The yen has been in free - fall for the past two weeks
as risk sentiment returned to the financial markets.
Japan's Nikkei share average raced to a seven - week high on Wednesday
as risk sentiment recovered after Wall Street rose overnight on earnings hopes, while a weaker yen lifted shares across the board.
Japan's Nikkei share average raced to a seven - week high on Wednesday morning
as risk sentiment recovered after Wall Street rose overnight on earnings hopes, lifting shares across the board.
Japan's Nikkei share average raced to a seven - week high on Wednesday
as risk sentiment recovered.
Not exact matches
Comments: «In 2013, it will likely be the change in valuation that drives most of the performance of stocks, and the
sentiment shift and willingness to take on
risk reflected in that movement will be meaningful for bonds
as well.
European markets dropped to two week lows on Thursday
as mounting political uncertainty in the U.S. hits
risk sentiment.
Michael Toth, a data scientist at fintech company Orchard, decided to do a
sentiment analysis of the letters, comparing the number of negative words such
as «loss,» «difficult,» «bad,» and «
risk» with the number of positive words, such
as «gains,» «top,» «excellent,» and «advantage.»
Analysts also pointed to a sudden fall in Japanese equities from multi-decade peaks on dampening
risk sentiment in Asian trade, a mood that continued into London trading hours with European stocks also falling,
as hurting investor
sentiment.
He rates the stock «underperform» — Wall Street speak for sell —
as he believes it is overvalued even at current depressed prices, citing the
risk that investors»
sentiment on the company will sour further if it is accused of fraud or «other impropriety» surfaces.
«
Risk sentiment started improving
as the world economy recovered from the crisis and volatility came down notably across asset classes,» the Citi analysts wrote.
In author and seasoned commodity trader Carley Garner's quest to guide traders through the process of commodity market analysis, strategy development, and
risk management, «Higher Probability Commodity Trading» discusses several alternative market concepts and unconventional views such
as option selling tactics, hedging futures positions with options, and combining the practice of fundamental, technical, seasonal, and
sentiment analysis to gauge market price changes.
At the same time, with
risks to the global economy and markets looming (think Brexit, global deflation fears, China devaluation, etc...),
risk - off
sentiment could also reassert itself
as a driver of dollar strength.
In their October 2009 paper entitled «
Risk Sentiment Index (RSI) and Market Anomalies», Guy Kaplanski and Haim Levy introduce the Risk Sentiment Index (RSI) as a measure of the residual risk contained in VIX after accounting for the statistical and economic variables most predictive of future stock market volatility (such as previous month actual volatility and V
Risk Sentiment Index (RSI) and Market Anomalies», Guy Kaplanski and Haim Levy introduce the
Risk Sentiment Index (RSI) as a measure of the residual risk contained in VIX after accounting for the statistical and economic variables most predictive of future stock market volatility (such as previous month actual volatility and V
Risk Sentiment Index (RSI)
as a measure of the residual
risk contained in VIX after accounting for the statistical and economic variables most predictive of future stock market volatility (such as previous month actual volatility and V
risk contained in VIX after accounting for the statistical and economic variables most predictive of future stock market volatility (such
as previous month actual volatility and VIX).
Sentiment in the options market,
as indicated by 1 - month
risk reversals (a measure derived from the relative prices of put and call options in the Australian dollar), has also become more bullish since mid 2004.
In recognizing the catalysts behind the public's persistence to save and reluctance to spend, additional analysis by policymakers should focus on the efficacy of further rate cuts on spending and investment,
as well
as potential «roundabout» benefits of a more normal rates regime to affirm support toward the public's saving objectives, with the end goal of boosting public's
risk sentiment and perceptions of future economic stability.
As usual, I don't place too much emphasis on this sort of forecast, but to the extent that I make any comments at all about the outlook for 2006, the bottom line is this: 1) we can't rule out modest potential for stock appreciation, which would require the maintenance or expansion of already high price / peak earnings multiples; 2) we also should recognize an uncomfortably large potential for market losses, particularly given that the current bull market has now outlived the median and average bull, yet at higher valuations than most bulls have achieved, a flat yield curve with rising interest rate pressures, an extended period of internal divergence as measured by breadth and other market action, and complacency at best and excessive bullishness at worst, as measured by various sentiment indicators; 3) there is a moderate but still not compelling risk of an oncoming recession, which would become more of a factor if we observe a substantial widening of credit spreads and weakness in the ISM Purchasing Managers Index in the months ahead, and; 4) there remains substantial potential for U.S. dollar weakness coupled with «unexpectedly» persistent inflation pressures, particularly if we do observe economic weaknes
As usual, I don't place too much emphasis on this sort of forecast, but to the extent that I make any comments at all about the outlook for 2006, the bottom line is this: 1) we can't rule out modest potential for stock appreciation, which would require the maintenance or expansion of already high price / peak earnings multiples; 2) we also should recognize an uncomfortably large potential for market losses, particularly given that the current bull market has now outlived the median and average bull, yet at higher valuations than most bulls have achieved, a flat yield curve with rising interest rate pressures, an extended period of internal divergence
as measured by breadth and other market action, and complacency at best and excessive bullishness at worst, as measured by various sentiment indicators; 3) there is a moderate but still not compelling risk of an oncoming recession, which would become more of a factor if we observe a substantial widening of credit spreads and weakness in the ISM Purchasing Managers Index in the months ahead, and; 4) there remains substantial potential for U.S. dollar weakness coupled with «unexpectedly» persistent inflation pressures, particularly if we do observe economic weaknes
as measured by breadth and other market action, and complacency at best and excessive bullishness at worst,
as measured by various sentiment indicators; 3) there is a moderate but still not compelling risk of an oncoming recession, which would become more of a factor if we observe a substantial widening of credit spreads and weakness in the ISM Purchasing Managers Index in the months ahead, and; 4) there remains substantial potential for U.S. dollar weakness coupled with «unexpectedly» persistent inflation pressures, particularly if we do observe economic weaknes
as measured by various
sentiment indicators; 3) there is a moderate but still not compelling
risk of an oncoming recession, which would become more of a factor if we observe a substantial widening of credit spreads and weakness in the ISM Purchasing Managers Index in the months ahead, and; 4) there remains substantial potential for U.S. dollar weakness coupled with «unexpectedly» persistent inflation pressures, particularly if we do observe economic weakness.
Still,
as the client questions above indicate, my read of
sentiment is that, for now, more investors are looking to buy the dip rather than to lower
risk.
Following the November 2016 election in the U.S., we saw a surge in
risk sentiment, where assets with perceived credit
risk gained and assets thought to be
risk - free sold off,
as investors rotated their portfolios (PC1).
As seen in prior cycles, changes in short - term interest rates alone had yielded little effect on financial conditions, as buoyant risk sentiment strengthened equities, corporate bonds, as well as various forms of «esoteric» investment
As seen in prior cycles, changes in short - term interest rates alone had yielded little effect on financial conditions,
as buoyant risk sentiment strengthened equities, corporate bonds, as well as various forms of «esoteric» investment
as buoyant
risk sentiment strengthened equities, corporate bonds,
as well as various forms of «esoteric» investment
as well
as various forms of «esoteric» investment
as various forms of «esoteric» investments.
Therefore, subdued long - term interest rates is both a catalyst for better
risk sentiment as well
as a consequence of central bank balance sheet expansion (namely ECB QE), which is in itself bullish
risk.
Rates subsequently bear steepened
as long - end led the weakness, but renewed decline in
risk sentiment managed to create a soft ceiling for bond yields, and the rates market rallied into the close.
We see
risk of a U.K. recession and European slowdown,
as Brexit uncertainties weigh on
sentiment.
Emerging market currencies also dropped on Friday
as investors
sentiment cooled around
risk.
But it's essential to contain ones exuberance
as regional
risk can easily entangle in higher US yields, but so far the push in treasury yields has not been intense enough to cause a substantial adverse shift in
risk sentiment, but caution prevails
as the move higher in US Bond yields could be far from over.
On a side note, given Australia's vital role in the APAC supply chain, it worth keeping an eye on the escalation of regional geopolitical
risk as this could dampen
sentiment quickly.
Improved
risk sentiment failed to deter the yen on Thursday,
as its rally against the dollar deepened in the wake of stronger than expected U.S. inflation...
Global equity markets are likely to remain firmly gripped by geopolitical
risk,
as escalating tensions over the conflict in Syria weigh heavily on
sentiment.
I hold to the best predictor of actions in the present being the relevant past and therefore they would take the
risk of being perceived
as condescending and could have a dialogue that results in them being told to «go fuck themselves» or an expression that carries similar
sentiment.
The
risk was that he chose Darren E. Sherkat, a sociologist at Southern Illinois University whom Regnerus would later describe (without fear of contradiction)
as someone «who has long harbored negative
sentiment about me.»
That's a
sentiment echoed by Hassan Ali, a maths and astrophysics graduate who now works
as a senior
risk - control analyst for investment bank UBS.
Still,
as the client questions above indicate, my read of
sentiment is that, for now, more investors are looking to buy the dip rather than to lower
risk.
Markets are experiencing an intense case of
risk off
sentiment,
as investors flee from riskier assets in pursuit of safe havens.
Headline
risk: Municipal bonds are heavily a retail product and
as a result retail
sentiment can play a big role in market performance.
Well, it looks like the Aussie's price action this week was dictated mostly by
risk sentiment since the Aussie was a loser, even though gold closed higher, thanks to the weaker U.S. dollar,
as well
as safe - haven demand for gold.
As has been the case in the past few weeks, the Aussie took directional cues from gold and
risk sentiment, which makes for some rather weird and messy price action, especially on Monday when
As you can also see below, the Swissy was more vulnerable to
risk sentiment since the euro traded roughly sideways on Thursday but the safe - haven Swissy was feeling some bearish pressure, very likely because of
As has been the case in the past few weeks, the Aussie took directional cues from gold and
risk sentiment, which makes for some rather weird and messy price action, especially on Monday when gold prices dropped because of the Greenback's overall strength, which is bearish for the Aussie.
As you can also see below, the Swissy was more vulnerable to
risk sentiment since the euro traded roughly sideways on Thursday but the safe - haven Swissy was feeling some bearish pressure, very likely because of the returning
risk - on vibes at the time.
As such, the Kiwi broadly rose on Monday when
risk - taking was the name of the game and then dipped on Tuesday when
risk sentiment soured ahead of the latest dairy auction.
We haven't seen a backdrop like this in the past several years, so it could support investor
sentiment and
risk - taking
as we enter the new year.
Demand for Higher
Risk Helping Equity Prices U.S. equity markets are trading better at the mid-session, buoyed by demand for higher risk, oversold conditions, a fresh influx of cash and news that Obama may propose tax breaks for businesses.Investors dumped stocks late last week as sentiment shifted toward less risky ass
Risk Helping Equity Prices U.S. equity markets are trading better at the mid-session, buoyed by demand for higher
risk, oversold conditions, a fresh influx of cash and news that Obama may propose tax breaks for businesses.Investors dumped stocks late last week as sentiment shifted toward less risky ass
risk, oversold conditions, a fresh influx of cash and news that Obama may propose tax breaks for businesses.Investors dumped stocks late last week
as sentiment shifted toward less risky assets.
As of last week, the Market Climate in stocks was characterized by a combination of rich valuations, unfavorable market action, continued negative economic pressures on forward - looking indicators, and additional indicators (
sentiment, credit spreads, etc) associated with a poor average return /
risk profile in stocks.
But the greater the multiple & blind faith it enjoys, the more it
risks being felled, if / when an abrupt change in
sentiment finally hits...
as we saw with Aryzta.
As I've mentioned before, even if you think a low P / E is deserved (which I don't, here), this low valuation offers an asymmetric risk / reward scenario as news develops, unexpected events occur, and sentiment changes.
As I've mentioned before, even if you think a low P / E is deserved (which I don't, here), this low valuation offers an asymmetric
risk / reward scenario
as news develops, unexpected events occur, and sentiment changes.
as news develops, unexpected events occur, and
sentiment changes...
In terms of more well - known / larger companies, this means you need to be ready to take advantage of sudden (but apparently temporary) setbacks in results, news - flow &
sentiment — i.e. GARP investing, with all the
risks & opportunities that entails (
as you valiantly strive to distinguish temporary from permanent).
The looming
sentiment of rising rates and inflation has investors focused on reinvestment
risk; however, a supply imbalance systemic of voters» hindrance for governments to take on additional debt has municipals
as a whole outperforming their peers.
While the
risk of default put downward pressure to the Chinese corporates in the beginning of year, the
sentiment improved
as the government strives to roll out financial reforms and promote growth.
As such,
risk aversion still appears to be the more dominant
sentiment in Europe
This alert serves
as a precursor to Upside Momentum or Downside
Risk alerts,
as the actual direction of the
sentiment is not quantified.
Lastly, there is the
risk of reputational damage
as customer
sentiment shifts towards climate change awareness or investors divert funds from fossil fuels.