Rocky planets like Earth, Mars and Venus gained their atmospheres
as volcanic gasses like carbon dioxide and water vapor were released from the planets» interiors.
Not exact matches
Prior to an eruption,
gases — water vapor, carbon dioxide, and sulfur dioxide — bubble out of the magma
as it rises, adding more pressure to the
volcanic system, she explains.
Their study also did not incorporate other important predictors for
volcanic eruptions such
as earthquakes and
gas output — although the researchers plan to include these measurements in future studies.
Their findings: natural influences such
as changes in the amount of sunlight or
volcanic eruptions did not explain the warming trends, but the results matched when increasing levels of greenhouse
gas emissions were added to the mix.
That's because
volcanic outgassing helps a planet maintain moderate, life - inviting temperatures, regulating the atmosphere by cycling
gases such
as carbon dioxide between the atmosphere and the mantle.
Volcanic magma, the molten mix of rock and
gas below Earth's surface, leads a sort of double life: It spends some time
as a hot liquid and some
as a colder, rocky «crystal mush.»
The researchers warn, however, that the future evolution of the AMO remains uncertain, with many factors potentially affecting how it interacts with atmospheric circulation patterns, such
as Arctic sea ice loss, changes in solar radiation,
volcanic eruptions and concentrations of greenhouse
gases in the atmosphere.
The models, which factor in natural effects such
as solar winds and
volcanic eruptions, along with anthropogenic forcings like greenhouse
gases and aerosols, match these precipitation variations accurately in trend and reasonably well in magnitude.
So the report notes that the current «pause» in new global average temperature records since 1998 — a year that saw the second strongest El Nino on record and shattered warming records — does not reflect the long - term trend and may be explained by the oceans absorbing the majority of the extra heat trapped by greenhouse
gases as well
as the cooling contributions of
volcanic eruptions.
«Ground - based measurements of
volcanic gases that are more difficult to measure from space, such
as carbon dioxide, are crucial.
I won't argue that our added
gases may contribute to the warming to some very, very small degree, but keep in mind, the ash plume from a good
volcanic eruption such
as the last big Pinatubo eruption eclipses into insignificants the amount of pollutants added to the atmosphere by human activity.
Aerosols can be natural, such
as fog or
gas from
volcanic eruptions, or artificial, such
as smoke from burning fossil fuels.
In Earth's past the trigger for these greenhouse
gas emissions was often unusually massive
volcanic eruptions known
as «Large Igneous Provinces,» with knock - on effects that included huge releases of CO2 and methane from organic - rich sediments.
A volcano is a rupture in the crust of a planetary - mass object, such
as Earth, that allows hot lava,
volcanic ash, and
gases to escape from a magma chamber Evolutionists have long used the carbon - 14, or radiocarbon, dating technique
as a «hammer» to bludgeon Bible - believing Christians.
It has long been suspected that the low solar activity during the Maunder Minimum was one of the causes of the Little Ice Age, although other factors like a small drop in greenhouse
gas concentrations around 1600 and strong
volcanic eruptions during that time likely played a role
as well.
I won't argue that our added
gases may contribute to the warming to some very, very small degree, but keep in mind, the ash plume from a good
volcanic eruption such
as the last big Pinatubo eruption eclipses into insignificants the amount of pollutants added to the atmosphere by human activity.
One «theory» for the strength of the Permian - Triasac extinction is that the
volcanics (roughly a million cubic kilometers worth) erupted through thich layers of coal, and therefore liberated at huge amount of CO2
as well
as the usual
volcanic gases and ash.
Some of these forcings are well known and understood (such
as the well - mixed greenhouse
gases, or recent
volcanic effects), while others have an uncertain magnitude (solar), and / or uncertain distributions in space and time (aerosols, tropospheric ozone etc.), or uncertain physics (land use change, aerosol indirect effects etc.).
Recently I have been looking at the climate models collected in the CMIP3 archive which have been analysed and assessed in IPCC and it is very interesting to see how the forced changes — i.e. the changes driven the external factors such
as greenhouse
gases, tropospheric aerosols, solar forcing and stratospheric
volcanic aerosols drive the forced response in the models (which you can see by averaging out several simulations of the same model with the same forcing)-- differ from the internal variability, such
as associated with variations of the North Atlantic and the ENSO etc, which you can see by looking at individual realisations of a particular model and how it differs from the ensemble mean.
The IPCC has failed to convincingly explain the pause in terms of external radiative forcing from greenhouse
gases, aerosols, solar or
volcanic forcing; this leaves natural internal variability
as the predominant candidate to explain the pause.
One driver of temperatures in this region is the abundance and variability of ozone, but water vapor,
volcanic aerosols, and dynamical changes such
as the Quasi - Biennial Oscillation (QBO) are also significant; anthropogenic increases in other greenhouse
gases such
as carbon dioxide play a lesser but significant role in the lower stratosphere.
Case in point, some natural occurance such
as volcanic erruptions also put tremendous
gases into atmosphere and have affected world weather patterns.
At CEC14, Bjørn Samset presented modelling which suggested the possibility of deploying short - lived greenhouse
gases, such
as forms of HFC, to counter the effects of a large
volcanic eruption.
This is the portion of temperature change that is imposed on the ocean - atmosphere - land system from the outside and it includes contributions from anthropogenic increases in greenhouse
gasses, aerosols, and land - use change
as well
as changes in solar radiation and
volcanic aerosols.
[4] The ocean's influence extends even to the composition of
volcanic rocks through seafloor metamorphism,
as well
as to that of
volcanic gases and magmas created at subduction zones.
First, while the early 20th century warming was likely predominantly naturally - caused (i.e. low
volcanic activity and increasing solar activity), there was also a significant human contribution
as greenhouse
gas emissions began to ramp up.
As far as the original post goes, if you simply look at calculated forcings from known sources (Volcanic Aerosol, Solar Irradience and Greenhouse gases) you can replicate the last 150 years of temperature records surprisingly well; take any of these factors out and you can no
As far
as the original post goes, if you simply look at calculated forcings from known sources (Volcanic Aerosol, Solar Irradience and Greenhouse gases) you can replicate the last 150 years of temperature records surprisingly well; take any of these factors out and you can no
as the original post goes, if you simply look at calculated forcings from known sources (
Volcanic Aerosol, Solar Irradience and Greenhouse
gases) you can replicate the last 150 years of temperature records surprisingly well; take any of these factors out and you can not.
External processes such
as the increase in the concentration of greenhouse
gases and variability due to
volcanic eruptions are also important for driving variability in atmospheric circulation patterns.
«Since 1997, when Pinatubo's aerosol settled out, the stratosphere has been exceptionally clear... Half or more of the warming since 1995 may due to the lack of large
volcanic eruptions... That's about 0.13 °C... The remaining climate change is presumably caused by other forces, such
as solar variability, El Nino, Atlantic AMO warming in 1995, lower Albedo and maybe even a little greenhouse
gas.»
Stott analyzed the response of HadCM3 with different combinations of forcings, varying greenhouse
gases, sulfate and ozone components, and
volcanic activity, and with three solar models, HS, LBB, and an update to LBB designated
as Lean et al. (1995a).
Li et al., 2017 (DOI: 10.1016 / j.quascirev.2017.01.009): «Additionally, increased El Nino - Southern Oscillation (ENSO) strength (possibly El Ni ~ no - like phases) during drying periods, increased
volcanic eruptions and the resulting aerosol load during cooling periods,
as well
as high volumes of greenhouse
gases such
as CO2 and CH4 during the recent warming periods, may also play a role in partly affecting the climatic variability in NC, superimposing on the overall solar dominated long - term control.»
The newest phase of Kilauea volcano's ongoing eruption has opened
as many
as 20 new fissures on Hawaii's Big Island over the past two weeks, spewing lava and
volcanic gases, forcing the evacuation of nearly 2,000 residents, and destroying dozens of homes near the town of Pahoa.
This rapid warming is consistent with the scientific understanding of how the climate should respond to a rapid increase in greenhouse
gases like that which has occurred over the past century, and the warming is inconsistent with the scientific understanding of how the climate should respond to natural external factors such
as variability in solar output and
volcanic activity.
To identify the effects of human activity on temperature, we simulate the model (estimation sample 1960 — 1998) with post 1998 values of solar insolation, SOI, and
volcanic sulfates held at their 1998 level while allowing greenhouse
gas concentrations and sulfur emissions to evolve
as observed.
Conversely, holding greenhouse
gas concentrations and sulfur emissions at their 1998 values and allowing solar insolation, SOI, and
volcanic sulfates to evolve
as observed generates a forecast that is consistent with the observed pattern of temperature change.
The model included a more comprehensive set of natural and human - made climate forcings than previous studies, including changes in solar radiation,
volcanic particles, human - made greenhouse
gases, fine particles such
as soot, the effect of the particles on clouds and land use.
Traditionally, climate - model projections have only accounted for external forcings, such
as man - made greenhouse
gases, past
volcanic eruptions and projected changes in solar output.
Most agree it's difficult to determine exactly what is driving late summer temperatures in the tropical Atlantic — be it natural climate variability, greenhouse
gases or some other factor, such
as volcanic eruptions.
To that you answer if the temperature ever starts to rise, due to say
volcanic heat, or upwelling to water's surface, the heat is immediately removed by the power of evaporation
as infrared - resonant
gases chug heat straight up through the atmospheric mix to belch it out radiatively at higher altitude; while simultaneously dragging other, non-infrared resonant
gases upward with them, to also dump THEIR heat radiatively, from a higher position than they would have, had the refrigerative cycle not taken place.
The only direct real - world inputs to these models, in a climate change simulation context, are changes in atmospheric chemistry and composition (such
as increasing greenhouse
gases, or changing
volcanic aerosols) and changes in solar radiation.
-- paleoclimate data reflecting past climate states very different from today — climate response to
volcanic eruptions, solar changes and other non-greenhouse
gas forcings — timescales different from those relevant for climate stabilization, such
as the climate response to
volcanic eruptions
But to quantify the influences (or «forcings» in climate jargon) even further, they considered three anthropogenic forcings — well - mixed greenhouse
gases, sulfate aerosols, and tropospheric and stratospheric ozone —
as well
as two natural forcings — changes in solar irradiance and
volcanic aerosols — all of which are likely to influence tropopause height.»
«although other factors like a small drop in greenhouse
gas concentrations around 1600 and strong
volcanic eruptions during that time likely played a role
as well.»
There have been numerous research papers and reviews published over the past 10 years, including several in prestigious journals such
as Nature and Science, that conclude that the observed temperature changes over the past 100 years are consistent with the combined changes in atmospheric aerosols (
volcanic and anthropogenic), land surface changes, variations in solar irradiance and increases in greenhouse
gases.
Modellers were able to «peek at the answer» since they could not only observe inputs to the climate system (such
as historical greenhouse
gas levels,
volcanic activity, solar changes and so forth) but also the simulation targets, namely average temperatures, when tuning their models.
The models (and there are many) have numerous common behaviours — they all cool following a big
volcanic eruption, like that at Mount Pinatubo in 1991; they all warm
as levels of greenhouse
gases are increased; they show the same relationships connecting water vapour and temperature that we see in observations; and they can quantify how the giant lakes left over from the Ice Age may have caused a rapid cooling across the North Atlantic
as they drained and changed ocean circulation patterns.
A number of anthropogenic and natural factors (e.g., aerosols, greenhouse
gases,
volcanic activity, solar variability, and internal climate variability) must be considered
as potential contributors, and the science remains highly uncertain in these areas.
Figure 4 shows that changes in several external forcings over the ETCW could be important, such
as: a greenhouse
gas increase, a small change in solar irradiance, and a reduction in stratospheric aerosols associated with reduced
volcanic activity.
Such is the complexity of rainfall patterns that changes can be caused both by human factors, such
as greenhouse
gas emissions and atmospheric pollutants, and natural factors, such
as changes in the sun's activity and explosive
volcanic eruptions.