«Historically, geopolitical events rarely cause a sustained recession, and other contributing factors, such
as oil price shocks, play a more predominant role.
Only in the event of a large supply shock (such
as the oil price shocks of the 1970s) might any difference in response across the different frameworks become apparent.
The summer edition of the report suggested businesses on the Prairies will be hurt
as the oil price shock spreads across other sectors.
Not exact matches
Given how important
oil has been to the Canadian economy in recent years it shouldn't come
as a huge
shock that the loonie is heavily correlated with the decline in the
price of
oil.
Following the initial
shock of
oil - supply risk, U.S. Treasury bond and related «flight - to - safety» investments tend to lower
oil price trends
as the U.S. dollar appreciates.
While the near - zero balance of opinion suggests that labour market slack remains, the indicator has continued to improve gradually since the
oil price shock,
as conditions in affected regions have bottomed out.
August 30, 2016 — The effects of large
oil price shocks on the Canadian economy are complex,
as is the best response of monetary policy, but getting it wrong can be very costly, according to a new...
This is mostly due to much lower
oil prices after the
oil shock (expected to remain around $ 53 per barrel in the next two years),
as oil proceeds still account for more than 50 % of government revenues.
These
shocks range from a hard and bumpy landing in China to a potential recession in the United States
as the
oil and manufacturing sectors face some duress and
as the unsubsidized
price of money again enters into the equation.
As Stephen Gordon has explained, this is exactly what we should expect from the
oil shock — the
price of things we export has fallen a lot, which makes us poorer.
Crude
oil prices have jumped to almost one - year high's on Monday in a
shocking turn of events
as Russian President Vladimir Putin disclosed that Russia was ready to join the cartel's efforts to reduce global
oil supply.
The second
shock was the sudden drop in resource
prices, particularly for
oil, which represented a significant loss of income for the nation
as a whole — something in the range of $ 50 billion to $ 60 billion per year.
A supply
shock, for example a major
oil price increase, will reduce both actual and potential output,
as well
as raising
prices.
The President appealed for more patience and understanding from Nigerians
as his administration takes steps to safeguard the economy from the
shock of falling
oil prices.
The bank reduced its trend - setting rate twice in 2015 to the very low level of 0.5 per cent to help the economy
as it struggled with the effects of the
oil -
price shock.
We see the decline in
oil prices as being largely due to a positive supply
shock, rather than a weakening of
oil demand.
And Mr. Obama's broader call for an energy revolution also could require him to overcome what he called America's «
shock and trance» cycle
as oil prices spike and collapse.
Some of the poorest countries in the world are so dependent on
oil imports that their already fragile economies have been hit 10 times
as hard
as the U.S. economy by the
oil price shocks of the past years.
Data on the energy intensity of GDP show big variations across time and space, e.g. the sharp decline in US intensity after the
oil shocks of the 1970s, which then flattened out
as prices came down, and the much lower energy intensity of European nations with high gasoline taxes.
Finally, an exogenous
shock to the economy, such
as an
oil price surge or a global war, can tip an economy into the recession.