As well
as voting intention, there will be daily topical questions on whatever issues arise at the conferences.
As well
as the voting intention Populus also asked about various Parliamentary reforms.
And it's true that the change in voting intentions has been less dramatic - but nonetheless, as my colleague Roger Mortimore has pointed out, at this stage of a parliament it can be just as useful to look at approval ratings
as voting intention.
This measure is worth looking at in more detail
as voting intention polls led many forecasters astray in 2015.
Not exact matches
Dogwood's Strategy Director Will Horter reflects on this historic day It looks like British Columbians may finally get a government ready to fight for what's right in B.C. Today, Christy Clark announced her
intention to bring back the B.C. legislature
as soon
as possible in June, face a confidence
vote and hand over power to -LSB-...]
God reviews our true
intentions minute by minute, we
vote in leaders with no or little morals
as long
as our stocks go up.
On the same day his sale of the Buffalo Sabres to Pennsylvania oil and gas magnate Terry Pegula becomes official, Paychex founder erstwhile gubernatorial hopeful Tom Golisano is announcing his
intention to try to do away with the Electoral College
as part of the National Popular
Vote campaign.
In doing so, we did find a statistically significant positive correlation between performance and
voting intention as measured by Public Policy Polling data around the same time.
One of the major talking points has been Lord Ashcroft's recent polls of 16 Scottish constituencies, which attracted special attention because unlike the other polling companies it drilled down to constituencies rather than just
voting intentions as a whole.
The poll's figures for general election
voting intentions are not
as bad but still not good: although the headline figures are Con 31 %, Lab 36 %, LD 9 %, UKIP 15 %, of those who
voted Labour in 2010, 9 % are said to be intending to
vote UKIP.
The briefing was smoked out by an «Email your MP» campaign launched by the People's Pledge just 48 hours beforehand,
as Labour MPs then contacted party headquarters to ask how they should respond to questions from constituents about their
voting intentions on July 5.
This is the only poll of the campaign that would usually be regarded
as a «final poll», that is one that has been conducted sufficiently closely to polling day that its accuracy can reasonably be assessed by comparing its
voting intentions with the tally of
votes that actually emerges from the ballot boxes.
To an extent
voting intention polls are once again an irrelevance anyway following Sir Menzies Campbell's resignation
as Lib Dem leader.
ICM also asked a
voting intention question asking how people would
vote assuming that Gordon Brown was Labour leader — like YouGov's poll earlier this week this showed Labour doing worse under Brown than under Blair; with Brown
as leader
voting intention would be CON 40 %, LAB 37 %, LD 18 %.
Asked by Louis is he would step aside
as leader if it were for the good of the conference (this has long been viewed
as a foregone conclusion, since Klein has made it quite clear he has no
intention of
voting for Sampson to retain his spot), Sampson replied:
As was the position before Tony Blair resigned, we once again have a known unknown ahead of us — we know that in mid-December the Liberal Democrats will have a new leader, but we can't know until then what effect it will have on people's
voting intentions — it may have none, it may see the Lib Dems taking support back off Labour, or off the Conservatives.
In most seats this is only a marginal difference — in Lib Dem held seats it can be substantial,
as repeatedly shown in polls of Lib Dem marginal seats using a two - stage national - then - constituency
voting intention questions (see here by Lord Ashcroft, and here by YouGov).
In a YouGov poll for the Sunday Times published on August 22, UKIP received 14 % in
voting intentions, almost twice
as much
as the Liberal Democrats.
Interestingly, when asked how unlikely people were to change their
voting intentions, Scots came out
as the most unlikely at 44 % compared to a nationwide average of 34 %.
While the city's request has been winding its way through the regulatory pipeline for a number of years, the governor's office has given no indication regarding his
intentions in terms of whether or not,
as one of eight Great Lake states governors with veto power over the proposal, he will
vote to approve the unprecedented water diversion.
Mr Cameron announced his
intention to resign
as prime minister on 24 June, after finding himself on the losing side of the EU referendum, with the UK
voting by 52 % to 48 % in favour of leaving.
The problem is that,
as a traditional driver of
voting intention, constitutional reform ranks behind just about every other measure you can think of - even more so in a recession.
There was better news for Labour south of the border at 5 pm
as a new ComRes poll of
voting intentions in Tory - held marginals put Labour 3 % ahead.
In a bid to assure the NDC of not giving failure a chance if he is
voted as flagbearer of the party again, he stated, «To you the teeming supporters and sympathizers calling and requesting me to declare my
intentions for the future, I wish to assure you today, that
as a servant - leader, I have listened to your calls and reflected.
But analysts are nervous of predicting events in too much detail
as so much uncertainty continues to shroud turnout and
voting intention in these areas - where the AV campaign has barely registered.
YouGov did the fieldwork for two academic election surveys (the British Election Study and the SCMS)
as well
as their daily polling, and all three used different question ordering (daily polling asked
voting intention first, SCMS after a couple of questions, the BES after a bank of questions on important issues, which party is more trusted and party leaders) so will allow testing of the effect of «priming questions».
Typically though the main factors in
voting intention are things like party identification, perceptions of the leaders and the parties's perceived competence on whatever voters see
as the important issues of the day.
[166] Morris claimed that telephone polls that immediately asked for
voting intentions tended to get a high «Don't know» or anti-government reaction, whereas longer telephone conversations conducted by private polls that collected other information such
as views on the leaders» performances placed voters in a much better mode to give their true
voting intentions.
As with
voting intention polls, if you look at oppositions that went on to win the next election, they won mid-term local elections hands down.
Labour were ahead in
voting intention throughout most of the last Parliament, but were behind on economic competence and leadership, which are normally seen
as important drivers of
voting intention (the ultimate explanation of this apparent paradox was, of course, that the
voting intention polls were wrong).
The day after Cuomo made his
intentions perfectly clear by asking his email list to
vote for him on his fake Women's Equality Party line, he referred to WFP
as the «Working Short People» party and «fringe.»
It is polling
as the third largest political force post-Brexit with 15 % of
voting intentions.
Similarly, the Alternative
Vote places an artificial construct on voter's
intentions, forcing them to make second preference choices - before they actually know the result, which inevitably would disproportionately favour the Liberal Democrats
as being the «centre» party.
Despite the 10 - point Labour lead in
voting intention the majority of voters in these seats said either that they were satisfied with David Cameron's performance
as Prime Minister (29 %) or that they were dissatisfied but would rather he were PM than Ed Miliband (29 %).
Of course — the same caveats that I used to attach to polls asking hypothetical questions about
voting intention under potential Tory leaders apply to questions about potential Labour leaders
as well — it may be a long time until we know what effect a Gordon Brown leadership would really have on Labour support.
Note also that, judging from the tables, ComRes have switched over to prompting for UKIP in their main
voting intention question in this poll —
as with their last national poll, it does not seem to have had a major effect (UPDATE — I think this is because ComRes have changed turnout weightings, so that there is a tighter turnout filter for the Greens and UKIP than for the main parties).
«If that was the
intention, it worked,» Gordon said, who ended up with 32 percent of the
vote, compared with 41 percent for Madden and 25 percent for Rodney Wiltshire, who ran
as the Working Families Party candidate.
As in 2011, Lord Ashcroft has asked
voting intention twice in the poll, first asking a standard
voting intention question, then asking people to think specifically about their own seat and asking how they would
vote there.
It's worth remembering that all these theoretical «with Brown
as leader»
voting intention questions also include the assumption that Charlie Kennedy will still be Lib Dem leader — something that looks considerably less likely after the past week.
Secondly there is a ComRes poll of Londoners, the first I can recall seeing since Brian Paddick was selected
as the Lib Dem candidate (and, therefore, the first to have a
voting intention question with a proper candidate names for all parties, rather than featuring «a Lib Dem candidate»).
An advantage among new enrollees doesn't necessarily translate into an advantage among actual voters for Democrats,
as young adults tend to be both more liberal and less likely to
vote than their older neighbors, but the current trend doesn't appear to be driven by an large number of 18 year olds who filled out registration forms to please their parents and have no
intention of actually
voting.
Our latest
voting intention figures for the Sunday Times have the Liberal Democrats at 12 %, their lowest level of support since 2007 when the party removed Menzies Campbell
as leader, and a halving of their support since the General Election.
As far as I can recall the last proper ComRes poll of London voting intentions was in March (there was one that asked which candidate people were inclined to support in September, but it was a small sample and wasn't really comparable), and showed Ken very narrowly ahead, so this suggests a move towards Boris though, given the difference in the question now that other candidates are known, I wouldn't read too much into tha
As far
as I can recall the last proper ComRes poll of London voting intentions was in March (there was one that asked which candidate people were inclined to support in September, but it was a small sample and wasn't really comparable), and showed Ken very narrowly ahead, so this suggests a move towards Boris though, given the difference in the question now that other candidates are known, I wouldn't read too much into tha
as I can recall the last proper ComRes poll of London
voting intentions was in March (there was one that asked which candidate people were inclined to support in September, but it was a small sample and wasn't really comparable), and showed Ken very narrowly ahead, so this suggests a move towards Boris though, given the difference in the question now that other candidates are known, I wouldn't read too much into that.
They probably don't translate into a better
voting intention figure because the public also have a positive recollection of Ken Livingstone's period in office - 56 % think Livingstone did well
as mayor, compared to 36 % who think he did badly.
Like the Sunday Telegraph poll, ICM's Guardian poll also asked a theoretical
voting intention poll with Gordon Brown
as Labour leader.
If the leaders remain
as they are now at the next election (which YouGov ask
as a control question) people's
voting intentions would be CON 34, LAB 41, LDEM 9 (when asked this way it consistently shows a slightly smaller Labour lead than usual — probably the effect of mentioning Ed Miliband in the question).
This is likely to be because best Prime Minister questions are strongly influenced by party allegiance, and the questions seem to have been asked
as part of a standard ICM omnibus poll, which doesn't weight by past
vote unless there are
voting intention questions.
The ICM poll for the Guardian also included a
voting intention question with Brown
as Labour leader, which showed the now normal pattern of the Conservatives doing better against Labour with Brown instead of Blair.
As our daily polling shows little fluctuation in
voting intention despite conference season, Peter Kellner questions the need for conferences so far from an election
This is because a significant number of Londoners — 8 % of our total sample — are Labour supporters (according to their General Election
voting intention) who prefer Boris
as mayor.