The explanation is actually simple: there is no such thing
as volcanic cooling of the troposphere.
This cooling was from the same root cause
as volcanic cooling, namely aerosols (mostly sulfate aerosols) in the atmosphere.
We can plainly see the highs during the 1998 and 2010 el Ninos, and the lows during the 2008 la Nina as well
as the volcanic coolings in the early 1980s and early 1990s.
Not exact matches
Igneous rocks are formed when molten rock (magma)
cools and solidifies, with or without crystallization, either below the surface
as intrusive (plutonic) rocks or on the surface
as extrusive (
volcanic) rocks.
After large
volcanic eruptions that pump sulphur dioxide into the atmosphere, such
as that of mount Pinatubo in the Philippines in 1991, the planet
cools for a year or two.
Geometric columns occur in many types of
volcanic rocks and form
as the rock
cools and contracts, resulting in a regular array of polygonal prisms or columns.
But
as a planet begins to
cool, rock weathering slows and the amount of carbon dioxide gradually builds from its
volcanic sources, which causes rising temperatures.
Since the 1990s, scientists have been discussing using aircraft to inject aerosols, such
as sulfates, into the atmosphere
as a form of geoengineering to mimic
volcanic eruptions that sometimes
cool the planet by casting shades of particulate matter.
Interestingly, some scientists argue that without the
cooling effect of major
volcanic eruptions such
as El Chichn and Mount Pinatubo, global warming effects caused by human activities would have been far more substantial.
The height of exploration may have occurred at the peak of
cooling: Starting in the late 16th century, a series of
volcanic eruptions likely chilled the Northern Hemisphere by
as much
as 1.8 degrees Celsius below the long - term average, White says.
As they continue their research, the scientists hope to find ways to better track
volcanic - induced
cooling and environmental pollution, though some researchers are quite skeptical about this technique:
So the report notes that the current «pause» in new global average temperature records since 1998 — a year that saw the second strongest El Nino on record and shattered warming records — does not reflect the long - term trend and may be explained by the oceans absorbing the majority of the extra heat trapped by greenhouse gases
as well
as the
cooling contributions of
volcanic eruptions.
As discussed elsewhere on this site, modeling studies indicate that the modest
cooling of hemispheric or global mean temperatures during the 15th - 19th centuries (relative to the warmer temperatures of the 11th - 14th centuries) appears to have been associated with a combination of lowered solar irradiance and a particularly intense period of explosive
volcanic activity.
It is also well known that
volcanic activity has a
cooling influence, and
as is well documented by the effects of the 1991 Mount Pinatubo
volcanic eruption.
The cause of this relatively short lived
cooling (it was not a true «ice age») is not fully known, but the sun could have been
cooler, there may have been more
volcanic eruptions, there is a small but persistent
cooling trend due to orbital cycles (
as explained above).
At a recent conference, scientists explained how a major atmospheric circulation known
as the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) was in a negative phase at the onset of the LIA, which amplified the
cooling effect of a reduction in solar irradiance and
volcanic activity.
As an additional influence, intermittent
volcanic activity injects
cooling aerosols into the atmosphere and produces significant
cooling.
As volcanic ash shields the Earth from solar radiation, unusually
cool temperatures rose, leading to famines and plagues.
The short - term variations are dominated by ENSO but also can be influenced by large tropical
volcanic eruptions (such
as occurred in 1963, 1982 and, markedly, 1991), so the years after those eruptions are anomalously
cool.
In the troposphere, major
volcanic events have a strong
cooling effect,
as stratospheric aerosols reflect away some incoming solar radiation before it enters the troposphere.
While the stratosphere recovers from
volcanic events quite quickly, the troposphere takes longer
as some heat is transferred into the oceans, where
cooling - down and heating back up take time.
That left the El Chichon and Pinatubo
volcanic eruptions in 1982 and 1991
as the remaining major natural perturbations to the climate trend, although that had
as much to do with the timing of the eruptions
as it did with the
cooling caused by the nearly global distribution of
volcanic ash in the upper atmosphere.
Disembark on Santiago and be greeted by fresh lava flows veining the waters of Sullivan Bay,
as penguins and herons waddle across the
cooled volcanic rock in search of fish.
Similarly, do you really want to insist that, under analogous conditions, where for some reason solar radiance has gone down and
as a result the atmosphere is
cooling, that somehow an absence of significant
volcanic activity could possibly produce a rise in temperature?
The changes seen in the MSU 4 data (
as even Roy Spencer has pointed out), are mainly due to ozone depletion (
cooling) and
volcanic eruptions (which warm the stratopshere because the extra aerosols absorb more heat locally).
I particularly enjoyed the slides that, when combined (1) provided an overview of hotter and
cooler CO2 molecules
as it relates to how they are seen from outer space and from profile — because this will make it easier for me to explain this process to others; (2) walked through the
volcanic and solar activity vs assigning importance to CO2 changes — because this another way to help make it clearer, too, but in another way; (3) discussed CO2 induced warming and ocean rise vs different choices we might make — because this helps point out why every day's delay matters; and (4) showed Figure 1 from William Nordhaus» «Strategies for Control of Carbon Dioxide» and then super-imposed upon that the global mean temperature in colors showing pre-paper and post-paper periods — because this helps to show just how far back it was possible to make reasoned projections without the aid of a more nuanced and modern understanding.
The cause of this relatively short lived
cooling (it was not a true «ice age») is not fully known, but the sun could have been
cooler, there may have been more
volcanic eruptions, there is a small but persistent
cooling trend due to orbital cycles (
as explained above).
See e.g. this review paper (Schmidt et al, 2004), where the response of a climate model to estimated past changes in natural forcing due to solar irradiance variations and explosive
volcanic eruptions, is shown to match the spatial pattern of reconstructed temperature changes during the «Little Ice Age» (which includes enhanced
cooling in certain regions such
as Europe).
Low
volcanic activity (
as eruptions can have a
cooling effect by blocking out the sun).»
Since aerosols last much longer in the stratosphere than they do in the rainy troposphere, the amount of aerosol - forming substance that would need to be injected into the stratosphere annually is far less than what would be needed to give a similar
cooling effect in the troposphere, though so far
as the stratospheric aerosol burden goes, it would still be a bit like making the Earth a permanently
volcanic planet (think of a Pinatubo or two a year, forever).
Even during the PETM, it took extended
volcanic eruptions on a massive scale that were extensive but not of the kind to eject significant stratospheric sulfates so
as to cause
cooling.
Results showed that aerosols from the
volcanic eruption blocked sunlight, resulting to
cooler seas, which,
as Fasullo says, «skewed our impression of acceleration.»
And one less dust
as compared to
volcanic eruption at Earth / Sun L - 1 to get more
cooling on Earth in comparison.
Taking the aerosol — or
volcanic emanation, it doesn't matter which —
as cooling factor, means that CO2 forcing was overestimated during the post 1975, pre-98 period, and overestimated during the post-98 period.
Still others are quite natural, such
as volcanic eruptions (which can
cool the climate temporarily) and variations in the energy output of the sun.
And lots of people imagine we could be entering a
cooler period in next couple decades, and most are not allowing or counting on, that we could have a large
volcanic eruption
as part of the mix.
Also,
volcanic eruptions such
as that of the Philippines» Mt. Pinatubo in 1991 can
cool the planet for a few years by adding sulfate particles into the stratosphere, reflecting solar radiation back to space.
The eruption in 1783 - 1784 from the fissures of Laki, part of the same
volcanic system
as Katla,
cooled the temperatures in the northern hemisphere by 3º C.
I find it interesting that when there are years with high
volcanic activity, the amount of CO2 increase is not
as much, because of
cooler temperatures.
Explosive
volcanic eruptions can
cool climate for a short period, but can a super-eruption such
as occurred 74 thousand years ago lead to ice sheet formation?
Li et al., 2017 (DOI: 10.1016 / j.quascirev.2017.01.009): «Additionally, increased El Nino - Southern Oscillation (ENSO) strength (possibly El Ni ~ no - like phases) during drying periods, increased
volcanic eruptions and the resulting aerosol load during
cooling periods,
as well
as high volumes of greenhouse gases such
as CO2 and CH4 during the recent warming periods, may also play a role in partly affecting the climatic variability in NC, superimposing on the overall solar dominated long - term control.»
Volcanic eruptions and El Niño events are identified
as sharp
cooling events punctuating a long - term ocean warming trend, while heating continues during the recent upper - ocean - warming hiatus, but the heat is absorbed in the deeper ocean.
Natural variations in climate such
as fluctuations in solar activity,
volcanic activity, or ocean oscillations like El Niño have all contributed to global warming and global
cooling.
As I pointed out,
volcanic eruptions do not produce
cooling, especially on a regular thirty year schedule like their graph shows.
The technique, which is known
as «stratospheric aerosol injection», could
cool the planet in a similar way to a large
volcanic eruption.
Other casualties of the 2006 cuts include an instrument for tracking airborne particles such
as sea spray, smog,
volcanic ash and smoke — all factors contributing to the warming or
cooling of the planet.
Generally, a significant
cooling of the surface occurs in the first weeks after major
volcanic eruptions, lasting for one to two years and leading to modified patterns of precipitation, surface pressure and the teleconnection patterns, such
as the Arctic Oscillation (AO), North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO)
This «hiatus» is probably due to the
cooling influences from natural radiative forcings (more
volcanic eruptions and reducing output from the sun
as part of the natural 11 - year solar cycle) and internal variability (fluctuations within the oceans unrelated to forcings).
Earth has experienced extended periods of
cooling due to more frequent explosive
volcanic eruptions and periods of few sunspots — such
as during the «Little Ice Age» which lasted roughly from 1300 to the 1800s.
The UT researchers gathered 22 hypotheses that had previously been put forward
as mechanisms that
cooled the planet to Snowball Earth levels, including
volcanic eruptions, changes to the planet's rotational axis, and rocks pulling more carbon dioxide out of the atmosphere and locking it away.