Atmospheric circulation, temperature, water vapour, and clouds are examined; as well
as ocean temperature anomalies, currents, and behaviour are discussed.
Not exact matches
The westerlies in the Northern Hemisphere, which increased from the 1960s to the 1990s but which have since returned to about normal
as part of NAO and NAM changes, alter the flow from
oceans to continents and are a major cause of the observed changes in winter storm tracks and related patterns of precipitation and
temperature anomalies, especially over Europe.
During El Nino events the
ocean circulation changes in such a way
as to cause a large and temporary positive sea surface
temperature anomaly in the tropical Pacific.
All siding with its infinite growth paradigm, so I'm not surprised to see you writing counter-pieces to the harsh truth, which,
as it stands, is that we have a pretty much dead and severely warming
ocean, daily record - breaking jet - stream related weather incidents, which in turn are caused by polar
temperature anomalies of +20 C
as of late.
McIntyre has a new post where he tries to rescue the previous «projections» — but he confuses the changes in HadSST (
ocean temperatures, which he is plotting) and the changes in HadCRUT3 (the global surface air
temperature anomaly) which is what his projection was for (
as can be seen in the figures in the main post).
As far as I can see you got the tied for 10th highest GISTemp anomaly part right (I assume you have the Land - Ocean Temperature Index in mind, not the land only numbers) but my spreadsheet disagrees with your claim that the average anomaly for 2013 to date would put it in 3rd place — I get 9t
As far
as I can see you got the tied for 10th highest GISTemp anomaly part right (I assume you have the Land - Ocean Temperature Index in mind, not the land only numbers) but my spreadsheet disagrees with your claim that the average anomaly for 2013 to date would put it in 3rd place — I get 9t
as I can see you got the tied for 10th highest GISTemp
anomaly part right (I assume you have the Land -
Ocean Temperature Index in mind, not the land only numbers) but my spreadsheet disagrees with your claim that the average
anomaly for 2013 to date would put it in 3rd place — I get 9th.
England et al. suggest that the recent Pacific
Ocean surface
temperature anomalies are related to a strengthening of Pacific trade winds in the past two decades, and that warming is likely to accelerate
as the trade wind
anomaly abates.
Canadian Ice Service, 4.7, Multiple Methods
As with CIS contributions in June 2009, 2010, and 2011, the 2012 forecast was derived using a combination of three methods: 1) a qualitative heuristic method based on observed end - of - winter arctic ice thicknesses and extents, as well as an examination of Surface Air Temperature (SAT), Sea Level Pressure (SLP) and vector wind anomaly patterns and trends; 2) an experimental Optimal Filtering Based (OFB) Model, which uses an optimal linear data filter to extrapolate NSIDC's September Arctic Ice Extent time series into the future; and 3) an experimental Multiple Linear Regression (MLR) prediction system that tests ocean, atmosphere and sea ice predictor
As with CIS contributions in June 2009, 2010, and 2011, the 2012 forecast was derived using a combination of three methods: 1) a qualitative heuristic method based on observed end - of - winter arctic ice thicknesses and extents,
as well as an examination of Surface Air Temperature (SAT), Sea Level Pressure (SLP) and vector wind anomaly patterns and trends; 2) an experimental Optimal Filtering Based (OFB) Model, which uses an optimal linear data filter to extrapolate NSIDC's September Arctic Ice Extent time series into the future; and 3) an experimental Multiple Linear Regression (MLR) prediction system that tests ocean, atmosphere and sea ice predictor
as well
as an examination of Surface Air Temperature (SAT), Sea Level Pressure (SLP) and vector wind anomaly patterns and trends; 2) an experimental Optimal Filtering Based (OFB) Model, which uses an optimal linear data filter to extrapolate NSIDC's September Arctic Ice Extent time series into the future; and 3) an experimental Multiple Linear Regression (MLR) prediction system that tests ocean, atmosphere and sea ice predictor
as an examination of Surface Air
Temperature (SAT), Sea Level Pressure (SLP) and vector wind
anomaly patterns and trends; 2) an experimental Optimal Filtering Based (OFB) Model, which uses an optimal linear data filter to extrapolate NSIDC's September Arctic Ice Extent time series into the future; and 3) an experimental Multiple Linear Regression (MLR) prediction system that tests
ocean, atmosphere and sea ice predictors.
Canadian Ice Service, 4.7 (+ / - 0.2), Heuristic / Statistical (same
as June) The 2015 forecast was derived by considering a combination of methods: 1) a qualitative heuristic method based on observed end - of - winter Arctic ice thickness extents,
as well
as winter Surface Air
Temperature, Sea Level Pressure and vector wind
anomaly patterns and trends; 2) a simple statistical method, Optimal Filtering Based Model (OFBM), that uses an optimal linear data filter to extrapolate the September sea ice extent timeseries into the future and 3) a Multiple Linear Regression (MLR) prediction system that tests
ocean, atmosphere and sea ice predictors.
Third, note how the sea surface
temperature anomalies in the Western Pacific (and East Indian
Ocean) continue to rise
as the La Niña event strengthens.
to be consistent, either we should have 100 points measuring the
temperature on a specific hour of the day on mountains and in the
ocean, and no average world
temperature, or we should do the same with CO2, measure high for the day, low for the day, average, and make a global average from many regions, and then define an
anomaly on the same interval
as the
temperature anomaly in order to be consistent.
Some processes arise through interactions with other parts of the climate system such
as the
ocean (for example
as manifested through sea surface
temperature anomalies), sea ice
anomalies, snow cover
anomalies as well
as through coupling to the circulation in the stratosphere.
Canadian Ice Service; 5.0; Statistical
As with Canadian Ice Service (CIS) contributions in June 2009 and June 2010, the 2011 forecast was derived using a combination of three methods: 1) a qualitative heuristic method based on observed end - of - winter Arctic Multi-Year Ice (MYI) extents, as well as an examination of Surface Air Temperature (SAT), Sea Level Pressure (SLP) and vector wind anomaly patterns and trends; 2) an experimental Optimal Filtering Based (OFB) Model which uses an optimal linear data filter to extrapolate NSIDC's September Arctic Ice Extent time series into the future; and 3) an experimental Multiple Linear Regression (MLR) prediction system that tests ocean, atmosphere, and sea ice predictor
As with Canadian Ice Service (CIS) contributions in June 2009 and June 2010, the 2011 forecast was derived using a combination of three methods: 1) a qualitative heuristic method based on observed end - of - winter Arctic Multi-Year Ice (MYI) extents,
as well as an examination of Surface Air Temperature (SAT), Sea Level Pressure (SLP) and vector wind anomaly patterns and trends; 2) an experimental Optimal Filtering Based (OFB) Model which uses an optimal linear data filter to extrapolate NSIDC's September Arctic Ice Extent time series into the future; and 3) an experimental Multiple Linear Regression (MLR) prediction system that tests ocean, atmosphere, and sea ice predictor
as well
as an examination of Surface Air Temperature (SAT), Sea Level Pressure (SLP) and vector wind anomaly patterns and trends; 2) an experimental Optimal Filtering Based (OFB) Model which uses an optimal linear data filter to extrapolate NSIDC's September Arctic Ice Extent time series into the future; and 3) an experimental Multiple Linear Regression (MLR) prediction system that tests ocean, atmosphere, and sea ice predictor
as an examination of Surface Air
Temperature (SAT), Sea Level Pressure (SLP) and vector wind
anomaly patterns and trends; 2) an experimental Optimal Filtering Based (OFB) Model which uses an optimal linear data filter to extrapolate NSIDC's September Arctic Ice Extent time series into the future; and 3) an experimental Multiple Linear Regression (MLR) prediction system that tests
ocean, atmosphere, and sea ice predictors.
Ocean currents and weather have
as much to do with Artic ice
as temperatures, but UAH for 60 - 85N shows increasing temps from 1991 to 2007, and generally decreasing temp
anomaly since.
«The last century stands out
as the
anomaly in this record of global
temperature since the end of the last ice age,» says Candace Major, program director in the National Science Foundation's (NSF) Division of
Ocean Sciences.
Any discussion on that webpage you linked... https://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/monitoring-references/faq/
anomalies.php... regarding their preference for
anomalies has to do with land surface, not sea surface,
temperatures, which is why their land surface
temperature data and consequently their combined land +
ocean data are presented
as anomalies.
I'm very convinced that the physical process of global warming is continuing, which appears
as a statistically significant increase of the global surface and tropospheric
temperature anomaly over a time scale of about 20 years and longer and also
as trends in other climate variables (e.g., global
ocean heat content increase, Arctic and Antarctic ice decrease, mountain glacier decrease on average and others), and I don't see any scientific evidence according to which this trend has been broken, recently.
Strong, localized sea surface
temperature anomalies may reveal that an
ocean current, such
as the Gulf Stream Current off the east coast of the United States, has veered off its usual path for a time or is stronger or weaker than usual.
To clarify, land
temperature anomalies are recorded
as surface air
temperature, but
ocean temperature records are a more complex function that I believe also incorporates data from the water surface itself.
Over
ocean stretches with a positive SST
anomaly air convection is higher (
as the
temperature difference between the warm sea surface and the cool air higher up in the troposphere is greater), so a higher likelihood for the formation of depressions exists and more precipitation is to be expected.
Canadian Ice Service, 4.7 (± 0.2), Heuristic / Statistical (same
as June) The 2015 forecast was derived by considering a combination of methods: 1) a qualitative heuristic method based on observed end - of - winter Arctic ice thickness extents,
as well
as winter Surface Air
Temperature, Sea Level Pressure and vector wind
anomaly patterns and trends; 2) a simple statistical method, Optimal Filtering Based Model (OFBM), that uses an optimal linear data filter to extrapolate the September sea ice extent timeseries into the future and 3) a Multiple Linear Regression (MLR) prediction system that tests
ocean, atmosphere and sea ice predictors.
The best way to envision the relation between ENSO and precipitation over East Africa is to regard the Indian
Ocean as a mirror of the Pacific
Ocean sea surface
temperature anomalies [much like the Western Hemisphere Warm Pool creates such a SST mirror with the Atlantic
Ocean too]: during a La Niña episode, waters in the eastern Pacific are relatively cool
as strong trade winds blow the tropically Sun - warmed waters far towards the west.
Step 3 involves application of a spatial analysis technique (empirical orthogonal teleconnections, EOTs) to merge and smooth the
ocean and land surface
temperature fields and provide these merged fields
as anomaly fields for
ocean, land and global
temperatures.
Environmental variables estimated over larger spatial and temporal scales included the upwelling index (UI) for 48 ° N, 125 ° W (http://www.pfeg.noaa.gov), an indicator of upwelling strength based on wind stress measurements,
as well
as the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO, http://jisao.washington.edu/pdo/PDO.latest), a composite indicator of
ocean temperature anomalies [33], seawater
temperature from Buoy 46041 ∼ 50 km to the southwest from Tatoosh (www.ndbc.noaa.gov), and remote sensing of chl a (SeaWiFS, AquaModis).
Behavior of the sea ice over the past winter and the spring and the large positive
temperature anomalies in the Arctic (
as high
as 20 degrees C over large regions in the past winter) suggest that an extent near that of the 2012 minimum may occur again if there is large export of sea ice out to the Atlantic
Ocean via the Fram Strait.
Precipitation in the Desert Southwest correlates significantly with solar irradiance lagged 3 and 5 years, which suggests a link with
ocean - water
temperature anomalies transported by the Equatorial Countercurrent
as well
as the North Pacific Gyre.
Overall the global
temperature anomaly is about 0.8 C which is derived
as a 70/30
ocean / land split.
As I understand it global temperatures are calculated as anomalies, thus removing seasonal swings, but that Heat Content is not, Now our dear planet has an elliptical orbit and is sometimes closer to the sun that others; sure, the shape of the land and oceans doesn't mean that the amount of incoming solar radiation falling on the oceans follows the Earths orbit, but it should be possible to work out the amount of incoming solar radiation each quarte
As I understand it global
temperatures are calculated
as anomalies, thus removing seasonal swings, but that Heat Content is not, Now our dear planet has an elliptical orbit and is sometimes closer to the sun that others; sure, the shape of the land and oceans doesn't mean that the amount of incoming solar radiation falling on the oceans follows the Earths orbit, but it should be possible to work out the amount of incoming solar radiation each quarte
as anomalies, thus removing seasonal swings, but that Heat Content is not, Now our dear planet has an elliptical orbit and is sometimes closer to the sun that others; sure, the shape of the land and
oceans doesn't mean that the amount of incoming solar radiation falling on the
oceans follows the Earths orbit, but it should be possible to work out the amount of incoming solar radiation each quarter.
... then why do the vertical mean
temperature anomalies (NODC 0 - 2000 meter data) of the Pacific
Ocean as a whole and of the North Atlantic fail to show any warming over the past decade, a period when ARGO floats have measured subsurface
temperatures, providing reasonably complete coverage of the global
oceans?
We find that over a wide range of values of diapycnal diffusivity and Southern
Ocean winds, and with a variety of changes in surface boundary conditions, the spatial patterns of ocean temperature anomaly are nearly always determined as much or more by the existing heat reservoir redistribution than by the nearly passive uptake of temperature due to changes in the surface boundary condit
Ocean winds, and with a variety of changes in surface boundary conditions, the spatial patterns of
ocean temperature anomaly are nearly always determined as much or more by the existing heat reservoir redistribution than by the nearly passive uptake of temperature due to changes in the surface boundary condit
ocean temperature anomaly are nearly always determined
as much or more by the existing heat reservoir redistribution than by the nearly passive uptake of
temperature due to changes in the surface boundary conditions.