For the moment, I don't see tree rings
as valid proxies — for temperature OR precipitation.
In this context, it was extremely dissappointing for von Storch to simply put the bristlecones in the «further research» basket, as if this crucial issue shouldn't have been addressed before MBH and others were happy to claim
them as a valid proxy.
Not exact matches
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If we use sub-NCAV
as a
proxy for sub-cash (which may or may not be
valid), James Montier's Graham» s net - nets: outdated or outstanding?
Counting published papers can't be used
as a
proxy for scientific opinion if you don't know if there's a
valid connection.
I also note that I have had a shot at the hockey stick at the basic level of whether tree rings are even
valid as a
proxy for long term temperature reconstruction (Loehle, C. 2004.
Not very long ago Phil Jones used dendrological data
as a temperature -
proxy and it correlated with temperatures quite well up until 1960, but then it unpredictably and unexpectedly diverged from the instrumental record disproving the assumption that they can be used a
valid paleo - thermometers
as was previously thought.
Also needs to be pointed out that ice core d18O temperature reconstructions are
valid as a global
proxy.
This
proxy method might be regarded by some
as valid on the grounds that it is comparing apples with apples, but there's still a lot of difference been a McIntosh and a Delicious.
In so doing he discovered that the hockey stick is not a global pattern, it is driven by a flawed group of US
proxies that experts do not consider
valid as climate indicators.
A high correlation with the 60 + year long instrumental temperature record at Faraday station, further up the Antartic peninsula, was used
as evidence that the Gomez d18O ice core
proxy reconstruction was a
valid representation of temperatures in the vincinity of the peninsula.
Leif: yes one can extend the solar cycles backwards BUT
as you try to get data to compare it to you are stuck with data taken at long intervals (like very 100 yrs), dating errors, measurement problems, sedimentation discontinuities (the lake dries out or sediment slumps or is dug by an animal) and
proxies of unknown validity (like tree rings which I do not believe are
valid).
Rather, the only
valid conclusion that one can draw from the spike is that it indicates that we are likely to find spikes
as we increase
proxy resolution.
Otherwise it is just
as valid to claim that the increasing trend in UK marriages (say) between 1900 and 1970 (again, for example) can be calibrated against some other set of data and hence represents a
valid temperature
proxy.
Then the assumption of quasi-linearity is not true, and considering the growth rate
as a
proxy for temperature is not
valid, and the
proxy shouldn't be used.
Before the
proxy reconstruction is accepted
as valid, the relationship between the reconstruction and the instrumental measurements during the validation period is examined to test the accuracy of the reconstruction.