Sudden shocks to the system such
as volcanic events will take more time to be neutralised.
Not exact matches
Catastrophes can be caused by various natural
events, including, among others, hurricanes, tornadoes and other windstorms, earthquakes, hail, wildfires, severe winter weather, floods, tsunamis,
volcanic eruptions and other naturally occurring
events, such
as solar flares.
The first 110,000 annual layers of snow in that ice core (GISP2) have been visually counted and corroborated by two to three different and independent methods
as well
as by correlation with
volcanic eruptions and other datable
events.
«
As it's not possible to always successfully predict
volcanic events due to the lack of complete knowledge of the signals leading to catastrophes, these results are an important new finding and ultimately we hope they will contribute to our understanding of where and when the next
volcanic eruption will be.»
(The five previous extinction
events all came before the evolution of Homo sapiens, apparently triggered by a cataclysmic
event or combination of
events, such
as a fall in sea level, an asteroid impact,
volcanic activity.)
Infrasound signals can remain strong
as they travel over large distances, making them useful for pinpointing the location and size of
events such
as nuclear explosions, meteorite strikes,
volcanic eruptions and sometimes earthquake ruptures.
These datasets will be used to improve strategic and hazard - warning capabilities of
events in near real - time, such
as tracking plumes from dust storms,
volcanic eruptions, and wildfires.
Following the discovery of
volcanic rocks of the same age
as the extinction,
volcanic carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions had previously been suggested
as an important contributor to this extinction
event.
This further evidence of episodic emissions of
volcanic CO2
as the likely driver of the extinction enhances our understanding of this
event, and potentially of other climate change episodes in Earth's history.»
Tsunamis triggered by point - source
events such
as volcanic collapses or submarine landslides are not likely to have
as wide an impact because the waves appear to dissipate quickly with distance.
Volcanic explosions can produce these low - frequency acoustic waves,
as well
as events such
as meteors entering Earth's atmosphere, and even chemical or nuclear explosions.
Giant lateral collapses are rather common
events during the evolution of a large
volcanic edifice, often with dramatic consequences such
as tsunami and volcano explosions.
The inter-annual temperature variability is linked to natural effects such
as major
volcanic eruptions, ENSO
events and solar variability.
The
volcanic events associated with these intervals caused global weather and climate phenomena and are often used by climate modelers
as well to understand
volcanic sulfate loading on the climate.
In the troposphere, major
volcanic events have a strong cooling effect,
as stratospheric aerosols reflect away some incoming solar radiation before it enters the troposphere.
While the stratosphere recovers from
volcanic events quite quickly, the troposphere takes longer
as some heat is transferred into the oceans, where cooling - down and heating back up take time.
Most homeowner policies cover direct damages that result from
volcanic eruptions, but do not cover floods or earthquakes that occur
as a separate
event, or in the aftermath of a
volcanic eruption.
She has captured such
events as speeding motorcycles on the Bonneville Salt Flats, Olympic synchronized swimmers in their attempts to defy gravity, kayaks performing a synchronized ballet in Arctic waters, sulfur miners inside an active volcano, a camel caravan crossing the Taklamakan desert of Western China, the exploration of an otherworldly crystal cavern half a mile below the earth's surface, and Afar nomads defending the volatile and
volcanic Danakil Depression in the Horn of Africa.
The computer models deal with the actual energy and matter flows within, and in and out of the system, and do not account for random geological or cosmological
events, such
as volcanic eruptions or asteroid impacts, solar disturbances, etc..
I say usually, since there are cases such
as the trees flattened by the Tunguska impact, or buried by
volcanic ash, that quite obviously recorded direct effects these
event.
So without any ice core evidence of a
volcanic event in AD 540, a cosmic impact could be seen
as the next best cause for a two stage
event.
I've sometimes thought that global cataclysms like the largest
volcanic eruptions would disrupt the glacial records by many years, like Oruanui eruption c. 26500bp,
as these would induce unrecorded behavior in weather and other things, f.e. the huge ash deposits might decrease the albedo so much a local melting
event happens.
If we know how to simulate a
volcanic haze
event as the plant would see it — Grow one set of plants with no direct sunlight but exposed to enhanced diffuse skylight vs. another set growing in direct sunlight and normal skylight?
Flxible, diffused light is described
as enhancing growth, for some plants;
volcanic events might increase the diffused and lessen the direct sunlight; the two effects might cancel out.
In fact, climate models are tested against historic trends, both near history and distant history, and then tested against specific
events, such
as the effects of
volcanic eruption.
So those lesser El Nino
events would bias any statistical analyses,
as would the
volcanic eruptions.
If by observational data, you mean the amount of aerosols in the atmosphere, I think that would be a key piece of information that would need to be included in the models
as without it the response to
volcanic events can not be modeled or predicted.
Their causes range from completely unpredictable
events like
volcanic eruptions (which have mainly local effects) to more regular phenomena such
as «El Niño» (a warming of the surface waters of the tropical Pacific that occurs every three to five years, temporarily affecting weather world - wide).
As these things are fitting in category of predictable - and global decadal volcanic prediction isn't as an amusing game at this time - though the «right» volcanic events could change this into a new poplar fetis
As these things are fitting in category of predictable - and global decadal
volcanic prediction isn't
as an amusing game at this time - though the «right» volcanic events could change this into a new poplar fetis
as an amusing game at this time - though the «right»
volcanic events could change this into a new poplar fetish.
Burning fossil fuels such
as coal and petroleum adds carbon to the atmosphere that would otherwise remain trapped underground for perpetuity, absent geologic
events such
as volcanic eruptions or oil seepage.
The averaging reduces the signal from short - term natural variability, such
as associated with El Niño
events and
volcanic eruptions, which can leave a clear mark on annual averages.
The iconic climate curve, a combination of observed land and ocean temperatures, has quite a few ups and downs, most of which climate scientists can easily associate with natural phenomena such
as large
volcanic eruptions or El Nino
events.
The 2011 paper of Foster and Rahmstorf presents a possible further interpretation where the period 1977 - 2010 is presented
as a combination of effects due to ENSO, solar irradiation and aerosol optical depth (
volcanic events) and a linear trend.
As an example, using online monthly climate agency data I made this chart to help me understand how the long term temperature trends are affected by major
volcanic eruptions and El Nino - La Nina
events.
«A climate pattern may come in the form of a regular cycle, like the diurnal cycle or the seasonal cycle; a quasi periodic
event, like El Niño; or a highly irregular
event, such
as a
volcanic winter... A mode of variability is a climate pattern with identifiable characteristics, specific regional effects, and often oscillatory behavior... the mode of variability with the greatest effect on climates worldwide is the seasonal cycle, followed by El Niño - Southern Oscillation, followed by thermohaline circulation.»
I consider it
as very likely that the 20 year trends will still be statistically significant also in three, five or ten years from now, unless there is some strong
volcanic explosion that blows a lot of reflecting aerosols in the stratosphere causing a temporary temperature dip, or some other cause the effect of which is explainable within the framework of current knowledge about the climate system, but
as event not really predictable.
Volcanic eruptions and El Niño
events are identified
as sharp cooling
events punctuating a long - term ocean warming trend, while heating continues during the recent upper - ocean - warming hiatus, but the heat is absorbed in the deeper ocean.
As for aerosols, you seem to be under the illusion that the only thing that matters is
volcanic events, and even then only that they happen.
And that this is reflected in individual model runs but
as the timing of
events such
as El Nino / La Nina,
volcanic eruptions etc. is unpredictable when projections are made based on ensemble runs then they will tend to average out and the projection will show a fairly steady trend.
These particles remain in the ice thousands of years later, providing physical evidence of past global
events, such
as major
volcanic eruptions.
Their projections are not even in principle forecasts because the modelers have no way of knowing what exogenous
events such
as major
volcanic eruptions might occur.
Volcanic activity puts a great number of gaseous materials into the atmosphere so any warming as a result of severe volcanic events would be more likely a result of increasing overall atmospheric density rather than just being attributable to CO2 em
Volcanic activity puts a great number of gaseous materials into the atmosphere so any warming
as a result of severe
volcanic events would be more likely a result of increasing overall atmospheric density rather than just being attributable to CO2 em
volcanic events would be more likely a result of increasing overall atmospheric density rather than just being attributable to CO2 emissions.
So what they do is add the
volcanic disturbances from known historical
events, such
as Pinatubi, etc..
92) If one factors in non-greenhouse influences such
as El Nino
events and large
volcanic eruptions, lower atmosphere satellite - based temperature measurements show little, if any, global warming since 1979, a period over which atmospheric CO2 has increased by 55 ppm (17 per cent).
Some commentators have responded to those questions with bewilderment and — at least partial — resignation,
as if rightwing populism and hatred are unavoidable socio - political
events, much like
volcanic eruptions or earthquakes.
As it is now, temperature response to
volcanic forcing leads
events in some cases which is obviously wrong and
volcanic (aerosols) forcing direct and indirect effects are the second largest source of model uncertainty.
We do not know enough to determine under what circumstance CO2 is a forcing or a feedback relative to temperature sometimes it maybe both sometimes over large areas it may even be a coolant e.g. if you think it is the main driver (which I don't) you would have to say it acted
as a coolant for several thousand years from the Holocene climate optimum to the LIA — see Fig 6 in the last post at http://climatesense-norpag.blogspot.com I quoted the end Permian Siberian traps
as a possible example of CO2
as a forcing but even here CO2 was rising rapidly before the
volcanic event.
In fact the long term behaviour of the temperature record does correlate reasonably well with CO2 in the long term (longer than the semi-regular modulations due to ENSO and other shorter term forcings and the duration of intermittent one off
events such
as volcanic activity).
Professor Plimer said climate change was caused by natural
events such
as volcanic eruptions, the shifting of the Earth's orbit and cosmic radiation.
What does seem to be known is that aerosols fall out of the lower atmosphere (
as high
as they can be launched with conventional bombs) in days, and persist for less than 2 years when launched into the stratosphere by a major
volcanic event like Pinatubo which was equivalent to several H bombs.