Sentences with phrase «as climate model projections»

Scaling the results from both theory as well as climate model projections suggest, then, that roughly 3 % of hurricane rainfall today can be reasonably attributed to manmade global warming.

«In light of the above findings, it appears that sea ice cover in the Bohai Sea is not quite as sensitive to CO2 - induced global warming as climate model projections / theory suggest it should be.

So, Koonin's guesses are exactly as valid as climate model projections?

It provides additional climate information that was not available during the previous regional assessment in 2007 and draws heavily on the PCIC province - wide analysis, Climate Overview 2007 as well as climate model projections prepared for the IPCC Fourth Assessment Report.

Not exact matches

The research in Nature Climate Change signals that many climate models may be too conservative in their projections through this century, as they are not considering ice loss from the northeast portion of GreClimate Change signals that many climate models may be too conservative in their projections through this century, as they are not considering ice loss from the northeast portion of Greclimate models may be too conservative in their projections through this century, as they are not considering ice loss from the northeast portion of Greenland.

The goals of the project include reconstructing extreme climate changes from the recent past (1894 - 2014), using historically referenced data to assess near - future global climate model projections, and to ultimately use this analysis to investigate ecological problems in Chesapeake Bay, such as eelgrass diebacks.

Current climate change models indicate temperatures will increase as long as humans continue to emit greenhouse gases into the atmosphere, but the projections of future precipitation are far less certain.

This projection is unlike what has been predicted as a drying period by the majority of current climate models.

Computer model projections of future conditions analyzed by the Scripps team indicate that regions such as the Amazon, Central America, Indonesia, and all Mediterranean climate regions around the world will likely see the greatest increase in the number of «dry days» per year, going without rain for as many as 30 days more every year.

The trends driven by earlier snowmelt are likely to as they are «are very much in line with the projections of future climate» from climate models, study co-author Berit Arheimer of the Swedish Meteorological and Hydrological Institute said.

Air pollutant emission inventories are essential in measuring the impact of pollution on air quality and the climate, as they are fed into atmospheric and climate models to make projections for the future.

Future ocean projections for the year 2100 were compiled from all available data generated by Earth Systems Models as part of the Coupled Model Inter-comparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) to the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (Taylor et al., 2012) as in Mora et al. (2013).

In addition, exclusion of human - related impacts such as irrigation, land use, and water diversion from most current climate models makes reliable projection of drought even less certain (Sheffield and Wood 2008).

To derive the climate projections for this assessment, we employed 20 general circulation models to consider two scenarios of global carbon emissions: one where atmospheric greenhouse gases are stabilized by the end of the century and the other where it grows on its current path (the stabilization [RCP4.5] and business - as - usual [RCP8.5] emission scenarios, respectively).

As research leaders in developing and using models to provide scientific insights into weather and climate change, Qian and others are striving to understand uncertainty in systems and modeling to improve projections and help prepare vulnerable regions for potential climate change impact.

As the basis for the chapter to follow, we provide summaries of the scaled - down global climate model projections for each of these climate variables below.

Known as a «co-benefit,» using state of the art models for human and natural systems, along with climate projections from the international community, the team was able for the first time to put a value on the global air pollution benefits of cutting greenhouse gas emissions over the 21st century.

For the projections in the Water chapter, we present results from as many as 31 climate models that are linked to a water - cycle model.

In projecting climate variables such as temperature, precipitation, and humidity, there is generally a tradeoff between (a) the ability to produce high - resolution projections needed to inform local decisions and model local responses, and (b) the ability to sample uncertainty.

«In other words, the projections shown here were made before the observations confirmed them as being correct, striking at the heart of the argument that modellers tune their models to yield the correct climate change results.»

I have been looking at the histogram of the models spread compared to observational means at the bottom of the Climate Model Projections Compared to Observations page as the definitive way to look at the question of how the models are performing.

Well, because soon (as soon as December 2005) the leading authors of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (aka IPCC) Assessment Report # 4 (AR4) will have to decide what the current knowledge in climate state, modeling and climate projection estimates is, so as to include it in the next Climate Change (aka IPCC) Assessment Report # 4 (AR4) will have to decide what the current knowledge in climate state, modeling and climate projection estimates is, so as to include it in the next climate state, modeling and climate projection estimates is, so as to include it in the next climate projection estimates is, so as to include it in the next report.

This data product will be useful in future studies, including as a benchmark for comparisons with climate - model simulations that attempt to account for both anthropogenic and natural factors in projections of future climate.

Sensitivity analysis shows that future fire potential depends on many factors such as climate model and emission scenario used for climate change projection.

It describes some of the recent drought conditions, compares observed drought and modeled drought conditions from 1950 (observed was roughly 20 %) to 2000 (observed was roughly 30 %), then makes projections based upon climate models and the business as usual SRES A2 scenario where roughly 50 % of the world's land will be experiencing drought by 2100 at any given time.

Meanwhile, modeling results in this area don't lead to definitive conclusions; as the recent WMO statement puts it, «Although recent climate model simulations project a decrease or no change in global tropical cyclone numbers in a warmer climate there is low confidence in this projection.

Raw climate model results for a business - as - usual scenario indicate that we can expect global temperatures to increase anywhere in the range of 5.8 and 10.6 degrees Fahrenheit (3.2 to 5.9 degrees Celsius) over preindustrial levels by the end of the century — a difference of about a factor of two between the most - and least - severe projections.

Also referred to as synthetic scenarios (IPCC, 1994), they are commonly applied to study the sensitivity of an exposure unit to a wide range of variations in climate, often according to a qualitative interpretation of projections of future regional climate from climate model simulations (guided sensitivity analysis, see IPCC - TGCIA, 1999).

As models approach this resolution, as FLOR and HiFLOR do, climate change projections can be made with more confidencAs models approach this resolution, as FLOR and HiFLOR do, climate change projections can be made with more confidencas FLOR and HiFLOR do, climate change projections can be made with more confidence.

Finally, simulations having finer spatial detail (i.e., «downscaled» climate model projections) do not necessarily have greater accuracy than coarser - resolution simulations; they add contextual detail related to factors such as regional topography and coastlines but may still retain the same basic climatic features simulated at larger scales.

This result suggests that current projections of regional climate change may be questionable.This finding is also highly relevant to regional climate modelling studies where lower resolution global atmospheric models are often used as the driving model for high resolution regional models.

As in these studies, model projections depend greatly on future climate simulations, emission levels, and dispersal scenarios.

Focusing on the «pause» is mainly significant in context of the comparison between climate model projections and surface temperatures... Attempts to spin 2014 as a possible «warmest year» is exactly that: spin designed to influence the Lima deliberations....

Climate projections, such as those used by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, rely on models that simulate physical properties that affect climate, including clouds and water vapor cClimate projections, such as those used by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, rely on models that simulate physical properties that affect climate, including clouds and water vapor cClimate Change, rely on models that simulate physical properties that affect climate, including clouds and water vapor cclimate, including clouds and water vapor content.

Koutsoyiannis (2011) showed that an ensemble of climate model projections is fully contained WITHIN the uncertainty envelope of traditional stochastic methods using historical data, including the Hurst phenomena... the Hurst phenomena (1951) describes the large and long excursions of natural events above and below their mean, as opposed to random processes which do not exhibit such behavior.

The approach to model evaluation taken in the chapter reflects the need for climate models to represent the observed behaviour of past climate as a necessary condition to be considered a viable tool for future projections.

Contrary to another claim made by Betts, we are conversant with that research and have recently contributed to it by showing that climate models do accommodate recent temperature trends when the phasing of natural internal variability is taken into account — as it must be in comparing a projection to a single outcome.

But the projections they obtain may not be as reliable or useful as they appear: Today's gold standard for climate impact assessments — model intercomparison projects (MIPs)-- fall short in many ways.

I wish it were the opposite of the truth, but the truth is that baseless confidence is being placed in long - term climate model projections which, as you rightly point out, are incapable of adequately modelling the climate.

Despite this, supporters of the anthropogenic global warming cause regard climate model computer projections as indisputable predictions, ignoring all else.

To present regional multi-decadal climate projections to the impact communities as part of their driving forces and boundary conditions (for their models and process studies), when there is NO skill on this time scale at predicting changes in climate statistics, is a serious misleading application of the scientific method.

Within an international model intercomparison project, researchers were able to simulate the complex carbon cycle as well as vegetation dynamics in climate projections for the 21st century.

It is astounding that dangerous man - made global warming fanatics like Obama and Prince Charles, in addition to all those climate change charlatans at various academies of science such as The Royal Society, prefer to ignore real word observational data on climate and solar activity, in favour of psuedo - science and climate models that consistently have failed in their scenarios and projections.

In any case, as the 2013 IPCC Fifth Assessment Report showed, the observed global surface warming remains within the range of climate model projections.

They are consistent sets of projections of only the components of radiative forcing that are meant to serve as input for climate modeling, pattern scaling, and atmospheric chemistry modeling.

Concentration scenarios, derived from emission scenarios, are used as input to a climate model to compute climate projections.

If the models show a lack of skill and need tuning with respect to predicting (in hindcast) even the current climate statistics on multi-decadal time scales (much less than CHANGES in climate statistics), they are not ready to be used as robust projection tools for the coming decades.

In this way the climate scientists can tell that my climate model produces the following four projections, when the four pathways are taken as input.

In my experience this is certainly the case if you talk about the simulations as predictions rather than projections — the climate models are not predicting what the weather will be on the 5th of May 2051 — they are providing projections of the climate based on emission scenarios and initial conditions.

In the second part, the downscaling methods were used to make projections of future climate extremes, which were then examined for consistency and to determine the contribution of individual factors, such as choice of downscaling method and climate model, to the overall uncertainty.