As long
as global interest rates remain historically low, look for U.S. equity markets to continue to rise.
Without a clear voice from Berlin, the EU will simply find it harder to articulate policies to deal with the suppression of civil rights in central Europe, the splintering of the single market through Brexit and — heaven help us — a possible renewal of the Eurozone crisis amid
as global interest rates turn higher.
Not exact matches
Important factors that could cause actual results to differ materially from those reflected in such forward - looking statements and that should be considered in evaluating our outlook include, but are not limited to, the following: 1) our ability to continue to grow our business and execute our growth strategy, including the timing, execution, and profitability of new and maturing programs; 2) our ability to perform our obligations under our new and maturing commercial, business aircraft, and military development programs, and the related recurring production; 3) our ability to accurately estimate and manage performance, cost, and revenue under our contracts, including our ability to achieve certain cost reductions with respect to the B787 program; 4) margin pressures and the potential for additional forward losses on new and maturing programs; 5) our ability to accommodate, and the cost of accommodating, announced increases in the build
rates of certain aircraft; 6) the effect on aircraft demand and build
rates of changing customer preferences for business aircraft, including the effect of
global economic conditions on the business aircraft market and expanding conflicts or political unrest in the Middle East or Asia; 7) customer cancellations or deferrals
as a result of
global economic uncertainty or otherwise; 8) the effect of economic conditions in the industries and markets in which we operate in the U.S. and globally and any changes therein, including fluctuations in foreign currency exchange
rates; 9) the success and timely execution of key milestones such
as the receipt of necessary regulatory approvals, including our ability to obtain in a timely fashion any required regulatory or other third party approvals for the consummation of our announced acquisition of Asco, and customer adherence to their announced schedules; 10) our ability to successfully negotiate, or re-negotiate, future pricing under our supply agreements with Boeing and our other customers; 11) our ability to enter into profitable supply arrangements with additional customers; 12) the ability of all parties to satisfy their performance requirements under existing supply contracts with our two major customers, Boeing and Airbus, and other customers, and the risk of nonpayment by such customers; 13) any adverse impact on Boeing's and Airbus» production of aircraft resulting from cancellations, deferrals, or reduced orders by their customers or from labor disputes, domestic or international hostilities, or acts of terrorism; 14) any adverse impact on the demand for air travel or our operations from the outbreak of diseases or epidemic or pandemic outbreaks; 15) our ability to avoid or recover from cyber-based or other security attacks, information technology failures, or other disruptions; 16) returns on pension plan assets and the impact of future discount
rate changes on pension obligations; 17) our ability to borrow additional funds or refinance debt, including our ability to obtain the debt to finance the purchase price for our announced acquisition of Asco on favorable terms or at all; 18) competition from commercial aerospace original equipment manufacturers and other aerostructures suppliers; 19) the effect of governmental laws, such
as U.S. export control laws and U.S. and foreign anti-bribery laws such
as the Foreign Corrupt Practices Act and the United Kingdom Bribery Act, and environmental laws and agency regulations, both in the U.S. and abroad; 20) the effect of changes in tax law, such
as the effect of The Tax Cuts and Jobs Act (the «TCJA») that was enacted on December 22, 2017, and changes to the interpretations of or guidance related thereto, and the Company's ability to accurately calculate and estimate the effect of such changes; 21) any reduction in our credit
ratings; 22) our dependence on our suppliers,
as well
as the cost and availability of raw materials and purchased components; 23) our ability to recruit and retain a critical mass of highly - skilled employees and our relationships with the unions representing many of our employees; 24) spending by the U.S. and other governments on defense; 25) the possibility that our cash flows and our credit facility may not be adequate for our additional capital needs or for payment of
interest on, and principal of, our indebtedness; 26) our exposure under our revolving credit facility to higher
interest payments should
interest rates increase substantially; 27) the effectiveness of any
interest rate hedging programs; 28) the effectiveness of our internal control over financial reporting; 29) the outcome or impact of ongoing or future litigation, claims, and regulatory actions; 30) exposure to potential product liability and warranty claims; 31) our ability to effectively assess, manage and integrate acquisitions that we pursue, including our ability to successfully integrate the Asco business and generate synergies and other cost savings; 32) our ability to consummate our announced acquisition of Asco in a timely matter while avoiding any unexpected costs, charges, expenses, adverse changes to business relationships and other business disruptions for ourselves and Asco
as a result of the acquisition; 33) our ability to continue selling certain receivables through our supplier financing program; 34) the risks of doing business internationally, including fluctuations in foreign current exchange
rates, impositions of tariffs or embargoes, compliance with foreign laws, and domestic and foreign government policies; and 35) our ability to complete the proposed accelerated stock repurchase plan, among other things.
Another year of ultralow
interest rates is one consideration,
as the central bank thinks Canada's non-energy exporters are poised to do well
as the
global economy strengthens.
In the days to come the Fed will have to prove that a new set of tools for managing
interest rates will work
as expected; see how higher U.S.
rates affect domestic and
global financial conditions; and hope that weak world demand and commodity prices do not lead to an overall bout of deflation and force the Fed to reverse course.
In his annual letter to shareholders, Fink, who is also the CEO of BlackRock (blk), singled out the growing trend of negative
interest rates as a «particularly worrying» development in the
global economy.
Such risks, uncertainties and other factors include, without limitation: (1) the effect of economic conditions in the industries and markets in which United Technologies and Rockwell Collins operate in the U.S. and globally and any changes therein, including financial market conditions, fluctuations in commodity prices,
interest rates and foreign currency exchange
rates, levels of end market demand in construction and in both the commercial and defense segments of the aerospace industry, levels of air travel, financial condition of commercial airlines, the impact of weather conditions and natural disasters and the financial condition of our customers and suppliers; (2) challenges in the development, production, delivery, support, performance and realization of the anticipated benefits of advanced technologies and new products and services; (3) the scope, nature, impact or timing of acquisition and divestiture or restructuring activity, including the pending acquisition of Rockwell Collins, including among other things integration of acquired businesses into United Technologies» existing businesses and realization of synergies and opportunities for growth and innovation; (4) future timing and levels of indebtedness, including indebtedness expected to be incurred by United Technologies in connection with the pending Rockwell Collins acquisition, and capital spending and research and development spending, including in connection with the pending Rockwell Collins acquisition; (5) future availability of credit and factors that may affect such availability, including credit market conditions and our capital structure; (6) the timing and scope of future repurchases of United Technologies» common stock, which may be suspended at any time due to various factors, including market conditions and the level of other investing activities and uses of cash, including in connection with the proposed acquisition of Rockwell; (7) delays and disruption in delivery of materials and services from suppliers; (8) company and customer - directed cost reduction efforts and restructuring costs and savings and other consequences thereof; (9) new business and investment opportunities; (10) our ability to realize the intended benefits of organizational changes; (11) the anticipated benefits of diversification and balance of operations across product lines, regions and industries; (12) the outcome of legal proceedings, investigations and other contingencies; (13) pension plan assumptions and future contributions; (14) the impact of the negotiation of collective bargaining agreements and labor disputes; (15) the effect of changes in political conditions in the U.S. and other countries in which United Technologies and Rockwell Collins operate, including the effect of changes in U.S. trade policies or the U.K.'s pending withdrawal from the EU, on general market conditions,
global trade policies and currency exchange
rates in the near term and beyond; (16) the effect of changes in tax (including U.S. tax reform enacted on December 22, 2017, which is commonly referred to
as the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act of 2017), environmental, regulatory (including among other things import / export) and other laws and regulations in the U.S. and other countries in which United Technologies and Rockwell Collins operate; (17) the ability of United Technologies and Rockwell Collins to receive the required regulatory approvals (and the risk that such approvals may result in the imposition of conditions that could adversely affect the combined company or the expected benefits of the merger) and to satisfy the other conditions to the closing of the pending acquisition on a timely basis or at all; (18) the occurrence of events that may give rise to a right of one or both of United Technologies or Rockwell Collins to terminate the merger agreement, including in circumstances that might require Rockwell Collins to pay a termination fee of $ 695 million to United Technologies or $ 50 million of expense reimbursement; (19) negative effects of the announcement or the completion of the merger on the market price of United Technologies» and / or Rockwell Collins» common stock and / or on their respective financial performance; (20) risks related to Rockwell Collins and United Technologies being restricted in their operation of their businesses while the merger agreement is in effect; (21) risks relating to the value of the United Technologies» shares to be issued in connection with the pending Rockwell acquisition, significant merger costs and / or unknown liabilities; (22) risks associated with third party contracts containing consent and / or other provisions that may be triggered by the Rockwell merger agreement; (23) risks associated with merger - related litigation or appraisal proceedings; and (24) the ability of United Technologies and Rockwell Collins, or the combined company, to retain and hire key personnel.
Stocks fell across the board Wednesday
as the year's final fiscal quarter opened to a market sell - off spurred by concerns over mounting
global crises, including the first domestic case of Ebola,
as well
as the looming possibility of an
interest rate hike.
Global market volatility persisted this week,
as investors remained nervous on China's slowing economy along with a possible
interest rate increase at the U.S. Federal Reserve's mid-September meeting.
In addition,
interest rates on U.S. Treasury bonds are used
as barometers for determining
global economic health [9], and
as pegs for many other
interest rates, including American mortgage and student loan
rates [10, 11].
The uptrend in US
interest rates, wide swings in
global currency markets and greater price dispersion across individual securities and asset classes could serve
as powerful tailwinds for hedge - fund strategy managers looking to capture alpha.
The U.S. dollar depreciated
as investors sought higher returns elsewhere, putting downward pressure on foreign
interest rates and upward pressure on
global asset prices and foreign currencies.
A number of factors — such
as rising US
interest rates, the recurrence of big fluctuations in
global currencies, and the widening dispersion of equity returns across sectors and regions — may have helped to create an increasingly conducive environment for hedge - fund strategies, which have seen a positive turnaround in performance in recent quarters.
The
interest rate on the U.S. government's 10 - year Treasury fell below 2 percent on Tuesday morning for the first time since mid-October,
as fears over
global growth led a flight to safety.
While there are some signs of recognition such
as the Fed's reduction in its estimated neutral
rate from 4.5 percent to 3.0 percent during the last 2 years, the IMF's explicit use of the term secular stagnation in its World Economic Outlook, ECB president Mario Draghi's call for
global coordination and greater use of fiscal policy, and Japan's indicated
interest in fiscal - monetary cooperation, policymakers still have not made sufficiently radical adjustments in their world view to reflect this new reality of a world where generating adequate nominal GDP growth is likely to be the primary macroeconomic policy challenge for the next decade.
However,
as the
global economic recovery continues, long - term
interest rates in Canada and elsewhere will nonetheless start to slowly rise.
Global growth could be impeded by a central bank making a policy mistake, such
as raising
interest rates too aggressively with regard to timing or frequency.
Global interest rates seem poised to rise further
as major central banks strike increasingly hawkish tones.
Since the
global financial crisis in 2008 - 09, a combination of low inflation expectations and a bond - buying program by the Federal Reserve have helped keep bond yields low but they have climbed this year
as inflation has picked up and the Federal Reserve raised
interest rates.
Even though I know nothing about the iron ore market, and certainly not
as much
as the CEO of Fortescue, I know arithmetic, and even before I heard Minack's discussion of the
global increase in production, I simply could not get the arithmetic that connected Chinese
interest rates with Australian iron ore exports to work otherwise.
Finance Minister Jim Flaherty says Canada will face
global pressure to raise
interest rates in 2014,
as the United States begins to step back from its policy of extraordinary economic stimulus through intervention in bond markets.
Meanwhile, capital continues to leave domestic equity funds
as investors de-risk in the face of
global macroeconomic uncertainty and the possibility of rising
interest rates in the U.S. this year.
As a currency it enjoys
global recognition, is not bound by the FX exchanges or
interest rates of any country and transaction fees are very low.
Meanwhile, some of the external factors that helped to drive profit growth in the past three decades, such
as global labor arbitrage and falling
interest rates, are reaching their limits.
As a new source of revenue for the banks in place of loans to domestic real estate and industry, low
interest rates enabled them to flood the
global economy with credit.
Long - term treasuries will likely still work
as ballast when it matters most (
global risk - off events), but we see short - term U.S. debt now offering compelling income, along with a healthy buffer against the risk of further
interest rate rises.
Historic correlations have also become unhinged,
as the market's participants start to question the implications of
global central banks normalizing
interest rates.
The 2008 financial crisis saw
interest rates in the UK fall to historical lows of 0.50 percent in March 2009,
as the central bank went all out to help the UK economy recover from the
global liquidity crunch.
Some of the most notable examples of this include Gross Domestic Product (GDP), Inflation, and
Interest Rates,
as these market elements can give a great deal of information with respect to the economic health of a specific region and of the
global economy
as a whole.
As the Federal Reserve lays the ground to raise U.S.
interest rates for the first time in nearly a decade, it should weigh the effects of its decisions on
global economies and expect some bouts of volatility in financial markets, a top Fed official said on Tuesday.
The
global economy is struggling to cope with a barrage of hard conditions such
as uncontrolled money printing, trade wars, sanctions, increasing
interest rates and a decline in retail trade.
As we covered this spring (WILTW May 25, 2017), the International Monetary Fund's annual
Global Financial Stability report included a stark warning about the health of the U.S. economy: 22 % of U.S. corporations are at risk of default if
interest rates rise.
Rising
interest rates at the same time
as global financial distress can be a potent combination,
as they were in 2006 and 2007.
Be willing to change your strategy
as global markets, tax policies and
interest -
rate environments shift.
The organization cited slower growth in emerging markets, especially in China, falling commodity prices, and rising
interest rates in the U.S.
as potential risks to
global growth.
ANSWER: - Morgan Stanley's
Global Investment Committee supports that
interest rate normalization will provide headwind for investors using bonds for principal preservation,
as rates rise its likely longer duration bonds will fall.
-- 4 reasons why «gold has entered a new bull market» — Schroders — Market complacency is key to gold bull market say Schroders — Investors are currently pricing in the most benign risk environment in history
as seen in the VIX — History shows gold has the potential to perform very well in periods of stock market weakness (see chart)-- You should buy insurance when insurers don't believe that the «risk event» will happen — Very high Chinese gold demand, negative
global interest rates and a weak dollar should push gold higher
I think over the past 10 years, due to the zero -
interest -
rate policies by the
global central banks, we have had a massive amount of debt issuance that's occurred
as investors had been encouraged to go out the curve or down the credit curve in order to seek income, seek yield.
When the U.S. FED went to an extreme low
interest rate, the U.S. DOLLAR became a funding currency
as the U.S. became a much less attractive place for
global capital flows.
Instead, factors such
as inflation,
interest rates and
global growth are much more important to markets.
In part this increase was due to an increase in the cash
rate in light of inflationary pressures building on the back of the boom in the resource sector,
as well
as reflecting the increasing return to capital in Australia at that time; thereafter,
interest rates declined sharply in response to the
global financial crisis.
Banks and other financial companies slumped
as investors speculated that the
global economic uncertainty caused by Britain's decision to leave the EU will prompt the Federal Reserve to hold off on raising its benchmark
interest rate.
Talk about a green light situation, leading up to last Friday's release of the February employment data, the investing landscape had three forces acting
as potential headwinds to an otherwise secular bullish trend — increasing
interest rates, rising inflation and
global trade tariffs.
But the roots are
global as well and at least one of the roots is financial repression which is the major central bank's policies over the last nine years of recovery to drop
interest rates to zero to buy risk assets, to push investors into risk assets and generate a lot of liquidity and credit.
The
global stock markets were cascading lower
as the Nikkei and German DAX took out their lows made the night of the BOJ's surprise move to a three - tiered negative
interest rate policy.
Global equity sentiment remains a bit shaky
as concerns over rising commodity prices and higher
interest rates continue to suggest lower corporate margins for the...
The U.S. software firm debuted even
as Brexit,
interest rates and other
global concerns have stalled most new listings.
Global equity sentiment remains a bit shaky
as concerns over rising commodity prices and higher
interest rates continue to suggest lower corporate margins for the remainder of 2018.
Our increased allocations to
global equities, inflation - protection securities and simultaneous reduction of
interest -
rate - sensitive assets, such
as real estate investment trusts, support such an outcome.
Since then, the broad market has essentially gone sideways, though capitalization - weighted indices such
as the S&P 500 have recently clawed to new highs on enthusiasm about negative
interest rates abroad (which I believe actually reflect fresh deterioration in
global economic conditions across Britain, Europe, Japan, and China).