reducing the
solar radiation reaching our planet using climate engineering, known also
as geoengineering, could result
in undesirable effects for the Earth and humankind.
Changes in solar radiation, known
as solar forcing, have had only a very small effect on climate
change, a member of the UN's top panel of climate scientists said today.
By the way, water is the only molecule
in the upper atmosphere of significant quantity to radiate the balance of IR beyond the minor CO2
radiation plus the IR window
radiation and
as such is the primary earth cooling agent (including cloud reflection) and thus is a negative feedback to any actual
changes in solar input energy.
The report, considerably more cautious, describes geoengineering
as one element of a «portfolio of responses» to climate
change and examines the prospects of two approaches — removing carbon dioxide from the atmosphere, and enveloping the planet
in a layer of sulfate particles to reduce the amount of
solar radiation reaching the Earth's surface.
As such, it can not capture the slow - down
in net anthropogenic forcings that allows the effects of declining
solar radiation and
changes from El Nino or La Nina to dominate the 1999 — 2008 period.
As such, they may provide a powerful demonstration of the impacts of
changes in solar radiation on the climate system.
If greater
changes in solar radiation occur —
as seems probable based on what is known of climate and
solar activity
in the past — the Sun needs to be considered
in long - term climate projections.
As an example, variations
in the flow of both UV
radiation and atomic particles that accompany
changes in overall
solar activity alter the amount of ozone
in the stratosphere.
The model included a more comprehensive set of natural and human - made climate forcings than previous studies, including
changes in solar radiation, volcanic particles, human - made greenhouse gases, fine particles such
as soot, the effect of the particles on clouds and land use.
As for direct
solar radiation at the surface, I could update the diagrams to show that the the remaining energy is absorbed by the atmosphere instead, but it doesn't
change the argument
in any significant fashion.
Radiative forcing: A
change in average net
radiation at the top of the troposphere (known
as the tropopause) because of a
change in either incoming
solar or exiting infrared
radiation.
The physics that must be included to investigate the moist greenhouse is principally: (i) accurate
radiation incorporating the spectral variation of gaseous absorption
in both the
solar radiation and thermal emission spectral regions, (ii) atmospheric dynamics and convection with no specifications favouring artificial atmospheric boundaries, such
as between a troposphere and stratosphere, (iii) realistic water vapour physics, including its effect on atmospheric mass and surface pressure, and (iv) cloud properties that respond realistically to climate
change.
Warming trend At this time of
changing climate, the Northern Hemisphere of the Earth was subject to increased
solar radiation because its perihelion (defined) was
in July rather than
in January
as it is now.
The only direct real - world inputs to these models,
in a climate
change simulation context, are
changes in atmospheric chemistry and composition (such
as increasing greenhouse gases, or
changing volcanic aerosols) and
changes in solar radiation.
For the stratospheric sulphate idea, these fall into two classes -
changes to the physical climate
as a function of the
changes in heating profiles
in solar and longwave
radiation, and chemical and ecological effects from the addition of so much sulphur to the system.
Regional climatic
changes played a role
as well, which was particularly relevant
in Amazon rainforests, which accounted for 42 % of the global NPP increase, owing mainly to decreased cloud cover and the resulting increase
in solar radiation (note that it is basically impossible to determine how much of this increase
in NPP is a result of recent global climate
change vs. natural climate variability, although both are likely to have played a role).
These include other anthropogenic factors such
as increased industrial aerosols and ozone depletion,
as well
as natural
changes in solar radiation and volcanic aerosols, and the cycle of El Niño and La Niña events.
In 1905 there was not even an approximate knowledge of the intensity of solar radiation, in free space as it exists outside the earth's atmosphere; and no instruments existed for detecting or measuring solar changes with a sufficient degree of accurac
In 1905 there was not even an approximate knowledge of the intensity of
solar radiation,
in free space as it exists outside the earth's atmosphere; and no instruments existed for detecting or measuring solar changes with a sufficient degree of accurac
in free space
as it exists outside the earth's atmosphere; and no instruments existed for detecting or measuring
solar changes with a sufficient degree of accuracy.
For the stratospheric sulphate idea, these fall into two classes —
changes to the physical climate
as a function of the
changes in heating profiles
in solar and longwave
radiation, and chemical and ecological effects from the addition of so much sulphur to the system.
Three - dimensional (3D) planetary general circulation models (GCMs) derived from the models that we use to project 21st Century
changes in Earth's climate can now be used to address outstanding questions about how Earth became and remained habitable despite wide swings
in solar radiation, atmospheric chemistry, and other climate forcings; whether these different eras of habitability manifest themselves
in signals that might be detected from a great distance; whether and how planets such
as Mars and Venus were habitable
in the past; how common habitable exoplanets might be; and how we might best answer this question with future observations.