The iconic climate curve, a combination of observed land and ocean temperatures, has quite a few ups and downs, most of which climate scientists can easily associate with natural phenomena such
as large volcanic eruptions or El Nino events.
It is true that there are some orbital cycles that operate on thousands, tens of thousands and hundred thousand year cycles but this has no bearing on short term perturbations such
as a large volcanic eruption, a large release of methane clathrates or a large injection of anthropogenic CO2.
Not exact matches
Unrest at
large calderas rarely ends in
eruption, encouraging vulnerable communities to perceive emergency warnings of
volcanic activity
as false alarms.
The spatial deposition of sulfur particles in the bipolar ice cores,
as calculated in the model, agrees well with the actually measured deposits of
large volcanic eruptions, such
as Pinatubo in 1991 or even of Tambora of 1815.
After
large volcanic eruptions that pump sulphur dioxide into the atmosphere, such
as that of mount Pinatubo in the Philippines in 1991, the planet cools for a year or two.
Using an interdisciplinary approach that combined evidence from climate modelling of
large 20th - century
eruptions, annual measurements of Nile summer flood heights from the Islamic Nilometer — the longest - known human record of environmental variability — between 622 and 1902,
as well
as descriptions of Nile flood quality in ancient papyri and inscriptions from the Ptolemaic era, the authors show how
large volcanic eruptions impacted on Nile river flow, reducing the height of the agriculturally - critical summer flood.
Infrasound signals can remain strong
as they travel over
large distances, making them useful for pinpointing the location and size of events such
as nuclear explosions, meteorite strikes,
volcanic eruptions and sometimes earthquake ruptures.
Large quantities of mercury are also released by natural processes such
as volcanic eruptions, forest fires and erosion.
NATURAL catastrophes such
as asteroid impacts, massive
volcanic eruptions or
large - scale wildfires would have periodically plunged our planet into abnormal darkness.
Some geologists speculate that massive
volcanic eruptions covering areas
as large as modern continents triggered the release of methane buried in the ocean floor, causing a greenhouse effect.
Two years earlier, the ash from an unusually
large number of major
volcanic eruptions reflected so much sunlight that 1816 became known
as the year without a summer.
«The researchers also calculated the likely effect of remediation on the ozone layer, but found that ozone depletion would be short - lived and similar to that resulting from natural processes such
as large solar storms and
volcanic eruptions.»
Perhaps in the future a
large volcanic eruption (VEI 5 - 6 or greater) may cause 1 - 2 °C swings in global temperatures
as they rise further
as we go from enhanced greenhouse effect to enhanced reductions in insolation from thicker sulfuric acid vails.
«We are using Io
as a
volcanic laboratory, where we can look back into the past of the terrestrial planets to get a better understanding of how these
large eruptions took place, and how fast and how long they lasted,» Davies said.
Climate scientists have also attempted to estimate climate sensitivity based on the response to recent
large volcanic eruptions, such
as Mount Pinatubo in 1991.
The short - term variations are dominated by ENSO but also can be influenced by
large tropical
volcanic eruptions (such
as occurred in 1963, 1982 and, markedly, 1991), so the years after those
eruptions are anomalously cool.
In Earth's past the trigger for these greenhouse gas emissions was often unusually massive
volcanic eruptions known
as «
Large Igneous Provinces,» with knock - on effects that included huge releases of CO2 and methane from organic - rich sediments.
«We are using Io
as a
volcanic laboratory, where we can look back into the past of the terrestrial planets to get a better understanding of how these
large eruptions took place, and how fast and how long they lasted,» states Davies.
Santorini
as a whole has a
large half moon like bay due to a
large volcanic eruption that collapsed the center of the island covering the current inhabitants and creating the bay.
Katmai was established
as a Preserve in 1918 to protect the region surrounding Mount Katmai and the Valley of Ten Thousand Smokes that was devastated by the
largest volcanic eruption of the 20th Century.
Read about the fear and awe local residents felt
as the skies darkened and ash rained from the sky in Witness: First Hand Accounts of the
Largest Volcanic Eruption of the 20th Century.
The
largest eruption of the 20th Century inspired a
large amount of research on the connection between
volcanic eruptions and the Earth's atmosphere in the 12 years since that
eruption,
as exemplified by the chapters in this book.
As an example of this, we do have a pretty good understanding of how
large volcanic eruptions affect global temperatures.
Note that in the last piece, Tamino points out the coincidence of two very
large volcanic eruptions early in the «dalton minimum,» which
as many have noted, may account for the oddities of the weather more than the solar magnetic activity.
Undoubtedly,
volcanic eruptions have contributed some atmospheric CO2, but this can only be miniscule
as neither the 1991 Pinatubo
eruption (
largest of the century), nor the 1986 Lake Nyos CO2
eruption that killed thousands, so much
as registered a blip in the Mauna Loa CO2 record.
In fact, it is possible to have some frost rings without any evidence of explosive volcanism, presumably occurring due to extremes in local weather, but,
as shown above, they do seem to record
large volcanic eruptions in recent times very well indeed.
Sulphate aerosols from a
large volcanic eruption can do so, such
as Pinatubo in 1991 - 93.
I've sometimes thought that global cataclysms like the
largest volcanic eruptions would disrupt the glacial records by many years, like Oruanui
eruption c. 26500bp,
as these would induce unrecorded behavior in weather and other things, f.e. the huge ash deposits might decrease the albedo so much a local melting event happens.
«The researchers also calculated the likely effect of remediation on the ozone layer, but found that ozone depletion would be short - lived and similar to that resulting from natural processes such
as large solar storms and
volcanic eruptions.»
Scenario A was described
as «on the high side of reality,» because it assumed rapid exponential growth of GHGs and it included no
large volcanic eruptions during the next half century.
Scientists at the Pacific Northwest National Laboratory and the Bonneville Power Administration think underground porous rocks produced by
volcanic eruptions could be used
as a
large battery system.
At CEC14, Bjørn Samset presented modelling which suggested the possibility of deploying short - lived greenhouse gases, such
as forms of HFC, to counter the effects of a
large volcanic eruption.
And lots of people imagine we could be entering a cooler period in next couple decades, and most are not allowing or counting on, that we could have a
large volcanic eruption as part of the mix.
Volcanism is another key driver of historical climate changes, and we have compared the modeled response to
large volcanic eruptions with historical data
as well.
This played an important role
as the injection of
volcanic material was so
large in the Toba
eruption that some chemical processes saturated, leading to a longer presence of sulfur - containing particles in the stratosphere.
Other dips, such
as the one in the mid-1990s, are associated with
large volcanic eruptions.
«Since 1997, when Pinatubo's aerosol settled out, the stratosphere has been exceptionally clear... Half or more of the warming since 1995 may due to the lack of
large volcanic eruptions... That's about 0.13 °C... The remaining climate change is presumably caused by other forces, such
as solar variability, El Nino, Atlantic AMO warming in 1995, lower Albedo and maybe even a little greenhouse gas.»
Current computer models can faithfully simulate many of the important aspects of the global climate system, such
as changes in global average temperature over many decades; the march of the seasons on
large spatial scales; and how the climate responds to
large - scale forcing, like a
large volcanic eruption.
2) There are errors in the assumed forcings, such
as: a) AR5 let stratospheric aerosol concentration go to zero after 2000 (a sure way to prod the models into higher predictions), but it actually increased for the next 10 years «probably due to a
large number of small
volcanic eruptions».
The technique, which is known
as «stratospheric aerosol injection», could cool the planet in a similar way to a
large volcanic eruption.
92) If one factors in non-greenhouse influences such
as El Nino events and
large volcanic eruptions, lower atmosphere satellite - based temperature measurements show little, if any, global warming since 1979, a period over which atmospheric CO2 has increased by 55 ppm (17 per cent).
Large volcanic eruptions eject sulfur dioxide, which rapidly forms tiny particles in the air known
as «aerosols» that block sunlight.
The short - term variations are dominated by ENSO but also can be influenced by
large tropical
volcanic eruptions (such
as occurred in 1963, 1982 and, markedly, 1991), so the years after those
eruptions are anomalously cool.
But the data shows that
volcanic eruptions do NOT cause the
large effects that they would perforce have if the sensitivity to forcing were
as large as they claim.
Moreover, using long time periods for averaging makes it impossible to avoid major
volcanic eruptions, which involve uncertainty
as to the
large forcing excursions involved and their effects.
Re decadal regression, decades to years ending in a five,
as in Marvel et al, are not ideal since several
large volcanic eruptions were going on a year or two before the end of the decade.
However, detecting acceleration is difficult because of (i) interannual variability in GMSL largely driven by changes in terrestrial water storage (TWS)(7 ⇓ — 9), (ii) decadal variability in TWS (10), thermosteric sea level, and ice sheet mass loss (11) that might masquerade
as a long - term acceleration over a 25 - y record, (iii) episodic variability driven by
large volcanic eruptions (12), and (iv) errors in the altimeter data, in particular, potential drifts in the instruments over time (13).