It is also known
as warming in the pipeline.
David (# 29) and Gaz (# 30): In another discussion Barry has said that global surface temperatures have indeed levelled out (while cautioning that this ignores factors such
as warming in the pipeline).
Not exact matches
As has been the case with the Keystone
pipeline,
in New York the opposition comes from those concerned about global
warming.
Since temperatures are already raised and there is more
warming in the
pipeline, who is to say that CO2 will adjust downwards
as opposed to temperatures adjusting upwards.
The Kia Ceed at this point then is hardly an evo - centric car, but then
as opposed to the influx of compact SUVs, and with the possibility of a
warmer future offering
in the
pipeline, we'll take one of these over a dull compact SUV any day.
If we have had 1C of
warming (giss) since pre-industrial and human made aerosols are masking between 0.5 and 1.1 (Samset et al) and there is
warming «
in the
pipeline»
as well — has the possibility of a 1.5 C target already passed?
If we knew ocean heat uptake
as well
as we know atmospheric temperature change, then we could pin down fairly well the radiative imbalance at the top of the atmosphere, which would give us a fair indication of how much
warming is «
in the
pipeline» given current greenhouse gas concentrations.
The current energy imbalance at the surface (
as demonstrated by the increasing heat content of the oceans) implies there is at least a further 0.5 deg C surface
warming in the «
pipeline».
Further
warming from the present increases are still «
in the
pipeline»
as they say.
There's still plenty of global
warming and centuries of coastal retreats
in the
pipeline, so this is hardly a «benign» situation,
as some have cast it.
But aren't these way too low, since LOTI shows we are —
as of 2017 — already around 0.95 C
warmer than the 1951 - 1980 average, and there is more
warming «
in the
pipeline» because of the time lag, and another (estimated) 0.5 C
warming when the anthropogenic aerosols dimming effect is removed?
That could easily be 50 %, which means that even if atmospheric CO2 levels off today, there's
as much
warming in the
pipeline as we've already seen.
More
warming is
in the
pipeline as the climate system slowly responds to the higher CO2 concentrations.
As you said
in your presentation, a substantial fraction of the
warming from greenhouse gases still sits
in the
pipeline or is compensated by aerosols.
Anyway
warming in the
pipeline means even if we stop now there is more to come, and this has been known for at least several IPCC reports and a decade, and that is because the forcing has not all been realized yet
as warming.
Alarmists, embarrassed by the earth's refusal to
warm as their models predict, have concocted all sorts of scary stories about «
warming in the
pipeline,» etc..
If they are going to argue that the vast bulk of the
warming is «
in the
pipeline», it seems like the probably of that being 20 or 30 or 40 is just
as high, because all the extra heat is wound up
in some spring somewhere ready to let loose at some unknown point
in the future.
Since temperatures are already raised and there is more
warming in the
pipeline, who is to say that CO2 will adjust downwards
as opposed to temperatures adjusting upwards.
You're beside yourself seeing the church of carbon sin come falling down like a house of cards from the pause and now you're seeing both your warmist heroes and skeptic enemies who are top shelf climate scientists agree that heat diffused into the deep ocean isn't «heat
in the
pipeline» that will reemerge
as rapid global
warming.
Let's assume that the theoretical 0.26 C atmospheric
warming is correct, but that it went into the upper ocean (top 500 meters), where it is hiding to come back out again
as added
warming some day (
as James E. Hansen has suggested with his «hidden
in the
pipeline» postulation).