For example, corporate leverage is approaching record highs, just
as corporate profit margins are beginning to stall.
Not exact matches
Underlying market conditions, such
as rising earnings estimates, strong
corporate balance sheets and record
profit margins, remain favorable, he said.
As a result, you will enjoy healthy
profit margins and loyal customers without fearing the encroachment of
corporate competitors.
The wage pop [last Friday's 2.9 % growth in hourly wages] spooked the markets because investors, already skittish
as valuations were a bit steep (though not
as bad
as people have been saying, given strong current and expected
corporate earnings), envisioned this sequence: wage growth gooses price growth (i.e., inflation), which raises both market and Federal Reserve interest rates, which slows growth and shaves
corporate profit margins.
Profit margins are at records,
as are
corporate profits, gross domestic product, and household net worth.
Wall Street is placing a pathological over-reliance on a single year of forward operating earnings
as a complete summary of future
corporate prospects, without any adjustment for the level of
profit margins.
But
as long
as 1) inflation remains low, 2)
profit margins remain wide (remember the $ 1.5 trillion tax cut package passed in December slashed the
corporate rate to 21 per cent from 35 per cent), and 3) GDP is also not expected to go backwards, stocks will probably remain supported.
Corporate profit margins are presently 70 percent above the historical mean going back to 1947,
as I've discussed earlier (see, for example, Warren Buffett, Jeremy Grantham, and John Hussman...
Those posts sparked some intense debate in the comments and offline about the increasing influence of foreign
profits on
corporate profit margins, and how this change may have permanently shifted up the mean for
corporate profits as a proportion of GDP.
Some astute investors (such
as Hussman and GMO) have argued in essence that the combination of record government deficit spending and unemployment levels has propped up
corporate revenues while lowering labor costs, thereby boosting
corporate profit margins by
as much
as 70 percent above historical averages.
Corporate profit margins are presently 70 percent above the historical mean going back to 1947, as I've discussed earlier (see, for example, Warren Buffett, Jeremy Grantham, and John Hussman on Profit, GDP and Competi
profit margins are presently 70 percent above the historical mean going back to 1947,
as I've discussed earlier (see, for example, Warren Buffett, Jeremy Grantham, and John Hussman on
Profit, GDP and Competi
Profit, GDP and Competition).
But
corporate profit margins are 70 % above their historical norms, and the deviation is — painfully — well explained by its mirror image: the combined deficit in the government and household sectors (the deficit of one sector must, in equilibrium, emerge
as the surplus of another).
While, at the overall index level, current
corporate fundamentals remain resilient and defaults are not expected to pick up significantly, the trend in leverage,
profit margins and interest coverage suggests the pricing of spread assets should become more discriminatory
as winners and losers are separated in an aging bull market.