As global average temperature increase exceeds about 3.5 oC, model projections suggest significant extinctions (40 - 70 % of species assessed) around the globe.
Let's also look at the specific IPCC quote that Mr. Romm furnishes us with: «
As global average temperature increase exceeds about 3.5 °C [relative to 1980 to 1999], model projections suggest significant extinctions (40 - 70 % of species assessed) around the globe.»
The IPCC's Fourth Assessment says, «
As global average temperature increase exceeds about 3.5 °C [relative to 1980 to 1999], model projections suggest significant extinctions (40 - 70 % of species assessed) around the globe.»
Not exact matches
In December 2015, the world agreed to the Paris Accord; to slash greenhouse gas emissions to hold
global average temperature increase to 1.5 degrees C (over what it was before the Industrial Revolution), and, if we miss that target, to
as far below 2 degrees
as possible.
WHEREAS, in furtherance of the united effort to address the effects of climate change, in 2010 the 16th Session of the Conference of the Parties to the UNFCC met in Cancun, Mexico and recognized that deep cuts in
global greenhouse gas emissions were required, with a goal of reducing
global greenhouse gas emissions so
as to hold the
increase in
global average temperature below 2 °C above pre-industrial levels;
MELBOURNE, AUSTRALIA — In the run - up to national elections on 21 August, the country's top science body, the Australian Academy of Science (AAS), has weighed in on the climate change debate with a report backing the mainstream scientific view that human - induced climate change is real and that a business -
as - usual approach to carbon emissions will lead to a «catastrophic» four - to five - degree
increase in
average global temperatures.
Results of a new study by researchers at the Northeast Climate Science Center (NECSC) at the University of Massachusetts Amherst suggest that
temperatures across the northeastern United States will
increase much faster than the
global average, so that the 2 - degrees Celsius warming target adopted in the recent Paris Agreement on climate change will be reached about 20 years earlier for this part of the U.S. compared to the world
as a whole.
Expressed
as a
global average, surface
temperatures have
increased by about 0.74 °C over the past hundred years (between 1906 and 2005; see Figure 1).
Even so, the IPCC estimates above indicate: 1) Total Net Atmospheric Carbon Emissions to 2100 will amount to ~ 2050 PgC (or more) on current Trends, 2) A BAU projected estimate would push CO2 to ~ 952 ppm by 2100 (or more), and 3)
Global average temperature increase / anomaly would be
as high
as ~ 6.8 C by 2100
However, at the
increased levels seen since the Industrial Revolution (roughly 275 ppm then, 400 ppm now; Figure 2 - 1), greenhouse gases are contributing to the rapid rise of our
global average temperatures by trapping more heat, often referred to
as human - caused climate change.
The
global land and ocean
temperature during January has
increased at an
average rate of +0.07 °C (+0.13 °F) per decade since 1880; however, the
average rate of
increase is twice
as great since 1975.
The WMO warned that continuing on a business
as usual path of rising emissions could put the world on track for 10.8 °F (6 °C)
increase in the
global average temperature.
The Fourth Assessment Report finds that «Warming of the climate system is unequivocal,
as is now evident from observations of
increases in
global average air and ocean
temperatures, widespread melting of snow and ice, and rising mean sea level.
Temperatures in the Arctic are
increasing around three times
as fast
as the
global average — a phenomenon known
as Arctic amplification.
Global warming can be referred to
as climate change that causes an
increase in the
average temperature.
[1] CO2 absorbs IR, is the main GHG, human emissions are
increasing its concentration in the atmosphere, raising
temperatures globally; the second GHG, water vapor, exists in equilibrium with water / ice, would precipitate out if not for the CO2, so acts
as a feedback; since the oceans cover so much of the planet, water is a large positive feedback; melting snow and ice
as the atmosphere warms decreases albedo, another positive feedback, biased toward the poles, which gives larger polar warming than the
global average; decreasing the
temperature gradient from the equator to the poles is reducing the driving forces for the jetstream; the jetstream's meanders are
increasing in amplitude and slowing, just like the lower Missippi River where its driving gradient decreases; the larger slower meanders
increase the amplitude and duration of blocking highs,
increasing drought and extreme
temperatures — and 30,000 + Europeans and 5,000 plus Russians die, and the US corn crop, Russian wheat crop, and Aussie wildland fire protection fails — or extreme rainfall floods the US, France, Pakistan, Thailand (driving up prices for disk drives — hows that for unexpected adverse impacts from AGW?)
Narrowly scoped, the present situation is either strictly caused by solar variations (in which case I believe the «solar variation» crowd will inappropriately gain credibility over the next 10 to 20 years
as we work through the next below
average solar cycle or two), or strictly caused by CO2 concentrations (in which case I believe the «CO2 concentrations» crowd will inappropriately lose credibility
as the non-linear relationship (sensitivity is based on doublings, not linear
increases) between
increased CO2 concentrations, and forecasts for below
average solar cycles reduces the longer term upward trend in
global temperatures).
Global warming does not mean no winter, it means winter start later, summer hotter, as Gary Peters said «The global average surface temperature has risen between 0.6 °C and 0.7 °C since the start of the twentieth century, and the rate of increase since 1976 has been approximately three times faster than the century - scale trend.&
Global warming does not mean no winter, it means winter start later, summer hotter,
as Gary Peters said «The
global average surface temperature has risen between 0.6 °C and 0.7 °C since the start of the twentieth century, and the rate of increase since 1976 has been approximately three times faster than the century - scale trend.&
global average surface
temperature has risen between 0.6 °C and 0.7 °C since the start of the twentieth century, and the rate of
increase since 1976 has been approximately three times faster than the century - scale trend.»
The addition says many climate models typically look at short term, rapid factors when calculating the Earth's climate sensitivity, which is defined
as the
average global temperature increase brought about by a doubling of CO2 in the atmosphere.
Finally, to revisit the question originally posed @ 203: Assuming the IEO2011 Reference case of «1 trillion metric tons of additional cumulative energy - related carbon dioxide emissions between 2009 and 2035», and given that this case equates to following RCP8.5 until 2035
as previously demonstrated @ 408, what
increase in
average global surface
temperature relative to pre-industrial would result by 2035?
We can not afford to delay further action to tackle climate change if the long - term target of limiting the
global average temperature increase to 2 °C,
as analysed in the 450 Scenario, is to be achieved at reasonable cost.
Assuming the IEO2011 Reference case of «1 trillion metric tons of additional cumulative energy - related carbon dioxide emissions between 2009 and 2035», and given that this case equates to following RCP8.5 until 2035
as previously demonstrated @ 408, what
increase in
average global surface
temperature relative to pre-industrial would result by 2035?
It seems to me, in my lay understanding, that climate change is likely to be expressed
as increased average global temperature plus
increased mechanical energy in oceanic and atmospheric currents.
Warming of the climate system is unequivocal,
as is now evident from observations of
increases in
global average air and ocean
temperatures, widespread melting of snow and ice, and rising
global average sea level.
Warming
as measured by
increased global heat, (heat in greater than heat out) and warming measured
as increased globally
averaged temperatures are closely linked but are still different things.
Recognizes that warming of the climate system is unequivocal and that most of the observed
increase in
global average temperatures since the mid twentieth century is very likely due to the
increase in anthropogenic greenhouse gas concentrations,
as assessed by the Intergovernmental Panel for Climate Change in its Fourth Assessment Report;
The dominant driving force of «climate change»
as the term is being used in public policy is «
global warming», an
average increase in
global temperature.
Temperatures in the Arctic are
increasing almost twice
as fast
as the
global average.
[14] The
global average temperature has now been flat for the past 15 years,
as all the while CO2 emissions have continued to
increase.
As Arctic and sub-Arctic regions warm more than the
global average, the
increase in
temperature could lead to more regular fire damage to vegetation and soils and carbon release.
In 2013, the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Fifth Assessment Report stated a clear expert consensus that: «It is extremely likely [defined
as 95 - 100 % certainty] that more than half of the observed
increase in
global average surface
temperature from 1951 to 2010 was caused by the anthropogenic [human - caused]
increase in greenhouse gas concentrations and other anthropogenic forcings together.»
The Kigali Amendment will significantly contribute to the goals contained in the Paris Agreement «to pursue efforts to limit the [
average global]
temperature increase to 1.5 ° Celsius»
as well
as directly support the decision within the Paris Agreement to enhance near - term mitigation.
One study, published in late March in the journal Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, found that
as global warming has boosted
average temperatures across the West, there is now an
increasing risk that a warm year will overlap with a dry one.
Even
as carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions around the world have
increased,
average global temperatures have plateaued.
As greenhouse gas emissions
increase, sea levels are rising,
average global temperatures are
increasing, and severe weather patterns are accelerating.
Now many people have calculated the effect of doubling CO2 in the atmosphere and all agree that this would have the same effect
as a 1.3 %
increase in solar flux and without any feedbacks would lead to about a 1 degree K
increase in
global average temperature.
The reason I am persisting with this is that I think there has been no plateau in
Global warming over the last 10 years,
as every year has been above
average thus the average of the population is increasing, meaning Annual Global Average Temperature has been incr
average thus the
average of the population is increasing, meaning Annual Global Average Temperature has been incr
average of the population is
increasing, meaning Annual
Global Average Temperature has been incr
Average Temperature has been
increasing.
To counter this business -
as - usual scenario, the Stern Review proposes a climate stabilization regime in which greenhouse gas emissions would peak by 2015 and then drop 1 percent per year after that, so
as to stabilize at a 550 ppm CO2e (with a significant chance that the
global average temperature increase would thereby be kept down to 3 °C).
The Commonwealth declaration avoided setting a numerical limit to
global temperature rise, saying only, «We stress our common conviction that urgent and substantial action to reduce
global emissions is needed and have a range of views
as to whether
average global temperature increase should be constrained to below 1.5 degrees or to no more than 2 degrees Celsius above pre-industrial levels.»
If CO2 is a forcing, the
temperature could only
increase (unless compensated for by an
as - yet - undiscovered forcing which magically disappeared
as soon
as credible
average global temperature measurements became available).
What you should say is that
GLOBAL AVERAGE index of temperatures is increasing, or average low troposphere temperature is increasing (a 5 km layer of air, as per satellite interpretation of «brightness temperatures&r
AVERAGE index of
temperatures is
increasing, or
average low troposphere temperature is increasing (a 5 km layer of air, as per satellite interpretation of «brightness temperatures&r
average low troposphere
temperature is
increasing (a 5 km layer of air,
as per satellite interpretation of «brightness
temperatures»).
As the CO2 control knob pushes the external forcing ever higher, the
average global temperature has to
increase to compensate.
As professional scientists, from students to senior professors, we uphold the findings of the IPCC Fourth Assessment Report, which concludes that «Warming of the climate system is unequivocal» and that «Most of the observed
increase in
global average temperatures since the mid-20th century is very likely due to the observed
increase in anthropogenic greenhouse gas concentrations».
Figure 1 shows a range of carbon budgets
as published by different institutions in the energy and climate change sector that it is projected will keep
average increases in
global temperature to within 2 °C.
For example,
as long
as the rise in
global average temperature stays below 3 degrees Celsius, some models predict that
global food production could
increase because of the longer growing season at mid - to high - latitudes, provided adequate water resources are available.
But
as centuries wear on the chances would lower of getting new high
temperature - though
global average may continue to slowly
increase.
The study concluded that in Alaska, western Canada, and eastern Russia,
average temperatures have
increased as much
as 4 to 7 degrees Fahrenheit (3 to 4 degrees Celsius) in the past 50 years, nearly twice the
global average.
IPCC claims to know this (
as expressed in its attribution statement regarding «most of the observed
increase in
global average temperature since the mid-20th century...»), but
as our hostess and others have pointed out, there is much too much uncertainty regarding natural factors to make such an assessment with any degree of certainty.
However, under business
as usual emissions are set to
increase global average temperatures by approximately 2.5 °C.
Furthermore, the Arctic has warmed more than twice
as fast
as the
global average, a phenomenon known
as Arctic amplification, and stimulated by the combined
increasing Arctic
temperatures and rapid loss of sea ice in all seasons along with declining snow cover in the spring and early summer.