There could, for example, be SOC events reflected in ice sheet dynamics,
as oceanic heat transfer destabilises the Antarctic circulation, leading to acelerated ice sheet destabilisation.
Not exact matches
As significant uncertainties about the thickness of the surface ice still exist, some planetary scientists have identified two possible mechanisms for how possible volcanic
heat can escape to the surface from Europa's rocky mantle and be carried upward by buoyant
oceanic currents.
Possible reasons include increased
oceanic circulation leading to increased subduction of
heat into the ocean, higher than normal levels of stratospheric aerosols due to volcanoes during the past decade, incorrect ozone levels used
as input to the models, lower than expected solar output during the last few years, or poorly modeled cloud feedback effects.
You've got the radiative physics, the measurements of ocean temperature and land temperature, the changes in ocean
heat content (Hint — upwards, whereas if if was just a matter of circulation moving
heat around you might expect something more simple) and of course observed predictions such
as stratospheric cooling which you don't get when warming occurs from
oceanic circulation.
More than 95 % of the 5 yr running mean of the surface temperature change since 1850 can be replicated by an integration of the sunspot data (
as a proxy for ocean
heat content), departing from the average value over the period of the sunspot record (~ 40SSN), plus the superimposition of a ~ 60 yr sinusoid representing the observed
oceanic oscillations.
After reviewing the Levitus et al 2008 papers abstract, (
as I do not have access to the paper it's self), I assumed that the data you were referring to was based on some earlier data sets which seemed to demonstrate a ever increasing distributed localized temperature swing, when subsequent data,
as indicated in the Levitus et al 2008 suggests a systemic imbalance of
oceanic heat content increase in the range of a 0.31 Deg.
Is it not possible that the polar barometric events act
as significant pipelines for the re-emission of the ocean entrapped LW in the first three meters, by transporting the
oceanic heat content energy for stellar release?
Now,
as I pointed out in an earlier post (# 104), there IS some evidence of a trend toward serious
oceanic heating beginning roughly 21 years after 1979 (i.e., 2000), which suggests that this could be due to
heat transfer from the atmosphere beginning in ca 1979.
Victor wrote at 205, «Now,
as I pointed out in an earlier post (# 104), there IS some evidence of a trend toward serious
oceanic heating beginning roughly 21 years after 1979 (i.e., 2000), which suggests that this could be due to
heat transfer from the atmosphere beginning in ca 1979.»
# 192 «For example a strengthening of wind over some
oceanic region http://web.science.unsw.edu.au/~matthew/nclimate2106-incl-SI.pdf then would increase the
heat flow atmosphere - > ocean, leading to lower (dynamic) equilibrium temperature in the atmosphere which of course occurs very fast,
as the thermal mass of the atmosphere is very low compared to the net energy throughput.»
More recently hurricanes have been implicated
as heat pumps responsible for up to 15 % of poleward
oceanic heat transport.
The atmospheric Greenhouse Effect merely sets a theoretical background atmospheric temperature level that is continually overridden
as a result of the size of the constant interlinked changes in both the solar and
oceanic heat inputs.
The
oceanic heat store should be regarded
as an additional
heat source that adds or subtracts the effect of earlier solar irradiance (or lack of it) to or from the present day effect of current solar irradiance.
The
oceanic heat store should be regarded
as an additional
heat source that adds or subtracts the effect of earlier solar irradiance (or lack of it) to or from the present day effect of current solar irradiance over variable periods of time.
The radiative Greenhouse Effect is continually overridden
as a result of the size of the constant interlinked changes in both the solar energy input to the oceans and the
oceanic heat inputs to the atmosphere.
As for Pielke's polite and respectful exchange, his main point that not enough information is known about the phenomena of
oceanic heat transfer.
And
as mentioned above, by dawn the combined effect of clear skies and
oceanic overturning has lost all of the
heat of the previous day, and the cycle starts over again.
The formula is based on known ideas due to Arrhenius in 1896 and Hofmann in 2009 (that the portion of atmospheric CO2 above the preindustrial level is growing exponentially), with the added twist that the
oceanic heat sink delays the impact of radiative forcing variations on HadCRUT3 by 15 years, analogously to the overheating of a CPU being delayed by the addition of a heatsink with no fan, what I refer to
as the Hansen delay.
In some way, that's the engine where all the other variations must be hanged (specially variations in albedo because of clouds - maybe connected with solar cycles
as other authors are trying to prove -, variations in albedo because of sea ice extention, linked with the
oceanic currents -
as in the «stadium wave» that was presented by Curry and others, etc., variations in
heat exchange between atmosphere and oceans, and so on.
Sea ice with its strong seasonal and interannual variability (Fig. 1) is a very critical component of the Arctic system that responds sensitively to changes in atmospheric circulation, incoming radiation, atmospheric and
oceanic heat fluxes,
as well
as the hydrological cycle1, 2.
The presence of summer sea ice in the central Arctic Ocean — despite the elevated air temperatures14, 15, 64 — may have resulted from a reduced total
oceanic heat flux towards the north,
as suggested from (compared to the PI control runs) reduced AMOC patterns during LIG - 130 and LIG - 125 (Fig. 4).
An inverse type of flow develops in the summer
as the continents
heat more rapidly than their adjacent
oceanic areas.
It takes decades (even centuries) for (deep)
oceanic heat transport to manifest at the surface so we see a combination of short - term
heat manifestation
as a result of the 11 yr solar cycle and longer - term variation.
Current events surrounding increased
oceanic heat around ice sheet margins in Antarctic are expected to play a dynamical role in marine terminating glacial ice loss acceleration there
as well.
While the circulation of the Atlantic Ocean has a complex three - dimensional spatial structure, the zonally integrated flow in the basin, referred to
as the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC), is largely responsible for the net northward
oceanic heat transport on climate - relevant timescales.
As you rightly point out, the influence of
oceanic heat - sinks is potentially a large factor and I don't really know how the transfer of energy within it is modelled in terms of difusion, layer mixing and bulk transport.
In which case, half of the global warming in the last three decades is due to the negative feedback of increased poleward
oceanic heat transport
as a result of weaker solar activity.
Climate threshold - The point at which external forcing of the climate system, such
as the increasing atmospheric concentration of
heat - trapping gases (greenhouse gas es), triggers a significant climatic or environmental event which is considered unalterable, or recoverable only on very long time - scales, such
as widespread bleaching of corals or a collapse of
oceanic circulation systems.
The probabilistic analyses of DAI reported in this section draw substantially on (subjective) Bayesian probabilities to describe key uncertainties in the climate system, such
as climate sensitivity, the rate of
oceanic heat uptake, current radiative forcing, and indirect aerosol forcing.
No less astonishing is the prevalence of notion that the sluggish density - driven currents known
as the «thermohaline circulation» are the main mechanism for
oceanic heat redistribution.
But if the
oceanic heat is principally in one place,
as the sea level rise is principally in one place, like the Indian Ocean / Western Pacific, you will get a result that misrepresents what is really going on.
While I'm comfortable with the
heat flow measurements on land, I doubt that the measurements of
oceanic crust are
as reliable.
Thus
as sea ice expands in a cooler climate, the high - latitude
oceanic heat loss to the atmosphere is inhibited, the thermohaline circulation weakens, and the sinking regions move equatorward, leading to a shallower and weaker deep circulation.