The team plans to investigate how to properly quantify and understand the compounded effects of both long - lived greenhouse gases, like carbon dioxide and methane, and short - lived pollutants, such
as tropospheric ozone, black carbon, and sulfur dioxide.
We see ocean energy content increase or decrease
as tropospheric energy content decreases or increases.
Despite potentially large absolute errors in these forcings, their impact on our analysis is likely to be small,
as the tropospheric aerosol forcing in the datasets analyzed changed very little over 1985 — 96 (Myhre et al. 2001).»
Sources such
as the Tropospheric Emission Spectrometer (TES), Ozone Monitoring Instrument (OMI), and Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) instruments on the Aura satellite, the Cloud - Aerosol Lidar and Infrared Pathfinder Satellite Observations (CALIPSO), and the ground - based Aerosol Robotic Network (Aeronet) will be used, requiring the input of both the modeling and observational communities.
And
as tropospheric aerosols have an average lifetime of only 4 days before raining out, the influence must be at and near the sources... Thus what is the real influence of aerosols?
Not exact matches
As well as confirming the tropospheric hotspot, the researchers also found a 10 % increase in winds over the Southern Ocea
As well
as confirming the tropospheric hotspot, the researchers also found a 10 % increase in winds over the Southern Ocea
as confirming the
tropospheric hotspot, the researchers also found a 10 % increase in winds over the Southern Ocean.
Tropospheric chemist Louisa Emmons at the National Center for Atmospheric Research explains that ozone emanates from fertilizers and pollutants
as well
as natural sources.
As a little example Rapp quotes him saying the context of satellite
tropospheric temps: «if the influence of the prominent El - Nino of 1998 were ignored, the globally averaged temperature of the atmosphere would display a cooling trend».
Christy was in fact included; the ensuing period must have been uncomfortable for him,
as it included a major correction to his UAH troposhere temperature record, and the ascendant credibility of the competing
tropospheric analysis from RSS.
Despite the extreme distorting effect of their filter, McLean et al consistently refer to the correlations
as between SOI and
tropospheric temperature.
In addition, both internal variability and aerosol forcing are likely to affect tropical storms in large part though changes in ocean temperature gradients (thereby changing ITCZ position and vertical shear), while greenhouse gases likely exert their influence by more uniformly changing ocean and
tropospheric temperatures, so the physics of the problem may suggest this decomposition
as more natural
as well.
Fred Singer is now spreading a claim that the tropical
tropospheric hot spot was presented
as a human fingerprint in IPCC SAR:
The recent tropical LT anomalies have been way below the surface temperature
as far
as I can tell, and thus ought to bring down the tropical
tropospheric temperature trend relative to the surface.
For what it's worth, I haven't specifically checked for the effect of non-linearities on the underlying trend (
as estimated based on the model mean) on the liberality of the test on the
tropospheric trend presented in the test reported in Table III in Santer et al..
It might sound convincing to argue that steadily declining stratospheric temps coordinated with steadily rising
tropospheric temps are a sure sign of significant CO2 involvement, but unfortunately for you the temperature of the troposphere has not steadily risen
as expected — in fact, the negative correlation you want to see occurred only during a relatively brief 20 year period, from ca. 1979 - ca.
And
as for IPCC changing conclusions this has happened many times — Lindzen used to point to statements about upper
tropospheric water vapour for instance that became less confident from the 1990, 1995 and 2001 reports, similarly uncertainty in aerosol indirect effects has clearly grown over time.]
Do they predict yearly seasons
as the Earth's tilt changes, or
tropospheric warming but stratospheric cooling with increasing GHG?)
Lower
Tropospheric is
as good
as any for showing trends,
as it removes any UHI effect.
I will bet Gavin Schmidt or any other author on this website $ 200 on LongBets.org that Michael Crichton's projections for temperature increases are more accurate than the IPCC, assuming that the temperature being projected is average lower
tropospheric temperature
as measured by satellites.
- but yes, by IPWP I meant the Indo - Pacific Warm Pool and sorry if the term seems obscure but it is well known by those studying ocean to atmosphere interactions and
as such, is key to really understanding El Niño activity and the spikes in
tropospheric heat El Niños can bring.
As chair of the UNEP / WMO Integrated Assessment of Black Carbon and
Tropospheric Ozone, I would like to point out that our report in fact draws many very similar conclusions about the importance of CO2 to those made by scientists worried that CO2's primary is under - appreciated.
In some cases, reviewers and / or editors supportive of mainstream views totally block important papers from being published; McKitrick, McIntyre and Herman had to completely rewrite their recent paper — showing that high tropical
tropospheric temperature trends for the last three decades produced by climate models are inconsistent with observations —
as a study of applying statistical methods developed in econometrics, and submit it to a journal with a more open - minded editor, in order to get it published at all.
The difference of adding 1998 is greater here than with the surface data, because the response of
tropospheric temperature to ENSO is twice
as large
as that of surface temperatures to ENSO (in other words, the 1998 anomaly is much larger in the satellite data).
That doens» t affect the equilibrium increase in the upward flux at TRPP in response, though it may change how much of that is absorbed by the stratosphere (perhaps a reduction due to shielding of water vapor and CO2 wings in the stratosphere by increased
tropospheric water vapor (
as it would by an increase in clouds, particularly higher clouds)-- PS feedbacks also change the baseline spectral flux in the vicinity of the CO2 band.
@zebra I think the extreme weather factor is all about the increasing lower -
tropospheric water vapor content, which plays out in storms
as a latent heat issue.
At the point where there is so much H2O vapor in the atmosphere that there is very little solar heating of the surface (very very far from happenning), there will also tend to be almost no net LW cooling at the surface, so a
tropospheric - type lapse rate could still tend to extend down to the surface (
as long
as the net LW cooling is smaller than the SW heating, there will be some non-radiative flux from the surface for equilibrium conditions).
It will be,
as in the case with direct solar heating, larger than the final equibrium cooling, but it could still be a cooling even after surface +
tropospheric warming, though both the initial and final cooling will be smaller than in the case with direct solar heating.
There is good evidence that the answer to both these question is no: (The insensitivy of the results to methodology of selecting rural stations, the Parker et al windy days study, and the fact that data from satellite skin surface measurements, from sea surface temperatures, deep ocean temps
as we
as tropospheric temps are all in good agreement).
As I said before, other warming factors are also more prevelant in the NH (specifically
tropospheric O3 and black carbon — including its effect on snow albedo).
To be sure, some of these effects (such
as the impact of irrigation on surface water vapour, or land use changes on evapotranspiration) are not easily dealt with in terms of the
tropospheric radiative forcing — a point that was well made in the National Academies report on radiative forcing (on which Dr. Pielke was an author).
First, for changing just CO2 forcing (or CH4, etc, or for a non-GHE forcing, such
as a change in incident solar radiation, volcanic aerosols, etc.), there will be other GHE radiative «forcings» (feedbacks, though in the context of measuring their radiative effect, they can be described
as having radiative forcings of x W / m2 per change in surface T), such
as water vapor feedback, LW cloud feedback, and also, because GHE depends on the vertical temperature distribution, the lapse rate feedback (this generally refers to the
tropospheric lapse rate, though changes in the position of the tropopause and changes in the stratospheric temperature could also be considered lapse - rate feedbacks for forcing at TOA; forcing at the tropopause with stratospheric adjustment takes some of that into account; sensitivity to forcing at the tropopause with stratospheric adjustment will generally be different from sensitivity to forcing without stratospheric adjustment and both will generally be different from forcing at TOA before stratospheric adjustment; forcing at TOA after stratospehric adjustment is identical to forcing at the tropopause after stratospheric adjustment).
But if the optical thickness in that band is sufficiently smaller than in another band (depending on wavelengths), adding some absorption to the optically - thinner band would tend to result in warming of the colder layers (
as there would be less temperature variation over height in radiative equilbrium for that band, given the same surface (+
tropospheric) temperatures.
Some of these forcings are well known and understood (such
as the well - mixed greenhouse gases, or recent volcanic effects), while others have an uncertain magnitude (solar), and / or uncertain distributions in space and time (aerosols,
tropospheric ozone etc.), or uncertain physics (land use change, aerosol indirect effects etc.).
Recently I have been looking at the climate models collected in the CMIP3 archive which have been analysed and assessed in IPCC and it is very interesting to see how the forced changes — i.e. the changes driven the external factors such
as greenhouse gases,
tropospheric aerosols, solar forcing and stratospheric volcanic aerosols drive the forced response in the models (which you can see by averaging out several simulations of the same model with the same forcing)-- differ from the internal variability, such
as associated with variations of the North Atlantic and the ENSO etc, which you can see by looking at individual realisations of a particular model and how it differs from the ensemble mean.
Barely more surprising is that all of the
tropospheric satellite datasets and radiosonde data also have 2016
as the warmest year.
Reducing emissions of the short - lived climate forcers black carbon and
tropospheric ozone — soot and smog — has been identified by scientists
as the most effective strategy to slow Arctic warming and melting in the near term, forestalling potentially irreversible tipping points such
as the melting, while the world works to reduce emissions of GHGs.
As such, it certainly includes winds over the ocean surface, and over Greenland, and hence it is
tropospheric winds that account for the snowfall in Greenland.
That could explain the resolute failure of real world observations to match model expectations and the failure to appear of the anticipated
tropospheric «hot spot» that was expected
as a marker for AGW.
This assessment report looks into all aspects of anthropogenic emissions of black carbon and
tropospheric ozone precursors, such
as methane.
Of course,
as Pielke Sr. has correctly pointed out,
tropospheric energy
as measured by moist ethalpy is not flat over the past 15 years.
The collapse of the Sc clouds occurs because,
as the free -
tropospheric longwave opacity increases with increased CO2 and water vapor concentrations, the turbulent mixing that is driven by cloud - top radiative cooling weakens, and therefore is unable to maintain the Sc layer.
As it is, I don't care much for the overly large focus on near - surface tropospheric temperatures, as most of our weather and climate is going to be based on ocean dynamics and ocean heat conten
As it is, I don't care much for the overly large focus on near - surface
tropospheric temperatures,
as most of our weather and climate is going to be based on ocean dynamics and ocean heat conten
as most of our weather and climate is going to be based on ocean dynamics and ocean heat content.
Nature of Cumulus Convection The AGW theory and the many AGW global model simulations assume that
tropospheric relative humidity (RH) will remain quasi-constant
as CO2 induced blockage of infrared (IR) radiation brings about temperature rises.
Tropospheric CH4 signals
as observed by NDACC FTIR at globally distributed sites and comparison to GAW surface in - situ measurements.
While a global temperature metric for the near - surface
tropospheric temperatures is awkward in that it does not account for changes in local climates, it is useful from the most important and broad perspective...
as one more metric to indicate total energy flow in and out of the Earth system.
Ocean surface cooling, in the North Atlantic
as well
as the Southern Ocean, increases
tropospheric horizontal temperature gradients, eddy kinetic energy and baroclinicity, which drive more powerful storms.
Indeed that poleward shift was supposed to be accompanied by a
tropospheric hot spot
as the enhanced upward energy flux was then constrained by extra GHGs so that the «surplus» energy was retained in the troposphere and thereby denied to the stratosphere which then cooled
as per observations and despite the «normal» warming of the stratosphere that would otherwise have been expected from the highly active sun at the time.
What do you feel about the arbitrary post hoc adjustment of
tropospheric temperature (which includes some stratospheric contamination) to match «Hansen's temperature data» and then using that
as a comparator, is that good practise (sic.)?
It is demonstrated that even with historical SSTs
as a boundary condition, most atmospheric models exhibit excessive tropical upper
tropospheric warming relative to the lower - middle troposphere
as compared with satellite - borne microwave sounding unit measurements.
Certainly
tropospheric sensible heat will fluctuate on the shorter term based on ENSO, PDO, and AMO, rising and falling with these fluctuations, but each major El Niño will tend to see higher highs, with La Niña not seeing quite
as low of lows.