As climate modellers will be well aware, a few weeks ago a group of German scientists reported that a weakening in the meridional overturning circulation (MOC) over the next ten years due to natural internal variability could cool climate around the North Atlantic enough to temporarily offset the effects of global warming.
Later in my career
as a climate modeller, I expect to spend a lot of time studying geoengineering.
Not exact matches
This cultural flexibility may have been the key to success for modern humans, says a team of international researchers, made up of archaeologists, paleo climatologists, and
climate modellers from the French CNRS1 and the EPHE PSL Research University, Bergen University
as well
as Wits University.
Statements such
as «They come to believe models are real and forget they are only models» reveals he has never had a conversation with a
climate modeller — our concerns about ice sheets for instance come about precisely because we aren't yet capable of modelling them satisfactorily.
Real scientists (
as opposed to
climate modellers) have long maintained that the decline in Arctic ice is caused not by warmer air — in the past year or two Arctic air temperatures have actually been falling — but by shifts in major ocean currents, pushing warmer water up into the Arctic Circle.
«In other words, the projections shown here were made before the observations confirmed them
as being correct, striking at the heart of the argument that
modellers tune their models to yield the correct
climate change results.»
[Response: That «
modeller» is me (I don't like that label,
as I've done sea - going measurements and published papers on data analysis and theory — my topic is
climate, and models are just one tool for its investigation).
Some of the models also involve ensemble calculations, and again it may be instructive for the
climate modellers to describe something about the use of these, especially
as the public has been involved in some ensemble calculations being run on their pc's at home.
Climate modeller Ken Caldeira believes that if humans keep emitting carbon dioxide into the atmosphere at the same rate
as today, by 2075 the world's coral reefs will begin to disappear because their rate of natural erosion will surpass their ability to grow fast enough to keep up.
Climate modellers can be relied on to be shrill in defense of their «beautiful creations», using derision and sneers
as their principal defense.
I get notified daily of most of the new papers relating to
climate matters (
as a retired
modeller — I still retain an interest), I have seen several recently regarding deep ocean temperature measurement and equipment that is used at multi depths.
While true, that's more feature than bug, since,
as one of the two extreme pathways, it is designed to provide
climate modellers with an unlikely, but still just plausible «how bad could it be» scenario.
Finally,
as a pioneer mathematical
modeller I congratulate Hansen et al on their attempts to model global
climate.
The reason for the neutrality problem,
as you can see from the Talk Page, is William Connelley — who is, amongst his other duties a Wikipedia Admin (which he abuses
as much
as he dares), an admin on RealClimate, a
climate modeller at the British Antarctic Survey (obviously consuming a very small part of his time), and a political candidate for the Green Party in the UK.
The reason for the neutrality problem,
as you can see from the Talk Page, is William Connelley — who is, amongst his other duties a Wikipedia Admin (which he abuses
as much
as he dares), an admin on RealClimate, a
climate modeller at the British Antarctic Survey
For this reason, Shackley et al. found that many
climate modellers didn't want to talk openly about their adjustments, in case critics of man - made global warming (who they referred to
as «
climate contrarians») would use them to question the reliability of the models:
Jim Hansen of NASA, George Bush's top
climate modeller, predicts sea - level rise will be 10 times faster within a few years,
as Greenland destabilises.
Climate modellers refer to the various attempts at these calculations
as «infrared cooling models», and researchers have been proposing different ones since the 1960s, e.g., Stone & Manabe, 1968 (Open access).
Because this is an implicit target for any
climate model development and tuning, the selection of such subjective criteria mimics a suite of models, which will be treated by other
modellers as suitable for
climate studies.
Before we get too bogged down in theological problems such
as calculating how many angels can dance on the head of a pin (or
climate modellers on an ice floe) perhaps we should look at what the data actually show.
Dr. Gavin Schmidt is a
climate modeller at NASA's Goddard Institute for Space Studies,
as well
as the editor at RealClimate.
I still think your choice of the Chicxulub meteor is a difficult one to use
as it so clearly had major and long lasting impacts over the time scales that current
climate modellers are working on.
Each model may be considered a social construct which embodies the beliefs of those
modellers who created it
as how best to represent the
climate system, within the computational and technological constraints at the time.
The current adjustments and hyperventilation about the biblical sanctity of the temperature and models are being done by the
climate scientists and
modellers who have till date not shown any skills or capability to do that job fairly and ethically and especially present results
as they are, without spinning or putting a slant on them or» adjusting» them.
Modellers were able to «peek at the answer» since they could not only observe inputs to the
climate system (such
as historical greenhouse gas levels, volcanic activity, solar changes and so forth) but also the simulation targets, namely average temperatures, when tuning their models.
Mojib Latif suggests,
as other
climate modellers, that decadal variations could explain the variations in Sahel rainfall, or the variations in Atlantic hurricane activity or sea level.
Dr. David Evans, a former
climate modeller for the Australian government's Greenhouse Office, says he found two mathematical errors showing that the IPCC «over-estimated future global warming by
as much
as 10 times.»
Give me a couple of those billions of US dollars you
climate modellers have, and I will give you the data and present the result at same time
as 5AR;-P It does not hurt to be open for other possible truth than the old progress all the time... And take this issue into the IPCC and ask whether there is institutional and other mechanisms that run contrary to self - correction....