So Nielsen - Gammon is correct to note that some of the slowed surface temperature warming over the past decade can be attributed to La Niña, although there have been other influences at play as well, such
as human aerosol emissions.
Not exact matches
Now, research suggests that for the past decade, such stratospheric
aerosols — injected into the atmosphere by either recent volcanic eruptions or
human activities such
as coal burning — are slowing down global warming.
Another source of uncertainty comes from the direct effect of
aerosols from
human origins: How much do they reflect and absorb sunlight directly
as particles?
Each model had run simulations that included anthropogenic climate influences like
human - released greenhouse gases and
aerosols as well
as simulations run without those
human influences.
The researchers [3] quantified China's current contribution to global «radiative forcing» (the imbalance, of
human origin, of our planet's radiation budget), by differentiating between the contributions of long - life greenhouse gases, the ozone and its precursors,
as well
as aerosols.
The sulfuric acid condensed into minute droplets — each two hundred times finer than the width of a
human hair — that could easily remain suspended in the air
as an
aerosol cloud.
The computer model determines how the average surface temperature responds to changing natural factors, such
as volcanoes and the sun, and
human factors — greenhouse gases,
aerosol pollutants, and so on.
Non-polar glacial ice holds a wealth of information about past changes in climate, the environment and especially atmospheric composition, such
as variations in temperature, atmospheric concentrations of greenhouse gases and emissions of natural
aerosols or
human - made pollutants... The glaciers therefore hold the memory of former climates and help to predict future environmental changes.
Human - generated
aerosols can enter the atmosphere directly,
as is the case with soot emitted by internal combustion engines in cars and trucks, he explains.
To the contrary,
as there is an inverse correlation between low cloud cover and solar irradiation, and solar / volcanic have influences in the stratosphere, non-excisting for CO2 or
human made
aerosols.
The team evaluated simulated cloud fields from the multi-scale
aerosol - climate model and examined how specific
human - caused
aerosols, such
as sulfate, black carbon (soot), and organic carbon affect those clouds and, in turn, the climate.
When
aerosols from
human activities such
as industrial plant and vehicle emissions are added to the system, the energy budget has to deal with the increase.
Airborne particles in the form of naturally occurring dusts and
human - produced
aerosols can serve
as ice nuclei, sites around which water vapor condenses into clouds.
Thus to provide the clearest picture of the CO2 effect, we approximate the net future change of
human - made non-CO2 forcings
as zero and we exclude future changes of natural climate forcings, such
as solar irradiance and volcanic
aerosols.
Canine cough is spread via
aerosol (infectious particles in the air) and moves through shelters and kennels much the same
as a
human cold virus moves through a day care centre.
If we have had 1C of warming (giss) since pre-industrial and
human made
aerosols are masking between 0.5 and 1.1 (Samset et al) and there is warming «in the pipeline»
as well — has the possibility of a 1.5 C target already passed?
This has been partly masked by a negative
human aerosol forcing so far, but that masking will likely become smaller
as more people will demand cleaner air.
Such factors include increased greenhouse gas concentrations associated with fossil fuel burning, sulphate
aerosols produced
as an industrial by - product,
human - induced changes in land surface properties among other things.
As for longer trends, there are of course other factors that could play a role, but you perhaps don't realise that the association of the trends over the last few decades with
human forcings (which include other GHGs,
aerosols, land use, ozone depletion etc.) are not just based on a correlations.
Some question remains
as to how much of the temporary slowdown in surface warming is due to
human aerosol emissions, how much due to ENSO, how much due to heat being transferred to the deep oceans, and so forth.
It seems ironic therefore, but plausible all the same, that an episode of cooling through «natural» SRM might be more readily interpreted
as an «emergency» and (ab) used to justify
human efforts to take control of the climate system through stratospheric
aerosol injection than accelerated warming.
Researchers say levels of
human - made
aerosols are expected to decline during the 21st century
as countries begin adopting cleaner methods of power generation.
Scientists found that emissions of tiny air particles from
human - made sources — known
as anthropogenic
aerosols — were the cause.
Fertilizer production will almost certainly keep growing to keep pace with
human population, but the amount of
aerosols created
as a result depends on many factors, including air temperature, precipitation, season, time of day, wind patterns and of course the other needed ingredients from industrial or natural sources.
And, volcanic eruptions are very different from
human produced
aerosols as they put the
aerosol into the stratosphere, rather than the troposphere.
However, many of the
aerosols scientists have suggested using, such
as diamond dust or alumina, are harmful to the ozone (a layer that protects the Earth's surface from some of the sun's ultraviolet rays) and
human health.
The (lack of) skill of the current GCM's always wondered me and I have been suspicious about the use of
human aerosols as a convenient «tuning knob» to fit the past, and even so not so good, especially not in current times where the reduction of
aerosols in the Western world is near fully compensated by the increase in SE Asia.
This would be some combination of warmings and coolings due to natural and / or
human influences such
as aerosols, instabilities in ocean currents, Length - Of - Day (LOD) fluctuations, the stadium wave (Wyatt and Curry), the 3M effect (me, December 17, Global Environmental Change section, this AGU Fall Meeting), etc. etc..
Associated with
human greenhouse gas production is the release of fine particle known
as aerosols which have a temporary cooling effect (they last in the atmosphere less than a week).
This reimagined Anthropocene rests on a seamless transition from the fact that
humans have always modified their environments to a defense of a postmodern «cyber nature» under
human supervision,
as if there is no qualitative difference between fire - stick farming and spraying sulfate
aerosols into the stratosphere to regulate Earth's temperature.
The computer model determines how the average surface temperature responds to changing natural factors, such
as volcanoes and the sun, and
human factors — greenhouse gases,
aerosol pollutants, and so on.
The formation of cloud droplets and cloud ice crystals is associated with suspended
aerosols, which are produced by natural processes
as well
as human activities and are ubiquitous in Earth's atmosphere.
My question woiuld be: What happens when
human related forcing such
as aerosols, sulfur emission, etc. act in opposition to other
human related forcing such
as greenhouse gas emissions?
These NCA emissions directly affect particle concentrations and
human exposure to nanosized
aerosol in urban areas, and potentially may act
as nanosized condensation nuclei for the condensation of atmospheric low - volatile organic compounds.
It is simple: inject millions of tons of sulphate
aerosols into the stratosphere at carefully chosen locations, and keep on doing so for
as long
as humans continue to burn fossil fuels and release greenhouse gases into the atmosphere.
The volumes of sulphate
aerosols that would need to be flown to stratospheric heights and released each year would continue to grow
as humans went on burning ever more fossil fuels.
We have recently discussed several papers which have found substantial global dimming
as a result of increased
human aerosol emissions from 1950 to 1980 and 2000 to 2010.
Aerosols have both natural and human sources, so if we just assume aerosol concentration variation in the atmosphere will continue as it has for the last 165 years, then future AGW can be projected with TCR (1 + beta) where beta is the historical fraction of CO2 radiative forcing caused by all other GHG and a
Aerosols have both natural and
human sources, so if we just assume
aerosol concentration variation in the atmosphere will continue
as it has for the last 165 years, then future AGW can be projected with TCR (1 + beta) where beta is the historical fraction of CO2 radiative forcing caused by all other GHG and
aerosolsaerosols.
Assessment of natural and anthropogenic (
human - caused) influences indicate that the climate system would be relatively stable without industrial atmospheric influences such
as greenhouse gases and
aerosols.
«In today's world,
human generated
aerosols, pollutants, serve
as cloud condensation nuclei,» says Kump.
As just one example, the failure of the IPCC prediction of 0.2 C warming for the first decade of the 21st century has been rationalized in many ways: «it was correct except for... unplanned natural variability, an unexpected shift in ENSO, above - normal
human aerosols, etc.» (add in any rationalization that sounds good at the time).
For instance, Bond et al. report that black carbon
aerosol, or soot, is second only to carbon dioxide
as the substance emitted by
human activity that has the greatest warming influence on the climate — contributing a quarter (or perhaps even a bit more) to the current overall anthropogenic warming effect.
According to Steffen, there are two approaches to modelling
human effects on climate — either include anthropogenic factors such
as greenhouse gases,
aerosols and land use in conventional climate models, or use an economics approach.
The black line, reconstructed from ISCCP satellite data, «is a purely statistical parameter that has little physical meaning
as it does not account for the non-linear relations between cloud and surface properties and planetary albedo and does not include
aerosol related albedo changes such
as associated with Mt. Pinatubo, or
human emissions of sulfates for instance» (Real Climate).
This thinning, which can decrease the ozone concentration by
as much
as 70 percent, was caused by the rampant use of
human - made chlorofluorocarbons (CFCs), organic compounds that were once widely used in cooling systems and
aerosols.
As aerosol pollution is predicted to decrease over the next few decades, unmasking of the greenhouse effect may lead to accelerated global warming.storms and ocean plankton The
human - generated
aerosols are derived from industry, motor vehicles and vegetation burning.
Global Climate Change Another Dire Global Warming Effect: 10 Times
as Many Ocean Dead Zones Global Warming to Blame for 37 % of Droughts
Human - Generated
Aerosols May be Masking the Warming Effects of Climate Change
If the first order
human climate forcings (e.g., agriculture & deforestation changes in methane emissions, albedo, and
aerosols) other than CO2 emissions are positive and the same order of magnitude
as CO2, then the CO2 sensitivity must be lower.
The identification of other, sometimes more powerful, greenhouse gases such
as methane, the contributions to atmospheric carbon dioxide from other
human activities such
as deforestation and cement manufacture, better understanding of the temperature - changing properties of atmospheric pollution such
as sulphur emissions,
aerosols and their importance in the post-1940s northern hemisphere cooling: the knowledge - base was increasing year by year.
As is, the huge uncertainty about
aerosols means that in principle net
human impact on climate could have always netted out to something close to zero with most of the temperature change due to natural trends.