Writing in the October 1 issue of Nature, David Victor and Charles Kennel, both of the University of California, San Diego, argue for pegging climate policy to a new «array of planetary vital signs,» such
as changes in the heat content of the oceans.
Figure 4 shows the same data as in Figure 3, except expressed as a temperature change rather than
as a change in heat content.»
Not exact matches
For
as much
as atmospheric temperatures are rising, the amount of energy being absorbed by the planet is even more striking when one looks into the deep oceans and the
change in the global
heat content (Figure 4).
Changes in Hadley circulation affects convection and thus atmospheric moisture
content and cloud cover which may
in turn affect net solar
heating as well
as the transfer of
heat from Earth to space.
However, lacking global observations of surface mass and ocean
heat content capable of resolving year to year variations with sufficient accuracy, comprehensive diagnosis of the events early
in the altimetry record (e.g. such
as determining the relative roles of thermal expansion versus mass
changes) has remained elusive.
You've got the radiative physics, the measurements of ocean temperature and land temperature, the
changes in ocean
heat content (Hint — upwards, whereas if if was just a matter of circulation moving
heat around you might expect something more simple) and of course observed predictions such
as stratospheric cooling which you don't get when warming occurs from oceanic circulation.
In 2008, climate
change sceptic Roger Pielke Sr said this: «Global warming,
as diagnosed by upper ocean
heat content has not been occurring since 2004».
Numerous denier arguments involving slight fluctuations
in the global distribution of warmer vs cooler sea surface areas
as supposed explanations of climate
change neglect all the energy that goes into ocean
heat content, melting large ice deposits and so forth.
I also usually try to include the
change in the Relative Humidity, (if it can be found),
in my graphs
as humidity plays a part
in the atmospheric
heat content.
Eg see the map
in LWJ06's Fig 2, which shows regional
heat content changes, expressed
as fluxes, on the order of + / - 50 W / m2.
The only way to make sense of it is to interpret them
as saying that sfc t is not conserved, unlike say
heat content (which isn't conserved either, but
changes in it represent energy flows
in and out).
As it happens the total Earth surface
change in heat content from 1971 - 2010 was to 274 [196 - 374] zetajoules.
Once again, a group of believers (Leviticus) claims that a strong
change is discernable
in some aspect of the AGW mythos, yet when the Leviticus paper is actually read, it is clear that
as Pielke, Sr. points out, OHC is
in reality not doing what is predicted, is significantly lower than the AGW prediction, and that Leviticus offers no mechanism to move this
heat fromthe surface to the depths, unless one accepts arm waving
as the method of moving
heat content.
For
as much
as atmospheric temperatures are rising, the amount of energy being absorbed by the planet is even more striking when one looks into the deep oceans and the
change in the global
heat content (Figure 4).
Not all at once of course, but
as mentioned above, when the PDO goes positive, we can likely expect a significant
change in the atmospheric
heat content as heat energy is transferred from the deep oceans back into the atmosphere.
As you know, Isaac Held recently discussed the relative contributions of forced and unforced variations to global surface temperature
change in terms of the direction of
changes in ocean
heat content.
The rate of warming
as measured by ocean
heat content changes over the last 4 years shows that we have DOUBLED the top - of - atmosphere energy imbalance from 0.6 watts per meter squared to 1.1 watts per meter squared
in the last 7 years.
We present an analysis to illustrate why temperature values at specific levels will depend on wind speed, and with the same boundary layer
heat content change, trends
in temperature should be expected to be different at every height near the surface when the winds are light,
as well
as different between light wind and stronger wind nights.
They are mainly derived from the Shaviv reference (provided
in the link above) that concludes that the solar signal is amplified
as indicated by the magnitude of
changes in ocean
heat content (and other less direct measures) over the course of the 11 year solar cycle.
Because there is no experiment that shows that variations
in CO2 concentration over a body of water causes a
change in heat content as Kenneth likes to put it?
As for your V&V discussion, I don't see the relevance of it
in this talk, but
in the context of physical science of climate
change we have overwhelming evidence of model usefulness and verification (water vapor feedback, simulating the Pinatubo eruption effects, ocean
heat content changes, stratospheric cooling, arctic amplification, etc).
A
change in ocean
heat content can also alter patterns of ocean circulation, which can have far - reaching effects on global climate conditions, including
changes to the outcome and pattern of meteorological events such
as tropical storms, and also temperatures
in the northern Atlantic region, which are strongly influenced by currents that may be substantially reduced with CO2 increase
in the atmosphere.
The natural internal variability of the climate system arises from factors such
as El Niño, fluctuations
in the thermohaline circulation, and
changes in ocean
heat content.
Q3 - Does the difference between Tangaroa and Chelle et al imply that a
change in DLR does not
heat the ocean
as much
as a similar
change in DSR and, therefore, the earth's
heat content sensitivity is considerably less for DLR than DSR?
As seen
in Figure 4 - 3, the ocean warming occurred
in the later years of the record with little
change in globally averaged ocean
heat content prior to 1997.
The argument that this
change it is somehow driven by energy reservoirs
in the deep ocean is clearly flawed: the deep ocean would be * cooling *
as it lost energy to the upper ocean, but deep ocean
heat content is increasing at the same time
as OHC
in the upper ocean is increasing.
Why are you correlating CFC's against surface temperatures
as an indication of what might be occurring rather than against total
change in the
heat content of the entire system?
Natural variability
in air temperature (the lack of significant warming
in the last decade) can be regarded
as noise
in the monotonic increase due to GHGs, but a one year total (ocean)
heat content change can't.