Sentences with phrase «as prediction uncertainty»

Taking into account the well - known pro-Labour bias in the electoral system as well as prediction uncertainty, the method suggested then that the Tories would have a 64 % chance of being the largest party in parliament.

Not exact matches

As with any type of forecasting exercise, there is always going to be uncertainties associated with the predictions.

Overall, the IMF's prediction for global growth of 3.1 % in 2016 remained subdued, with the institution citing the uncertainty created by the United Kingdom's decision to leave the European Union (EU) and slower - than - expected US growth as restraining factors since its last set of forecasts in April.

With increasing size of the optical arrangement and increasing numbers of photons sent on their way, the number of possible paths and distributions of the photons at the end rises steeply as a result of the uncertainty principle which underlies quantum mechanics — so that there can be no prediction of the exact probability using the computers available to us today.

This exciting prediction is subject to uncertainty as the dates of exoplanet discoveries are only known to the year.

A new integrated climate model developed by Oak Ridge National Laboratory and other institutions is designed to reduce uncertainties in future climate predictions as it bridges Earth systems with energy and economic models and large - scale human impact data.

As can be seen your graph, our climate models make a wide range of predictions (perhaps 0.5 - 5 degC, a 10-fold uncertainty) about how much «committed warming» will occur in the future under any stabilization scenario, so we don't seem to have a decent understanding of these processes.

Oppenheimer and his co-authors use a technique known as «structured expert judgment» to put an actual value on the uncertainty that scientists studying climate change have about a particular model's prediction of future events such as sea - level rise.

They use climate models to understand likely changes in the future and the uncertainty associated with those predictions, and explain their findings using such popular indicates as the Palmer drought index.

There, they treated each model prediction as if it were a datapoint, ignoring the large irreducible uncertainty around each datapoint.

As I recall, the researchers, and Myles Allen in particular, emphasised the fact that the bottom end of the range (ie the 2 in 2 - 11 degrees C) corresponded to previous predictions of 2 - 5 degrees C. I seem to remember that they said this gave strength to the prediction that there would be a warming of * at least * 2 degrees C, but that there was a greater degree of uncertainty at the top - end.

As I read Chapter 10.4.1 of AR4 WG1 it is addressing the uncertainty introduced by carbon cycle feed backs into those predictions.

Given that uncertainty, I'd far rather see scientists produce 50 - year limits, 100 - yr limits, 150 - yr limits, 250 - yr limits — those are the kinds of predictions that would be interesting, as they would give you an idea of how fast the approach to equilibrium might be.

AND HIS PREDICTION IS STILL JUST AS GOOD AS EVERYONE ELSE»S, given all the uncertainties you all are talking about.

Thus, as in any facet of life, we must make decisions today in a world of uncertainty, based on our best predictions of what will happen tomorrow; past a certain point, debating levels of certainty is a fruitless recipe for dithering and delay.

However, a prediction has uncertainties associated with it and so does measurement and this is as true for general relativity as it is for climate.

In terms of climate change model predictions, there is a high degree of uncertainty in both regions as to what comes next in an anthropogenic climate change scenario.

Treating it as a random variable adds to prediction uncertainty (Pat Frank's point, I think) without elucidating sources of model uncertainty (a cost, imho.)

Of course, this kind of uncertainty is why climate modelers don't presume to «predict» at all and get irritated when model scenarios are taken as predictions.

We must also communicate the growth in model uncertainty as model predictions of the future advance farther and farther from the present climate state.

For the near future the uncertainty in climate prediction justifies choosing polices that guide us towards net negative emissions as quickly as possible and the stabilization of atmospheric greenhouse gases at levels significantly lower than today.

Within the confines of our work with RASM and CESM, we will: (i) quantify the added value of using regional models for downscaling arctic simulations from global models, (ii) address the impacts of high resolution, improved process representations and coupling between model components on predictions at seasonal to decadal time scales, (iii) identify the most important processes essential for inclusion in future high resolution GC / ESMs, e.g. ACME, using CESM as a test bed, and (iv) better quantify the relationship between skill and uncertainty in the Arctic Region for high fidelity models.

«As a process committed to acceptance of deep uncertainties,» they say, «CIDA does not attempt to reduce uncertainties or make predictions, but rather determine which decision options are robust to a variety of plausible futures.»

As tamino has pointed out, calculating an area - weighted average global temperature can hardly be considered a «prediction» and as he and Greg Laden both pointed out, BEST has provided the uncertainty range for their data, and it is quite small (see it graphically here and hereAs tamino has pointed out, calculating an area - weighted average global temperature can hardly be considered a «prediction» and as he and Greg Laden both pointed out, BEST has provided the uncertainty range for their data, and it is quite small (see it graphically here and hereas he and Greg Laden both pointed out, BEST has provided the uncertainty range for their data, and it is quite small (see it graphically here and here).

The standard deviation of the ensemble is 0.38 million km2 which we provide as uncertainty estimate of the prediction.

In this context, climate assessments could benefit from exploration of alternative uncertainty frameworks, such as possibilistic prediction (e.g. Betz 2010).

Computational restrictions have thus far restricted the uncertainty space explored in model simulations, so uncertainty in climate predictions may well increase even as computational power increases.

Given the large uncertainties in the model input parameters as documented in Chapter 8 of the IPCC FAR 2007, the fall in the effective global temperature as published by the Hadley Centre and GSS for 2007/2008, which was not predicted by the models, why are there no definitive studies being made of other model predictions to verify their accuracy?

It should be emphasized that solving (the solvable) problems of climate prediction (or, just as important, making a realistic assessment of the ultimate limits to climate prediction set by the inherent uncertainties within the system) requires the deployment and long - term maintenance of massively expensive observational satellite and oceanographic programs.

The scientific uncertainties associated with climate prediction are the basis of most of the arguments about the significance of climate change (25), and as well are the basis of much of the polarized public opinion on the political aspects of the matter.

The representation of cloud processes in global atmospheric models has been recognized for decades as the source of much of the uncertainty surrounding predictions of climate variability.

The ensemble prediction from the PIOMAS model submitted by Zhang and Lindsay is still showing an open Northwest Passage (Figure 1a), as in the June Outlook, but there has been a notable drop in the uncertainty of the estimate with a low standard deviation in the model ensemble (Figure 1b).

The uncertainties are too big and this, in turn, makes him be very skeptic as regards the current climate models» prediction ability.

They carefully state that this is not meant as a firm prediction, «The exact timing of these events is not meaningful, given the great aggregation and many uncertainties in the model.

HadCM3 - AO and HadSM3 - AS were created in the Quantifying Uncertainty in Modelling Predictions (QUMP) project.

New decisions are fed back into the AI to allow the system to improve its predictions and keep up as judges and adjudicators resolve further uncertainties.