Sentences with phrase «as voting intention polls»

This measure is worth looking at in more detail as voting intention polls led many forecasters astray in 2015.

Not exact matches

In doing so, we did find a statistically significant positive correlation between performance and voting intention as measured by Public Policy Polling data around the same time.

One of the major talking points has been Lord Ashcroft's recent polls of 16 Scottish constituencies, which attracted special attention because unlike the other polling companies it drilled down to constituencies rather than just voting intentions as a whole.

The poll's figures for general election voting intentions are not as bad but still not good: although the headline figures are Con 31 %, Lab 36 %, LD 9 %, UKIP 15 %, of those who voted Labour in 2010, 9 % are said to be intending to vote UKIP.

This is the only poll of the campaign that would usually be regarded as a «final poll», that is one that has been conducted sufficiently closely to polling day that its accuracy can reasonably be assessed by comparing its voting intentions with the tally of votes that actually emerges from the ballot boxes.

To an extent voting intention polls are once again an irrelevance anyway following Sir Menzies Campbell's resignation as Lib Dem leader.

ICM also asked a voting intention question asking how people would vote assuming that Gordon Brown was Labour leader — like YouGov's poll earlier this week this showed Labour doing worse under Brown than under Blair; with Brown as leader voting intention would be CON 40 %, LAB 37 %, LD 18 %.

In most seats this is only a marginal difference — in Lib Dem held seats it can be substantial, as repeatedly shown in polls of Lib Dem marginal seats using a two - stage national - then - constituency voting intention questions (see here by Lord Ashcroft, and here by YouGov).

In a YouGov poll for the Sunday Times published on August 22, UKIP received 14 % in voting intentions, almost twice as much as the Liberal Democrats.

There was better news for Labour south of the border at 5 pm as a new ComRes poll of voting intentions in Tory - held marginals put Labour 3 % ahead.

YouGov did the fieldwork for two academic election surveys (the British Election Study and the SCMS) as well as their daily polling, and all three used different question ordering (daily polling asked voting intention first, SCMS after a couple of questions, the BES after a bank of questions on important issues, which party is more trusted and party leaders) so will allow testing of the effect of «priming questions».

[166] Morris claimed that telephone polls that immediately asked for voting intentions tended to get a high «Don't know» or anti-government reaction, whereas longer telephone conversations conducted by private polls that collected other information such as views on the leaders» performances placed voters in a much better mode to give their true voting intentions.

As with voting intention polls, if you look at oppositions that went on to win the next election, they won mid-term local elections hands down.

Labour were ahead in voting intention throughout most of the last Parliament, but were behind on economic competence and leadership, which are normally seen as important drivers of voting intention (the ultimate explanation of this apparent paradox was, of course, that the voting intention polls were wrong).

It is polling as the third largest political force post-Brexit with 15 % of voting intentions.

Of course — the same caveats that I used to attach to polls asking hypothetical questions about voting intention under potential Tory leaders apply to questions about potential Labour leaders as well — it may be a long time until we know what effect a Gordon Brown leadership would really have on Labour support.

Note also that, judging from the tables, ComRes have switched over to prompting for UKIP in their main voting intention question in this poll — as with their last national poll, it does not seem to have had a major effect (UPDATE — I think this is because ComRes have changed turnout weightings, so that there is a tighter turnout filter for the Greens and UKIP than for the main parties).

As in 2011, Lord Ashcroft has asked voting intention twice in the poll, first asking a standard voting intention question, then asking people to think specifically about their own seat and asking how they would vote there.

Secondly there is a ComRes poll of Londoners, the first I can recall seeing since Brian Paddick was selected as the Lib Dem candidate (and, therefore, the first to have a voting intention question with a proper candidate names for all parties, rather than featuring «a Lib Dem candidate»).

As far as I can recall the last proper ComRes poll of London voting intentions was in March (there was one that asked which candidate people were inclined to support in September, but it was a small sample and wasn't really comparable), and showed Ken very narrowly ahead, so this suggests a move towards Boris though, given the difference in the question now that other candidates are known, I wouldn't read too much into thaAs far as I can recall the last proper ComRes poll of London voting intentions was in March (there was one that asked which candidate people were inclined to support in September, but it was a small sample and wasn't really comparable), and showed Ken very narrowly ahead, so this suggests a move towards Boris though, given the difference in the question now that other candidates are known, I wouldn't read too much into thaas I can recall the last proper ComRes poll of London voting intentions was in March (there was one that asked which candidate people were inclined to support in September, but it was a small sample and wasn't really comparable), and showed Ken very narrowly ahead, so this suggests a move towards Boris though, given the difference in the question now that other candidates are known, I wouldn't read too much into that.

Like the Sunday Telegraph poll, ICM's Guardian poll also asked a theoretical voting intention poll with Gordon Brown as Labour leader.

This is likely to be because best Prime Minister questions are strongly influenced by party allegiance, and the questions seem to have been asked as part of a standard ICM omnibus poll, which doesn't weight by past vote unless there are voting intention questions.

The ICM poll for the Guardian also included a voting intention question with Brown as Labour leader, which showed the now normal pattern of the Conservatives doing better against Labour with Brown instead of Blair.

As our daily polling shows little fluctuation in voting intention despite conference season, Peter Kellner questions the need for conferences so far from an election

Since Cameron became leader, every time a hypothetical poll about voting intention with Gordon Brown as leader has been asked, it has shown either the parties neck and neck or a Tory lead, and the majority have shown Brown doing worse than Blair.

Polls like this can only either be hypothetical, so we'll never know what will really happen until Blair is replaced, but what would give us the best idea is a normal voting intention question prompting with party leader names, and then another voting intention question but with Gordon Brown as the Labour leader (and then possibly, just to put the cat among the pigeons, some with Alan Johnson, John Reid, Hilary Benn, etc, etc...)

As I've said before, all reputable pollsters will put voting intention questions at the start of a poll to make sure other questions don't skew the answers.