Sentences with phrase «as probability analysis»

Not exact matches

In author and seasoned commodity trader Carley Garner's quest to guide traders through the process of commodity market analysis, strategy development, and risk management, «Higher Probability Commodity Trading» discusses several alternative market concepts and unconventional views such as option selling tactics, hedging futures positions with options, and combining the practice of fundamental, technical, seasonal, and sentiment analysis to gauge market price changes.

Accordingly, since July 31, 2009 our valuation analysis has been conducted under a probability - weighted expected return method as prescribed by the AICPA Practice Aid.

On July 31, 2009, the Company commenced performing its valuation analysis under a probability - weighted expected return method as prescribed by the AICPA Practice Aid.

By using a statistical technique known as Bayesian analysis — which combines probability with archaeological information to improve precision for groups of radiocarbon dates — the study authors were able to produce a high - precision chronology model for early domestic horse use in Mongolia.

To get a sense for how this probability, or risk of such a storm, will change in the future, he performed the same analysis, this time embedding the hurricane model within six global climate models, and running each model from the years 2081 to 2100, under a future scenario in which the world's climate changes as a result of unmitigated growth of greenhouse gas emissions.

This field of study lies at the intersection of many mathematical fields, such as probability theory, analysis, combinatorics, and exactly solvable systems.

Each bi-annual report, at over 120 pages, covers key supply and demand developments as well as the overall supply and demand situation, reviews spot and long - term contract activity over the past three months, provides a near - term technical analysis along with detailed spot market indicators, projects prices under different market scenarios with associated probabilities, and examines key developments in the market through a topical essay.

Posterior probability distributions for the difference in DNA abundance between air swab negative controls and placenta (blue), saliva (red), vaginal swabs (orange), and other negative controls (green) as estimated by quantitative PCR analysis of 16S rRNA gene abundance for PSP (top) and MO BIO extractions (bottom).

Model based inferences from a separate analysis using adult snow leopards» data, grouped as male and female on program Mark indicated that the detection probability did not vary between sexes.

Therefore if more people with a personal history of diabetes (as is reported) or if the above analysis on the probability of family history of diabetes holds true, we really shouldn't be all the surprised that those people are more likely to subsequently die of diabetes.

Unfortunately, the analyses in this paper are not capable of identifying whether the differences in classifications are due to the type of student who attends each sector, or if there is something about charter schooling itself that reduces the probability that a student is newly classified as having a disability.

The instructional units are grouped by elementary, middle school, and high school level, and each grade cluster is categorized into topics such as: arithmetic, data analysis, fractions, geometry, and probability / patterns for elementary; pre-algebra, graphing / statistics, geometry, number theory, and interdisciplinary for middle school; and algebra, geometry, trigonometry, pre-calculus, Internet, science, and modeling for high school.

INCLUDES: 36 Student Activity Books (1 copy of each of the six titles per grade level, 32 - pages each) 4 Answer Cases 1 Teacher Guide FEATURES: Flexibility for task centers, independent or partner work, or one - on - one tutoring / remediation Clearly stated objective for each activity that allows you to differentiate Focus on foundational skills and concepts Engaging puzzle format for a fun challenge Immediate feedback for self - checking Titles: Grade 1: Number and Operations: Counting and Place Value Addition and Subtraction: Properties and Situations Addition and Subtraction: Strategies and Equations Addition and Subtraction: Beyond 20 Measurement and Data: Length, Time, and Analysis Geometry: Shapes and Attributes Grade 2: Addition and Subtraction: To 20 and Beyond Foundations of Multiplication: Equal Groups and Arrays Addition and Subtraction: Properties and Place Value Measurement and Data: Length, Time, and Analysis Measurement and Data: Time, Money, and Analysis Geometry: Shapes and Attributes Grade 3: Number and Operations: Multiply and Divide Multiply and Divide: Problem Solving Fractions: Fractions as Numbers Measurement and Data: Use and Interpret Data Geometric Measurement: Perimeter and Area Geometry: Shapes and Attributes Grade 4: Number and Operations: Whole Numbers Number and Operations Multi-Digit and Fractions Fractions: Equivalence and Ordering Fractions: Operations Measurement and Data: Convert and Solve Problems Geometry: Angles and Plane Figures Grade 5: Operations and Algebraic Thinking: Expressions and Patterns Number and Operations: Whole Numbers and Decimals Fractions: Add and Subtract Measurement and Data: Convert and Interpret Geometric Measurement: Volume Geometry: Graphing and 2 - D Figures Grade 6: Ratio and Proportions: Ratios and Problem Solving The Number System: Rational Numbers The Number System: Factors and Multiples Expressions and Equations: Write, Solve, and Analyze Geometry: Problem Solving Statistics and Probability: Variability and Displays

While every state and school district differs slightly, below you will find useful detail surrounding some of the Math concepts children will likely be covering in 3rd Grade Math such as: Addition and Subtraction Math Facts, Adding and Subtracting Larger Numbers, Multiplication and Division Math Facts, Skip Counting and Using a Hundreds Board, Money, Place Value, Telling Time, Measurement, Shapes and Solids, Lines and Angles, Symmetry, Fractions, Data Management and Analysis, Estimating, Area and Perimeter, Capacity and Weight, Decimals, Patterns, Circumference and Diameter, Long Multiplication, Percentages, Ordered Pairs on a Coordinate Grid, and Probability.

we have to take decision at the end of 6 months when risk reward ratio as per our analysis say it can not give more than 20 % annualized return from there onward and on the other hand some other cheap stock are waiting for us... Even if one stock which we just sold after earlier will become multi baggar does not mean law of probability say us to hold it..

Instead, think in terms of probabilities, always knowing that technical analysis only serves as an idea of what is likely; it will never be able to tell the future.

Building on Success As a rule, I allow for a 10 % probability that any analysis will fail, regardless of how well done.

Most scientific «facts» are accepted as such based on probability — that's the reason scientists perform, and report, statistical analysis of their data.

In other words, you are picking on «high amplitude and persistent ridging» as the red herring (short term events) to distract from the probability analysis (regarding the long term anomaly trend attributable to increased RF).

The addition of data from 1880 to 1910 to the analysis changed the trend (and expected probability of extremes in the current decade, using your unique definition of «trend») as compared to the analysis starting in 1911 by:

Because I advocated for a careful risk analysis of the probabilities associated with global warming models and projections he immediately casts me as someone who has no interest in conservation or alternative energy sources.

In the meanwhile, it may be useful to note that spectral analysis tries to account for mathematical artifacts, such as «spectral leakage `, probabilities that some frequencies are spurious, and the significance of the results.

The analysis seeks to capture the economic risks of low - probability, high - impact climate events as well as the changes most likely to occur in the future.

Perhaps you might humour me and offer your analysis of the probability that the 2010 land / ocean index, as determined by GISS, say, will be greater than the index for 2005.

That the «objective» Bayesian method using Jeffreys» prior will produce perfect probability matching is most easily seen as being due to the general fact that an analysis using the Jeffreys» prior is not affected by applying some monotonic transformation to the parameter (and then interpreting the results as transformed, of course).

David Stockwell did a statistical analysis of the probability of such a large step up in the OHC occurring as the jump depicts; it is impossible:

«We first state the main problem of the statistical analysis of stochastic dynamical systems as we understand it: based on a statistical analysis of these systems, to reveal their common features that are realized with probability one, i.e., for almost every realization of the relevant dynamical system.

This subject is complex, and the analyses even more complex, as it not only involves the direct science involved but the concept of variation, probabilities, and ranges (and types) of shifts over time.

Thus the alerts should not be interpreted as an analysis of total tree cover loss area but rather as an indication of an area that has a high probability of having experienced tree cover loss or disturbance over time.

Abstract Result The trial was closed before completion of accrual because Bayesian predictive probability analyses performed by an independent data monitoring committee indicated a probability of 0.003 that at the end of the study prophylaxis would prove superior to observation and a probability of 0.997 that there would be insufficient evidence at the end of the trial to choose either arm as superior.

you will recall, I've been waiting for a year now for Curry to explain her muddled and confused approach to probability, in particular her nonsensical «Italian Flag» analysis which she seems to be recasting as «fuzzy logic» (as an aside, I do agree that her logic is fuzzy, but perhaps not in the way she intended).

The probabilistic analyses of DAI reported in this section draw substantially on (subjective) Bayesian probabilities to describe key uncertainties in the climate system, such as climate sensitivity, the rate of oceanic heat uptake, current radiative forcing, and indirect aerosol forcing.

Our analysis suggests that by 2030, the INDCs as they stand may have used up the entire carbon budget for a good chance — 66 % probability — of keeping temperature rise below 2C this century.

Now, without going to the trouble of a Baysian probability analysis (which would just be putting numbers to educated guesswork), I think there is good reason to consider the Russian Heatwave sufficiently improbable on the assumption of no warming (relative to its probability on the assumption of GW) that it is worth independant recognition as evidence of the warming globe instead of just being burried under a mob of other statistics.

A fair analysis would take into account the prior probability of picking that extreme event (defined both by location and time unit) after it occurred — probably unquantifiable — but as far as I know these analysis are not done a priori.

In time series analysis, one series is treated as a single sample realization from a given data generating process, so conditional on a given DGP, that probability up there is completely meaningless.

My partner Patric deserves special recognition for handling the bulk of homestead related activities as I park myself in front of the computer each evening to delve into the specifics of Z scores, standard deviation, degrees of freedom, probability and regression analysis.

As outlined in Statistical Policy Working Paper 22, an expert disclosure analysis would also consider the probability that an individual who is the target of an attempt at re-identification is represented on both Start Printed Page 82710files, the probability that the matching variables are recorded identically on the two types of records, the probability that the target individual is unique in the population for the matching variables, and the degree of confidence that a match would correctly identify a unique person.

As Swapan Khanna, co-founder of I - Save, insurance research and analysis firm, says, «All early claims or claims that occur within two years of taking a policy are bound to be investigated since the probability of deliberate fraud in such cases is higher.

Changes in rates of child diagnoses from baseline to 3 months as a function of mother's remission and subsequently mother's level of response were analyzed using a repeated measures analysis with binary response data, using generalized estimating equation (GEE) methods.27 A linear probability model with an identity link function (rather than a logit - link function) was used to model interactions on the additive scale28 and to model a dose - response function using rates (rather than odds) as the outcome measure because we considered risk differences to be a more relevant measure than odds ratios in our study.

Cost per QALY for FLNP, based on the complete case analysis, was estimated at # 34 913 over 5 years and # 18 954 over 10 years duration, with the probability that FLNP can be regarded as cost - effective as 36 % against the # 20 000 threshold over 5 years, and 51 % over 10; and 47 % against the # 30 000 threshold over 5 years, and 57 % over 10 (table 7).

ROC and conditional probability analyses revealed that the CBCL performed reasonably well as a screening tool for comorbidity in ADHD children in the primary care setting.