Several factors can have a large impact on short - term temperatures, such
as oceanic cycles like the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) or the 11 - year solar cycle.
There are also a number of effects which can have a large impact on short - term temperatures, such
as oceanic cycles like the El Niño Southern Oscillation or the 11 - year solar cycle.
Several factors can have a large impact on short - term temperatures, such
as oceanic cycles like the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) or the 11 - year solar cycle.
Not exact matches
Seasonal weather fluctuations also depend on factors such
as proximity to oceans or other large bodies of water, currents in those oceans, El Nino / ENSO and other
oceanic cycles, and prevailing winds.
Paul Dirmeyer, a professor in the department of atmospheric,
oceanic and earth sciences at George Mason University who was not involved in the study, notes: «Green et al. put forward an intriguing and exciting new idea, expanding our measures of land - atmospheric feedbacks from mainly a phenomenon of the water and energy
cycles to include the biosphere, both
as a response to climate forcing and a forcing to climate response.»
The consensus is that several factors are important: atmospheric composition (the concentrations of carbon dioxide, methane); changes in the Earth's orbit around the Sun known
as Milankovitch
cycles (and possibly the Sun's orbit around the galaxy); the motion of tectonic plates resulting in changes in the relative location and amount of continental and
oceanic crust on the Earth's surface, which could affect wind and ocean currents; variations in solar output; the orbital dynamics of the Earth - Moon system; and the impact of relatively large meteorites, and volcanism including eruptions of supervolcanoes.
Also,
as it relates to the AGW discussion, since the
oceanic tidal
cycle has such a long duration, wouldn't this
cycle be irrelevant, since AGW has only taken hold over the last 150 years and has such a high rate of temperature increase?
As the LIA lasted only a few centuries, wouldn't the
oceanic tidal
cycles be either irrelevant, or at least not individually responsible for the occurrence of the LIA?
They say that their research shows that much of the warming was caused by
oceanic cycles when they were in a â $ ˜warm modeâ $ ™
as opposed to the present â $ ˜cold modeâ $ ™.
Fossil fuel consumption rates will slowly diminish over the coming decades
as fossil fuels are gradually depleted, and the resultant atmospheric and
oceanic CO2 is predicted by IPCC modelers to END glaciation
cycles and thus, to open much of Canada and Siberia to greatly improved agriculture and forestry.
And
as mentioned above, by dawn the combined effect of clear skies and
oceanic overturning has lost all of the heat of the previous day, and the
cycle starts over again.
It will be hard to identify because,
as I have mentioned in my other articles, the filtering of the solar signal through the various
oceanic cycles is neither rapid nor straightforward.
In some way, that's the engine where all the other variations must be hanged (specially variations in albedo because of clouds - maybe connected with solar
cycles as other authors are trying to prove -, variations in albedo because of sea ice extention, linked with the
oceanic currents -
as in the «stadium wave» that was presented by Curry and others, etc., variations in heat exchange between atmosphere and oceans, and so on.
In short, Swanson and Tsonis hypothesized that when various natural
oceanic cycles (PDO, AMO, etc.) synchronize (i.e. in their positive or negative phases), they can cause a short - term warming or cooling which could be described
as a «climate regime shift.»
The close linkage between the
oceanic and terrestrial water
cycles motivated Li et al. to explore whether salinity signatures can be utilized
as a predictor of terrestrial precipitation.
It takes decades (even centuries) for (deep)
oceanic heat transport to manifest at the surface so we see a combination of short - term heat manifestation
as a result of the 11 yr solar
cycle and longer - term variation.
Thus a decline in solar energy will have an immediate effect if it occurs at a time when the overall balance of all the
oceanic oscillations is negative
as now (2007 to date) when the end of solar
cycle 23 is significantly delayed and the late start of
cycle 24 suggests a weaker
cycle than we have had for some time.
As to the mechanics of both top down solar and bottom up
oceanic influences on the surface air pressure distribution (and thus the movements of the climate zones) I have dealt with that in detail elsewhere so here suffice it to say that all climate change is simply the surface air pressure distribution shifting to accommodate those three primary solar and
oceanic cycles.
It will be hard to identify because,
as I have mentioned in my other articles, the filtering of the solar signal through the various
oceanic cycles is neither rapid nor straightforward and it appears that the effects are caused not by solar irradiance in itself but rather by changes in the mix of wavelengths and particles from the sun
as solar activity varies.
Obviously other very powerful factors play huge roles, such
as natural
oceanic cycles and weather patterns over all Arctic atmospheric layers.
But
as for long - term (decadal)
oceanic events such
as the AMO — do they actually exist
as some sort of real physical
cycle, or are they only a collection of random natural variations that we interpret in our minds
as some sort of «real» thing?
The
oceanic effect is always dominant but the fact is that on 500 year timescales (not necessarily on shorter time scales due to interference from lesser
cycles and chaotic variability) the sun is less active
as per the Maunder Minimum and at the same the oceans were independently releasing energy at a low rate.
«On the basis of the information in the public domain about solar
cycles and the positive PDO it should have been blatantly obvious that the world would warm up without the need to speculate on a contribution from CO2 or anything else... I find Mr. [Alec] Rawls very helpful in illustrating the effect of time lags between solar input and
oceanic oscillations...
As Mr. Rawls points out...