And your reservations about treating ENSO
as stochastic processes are misplaced.
There is no basic randomness here, except as far as it arises from the general indeterminacy of the physical world (known
as stochastic processes).
In 2012, Vedral, Gu and others proved a similar result for another class of problems known
as stochastic processes.
Not exact matches
The choice between these possible futures is made, in a condition of chemical instability, by
stochastic (nondeterministic)
processes, such
as random internal fluctuations of the system.
But you see, the Met office never predicted a «barbecue summer», firstly because
as scientists, the term «barbecue summer» is hardly scientific, but also because they predicted something along the lines of «there's a 60 % chance the summer will be warmer than average», which the media duly turned into «THEREZ GON NA B A BARBEE SUMA LOLZORZ!!!! 111» As someone on the internet said about Simon Jenkins recently, and could now so easily say about Hannan, he doesn't understand what a stochastic process i
as scientists, the term «barbecue summer» is hardly scientific, but also because they predicted something along the lines of «there's a 60 % chance the summer will be warmer than average», which the media duly turned into «THEREZ GON NA B A BARBEE SUMA LOLZORZ!!!! 111»
As someone on the internet said about Simon Jenkins recently, and could now so easily say about Hannan, he doesn't understand what a stochastic process i
As someone on the internet said about Simon Jenkins recently, and could now so easily say about Hannan, he doesn't understand what a
stochastic process is.
As the number of entrants increases and the number of prizes doesn't, the
process becomes less deterministic — less merit - based — and more
stochastic.
Changes in gene expression
as a response to death, and during subsequent post-mortem ischemia, might be expected to reflect
stochastic variation resulting from the enzymatic
processes underlying mRNA degradation.
Viewing the work of Shaun O'Dell at Susan Inglett Gallery last December 20th made me ponder on what the artist refers to
as «a purely
stochastic process».
The question about uncertainty is a question about information about
processes, whether understood, random variations (known
as «noise» or
stochastic processes), or systematic model shortcomings (biases).
MM2005 model a stationary
stochastic process but the MBH98 algorithm somehow detects what you describe
as a non-stationary forcing attributed to CO2.
«From a stationary
stochastic process the MBH98 algorithm detects a non-stationary signal: just how does it do that and still get described
as robust?»
The next El Niño event (whenever it comes — that is a
stochastic process) is likely to produce a new global mean temperature record (
as happened in 2010).
As Richard Alley has shown in a couple of papers, the ice core data of DO events are entirely consistent with
stochastic resonance — which is not chaos but arises from a simple threshold
process («flicking of a switch») in the presence of noise.
The weather is what is particular, whereas the climate itself is a statistical description of what particulars we can expect to find
as the result of the
stochastic process by which a climate system evolves.
The model parameters are fit by treating each of the six series
as a
stochastic realization of the
stochastic measurement
process.
Rather it warns us to change our perception of natural
processes as resembling these simple idealized mathematical
processes and to move towards a new type of
stochastic dynamics.
Koutsoyiannis (2011) showed that an ensemble of climate model projections is fully contained WITHIN the uncertainty envelope of traditional
stochastic methods using historical data, including the Hurst phenomena... the Hurst phenomena (1951) describes the large and long excursions of natural events above and below their mean,
as opposed to random
processes which do not exhibit such behavior.
In fact, it's my experience modeling
stochastic processes and noise (which are inherently chaotic systems that can not be directly modeled except
as probability functions) that informs this next statement: climate models can, and do, model cloud formation.
Cross-spectral coherence has little to do with when extreme values are achieved in a wide - band
stochastic process such
as ENSO.
Indeed, its time series is well characterized
as a predominantly
stochastic process with an e-folding time scale of 10 — 14 days (Feldstein 2000; Wunsch 1999; Deser et al. 2010).
On the other hand, along with these,
stochastic nonstationary phenomena such
as mixing, localization, and clustering in the phase and the physical spaces can occur in particular realizations of random
processes and fields.
Whereas the corresponding precipitation variability can be described
as a white noise
stochastic process, power spectra of vertically integrated soil water exhibit significant redness on timescales of years to decades, since the predictability of soil water storage arises mostly from the integration of precipitation variability.
In particular, What if macroscopic evolution is not just another «a cultural consensus» imposed by like minded atheists / materialists who by definition preclude open science of testing it against the null hypothesis of known
stochastic and chemical
processes (
as distinct from mutations causing microevolution)?
David L Hagan: What if macroscopic evolution is not just another «a cultural consensus» imposed by like minded atheists / materialists who by definition preclude open science of testing it against the null hypothesis of known
stochastic and chemical
processes (
as distinct from mutations causing microevolution)?
The ability of dynamic models to capture various interactions of complex systems, their potential to adapt and evolve
as the real system changes and / or the level of the modelers» understanding of the real system improves, their ability to model coupled
processes of different temporal and spatial resolutions and scales, and their flexibility to incorporate and / or couple to models based on other approaches (such
as agent - based modeling,
stochastic modeling, etc.) render them
as a versatile and efficient tool to model coupled Earth — Human Systems [190,191,192,193].
«The false assumption is that the period 1880 — 1935 is purely governed by
stochastic processes, whereas in reality there
as already a change in climate forcing in that period (from solar, volcanic and GHG).»
A
stochastic process where everything gets flung and some of the spaghetti sticks to the wall
as valuable?