We use other supercomputers to attack such complex issues such
as weather prediction and nuclear reactions.
Herve (405) writes then: «In my opinion, IPCC simulations should never become a routine activity (
as weather prediction has)...»
In my opinion, IPCC simulations should never become a routine activity (
as weather prediction has) because every 5 years we basically achieve the same «prediction», but with a shorter lead - time.
Re # 64: Ray Ladbury, The type of prediction being tried in the new paper is certainly an initial values problem, much the same
as weather prediction.
In some other races as well, political forecasting has been as reliable
as weather predictions.
Economic predictions, it should be noted, are just as vulnerable to time
as weather predictions.
Not exact matches
This could be largely due to the
weather predictions,
as meteorologists are expecting wind speeds of 15 miles per hour.
«Current long term
predictions indicate that these extreme
weather variations will continue and situations such
as the current flood events, and disruption caused, underline how adequate maintenance and funding of the network must be a fundamental part of UK transport policy.
Predictions that the numbers would drop off
as the
weather got worse and the seas became colder and rougher have, sadly, been proved wrong.
The Storm
Prediction Center is responsible for forecasting (identifying, describing, and quantifying) the risk of severe
weather caused by severe convective storms (specifically, those producing tornadoes, hail 3/4» or larger, and winds 58 MPH or greater),
as well
as winter and fire
weather.
The IPCC report does suggest that extreme
weather events should be expected
as the world warms but the
prediction is couched in cautious terms and the risk is assessed
as «medium» confidence.
The method combines a model for systems such
as weather or climate with real - world data points to develop
predictions about the future.
Gabriel Vecchi, head of the climate variations and predictability group at NOAA's Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Lab and another author on the paper, says decades of
weather prediction data show that forecasts have improved — and will improve —
as scientists learn more about hurricanes.
Artificial intelligence, which emulates the information processing function of the brain that can quickly execute complex and complicated tasks such
as image recognition and
weather prediction, has attracted growing attention and has already been partly put to practical use.
«But supposing Congress did pass his budget
as - is, yes, it would be devastating to
weather prediction across the board, including hurricanes.»
As NASA prepares for the Journey to Mars,
weather and climate
prediction are key concerns for the surface operations of the human crews.
A new buzz - word is the concept of «seamless
prediction», in which
predictions ranging from nowcasting all the way to future scenarios are provided with a sliding time scale and that doesn't make distinction of incremental types such
as «
weather forecasts» «seasonal
predictions» and «climate scenarios».
While it is unclear how those factors might shift
as the season progresses, the wetter California
weather is favored to hold for the next few weeks —
as well
as the season
as a whole — because of El Niño's influence, Mike Halpert, deputy director of NOAA's Climate
Prediction Center, said in an email.
Making accurate
predictions for specific
weather patterns, such
as the stubborn August jet stream pattern, at a specific point in time is not possible months in advance.
Check the
weather as the date gets closer, but whatever the
prediction, don't forget to bring layers!
In a typically hilarious goodbye video by Commander Zorg, we get to enjoy their
weather predictions of «bleak» and «bleaker still» before finishing off with the all - too - familiar (to those of you
as old
as I am) BBC testcard image, except the only clown on screen is a certain PDM OBE.
This is quite subtle though —
weather forecast models obviously do better if they have initial conditions that are closer to the observations, and one might argue that for particular climate model
predictions that are strongly dependent on the base climatology (such
as for Arctic sea ice) tuning to the climatology will be worthwhile.
Thus for
weather forecasts, a
prediction is described
as skillful if it works better than just assuming that each day is the same
as the last («persistence»).
Specific examples of additional impacts include a reduction in capital equipment acquisitions across the entire lab with computing alone sliding from $ 7 million to $ 3 million, the elimination of NCAR's lidar research facility
as well
as the extra-solar planet program, delays in computer modeling and
prediction efforts for both
weather and climate, reductions in the solar coronal observing program, a reduction in the number of post doctoral appointments, reduction of the societal impacts program, and widespread deferred maintenance and delays in equipment and instrument acquisition and replacement.
Unlike
weather, the if we know the physics, know the inputs and their influences, it seems that we can make pretty good
predictions,
as has already been fairly well demonstrated (albeit not absolutely conclusively).
If the noble politicians of this world kept their promises
as often
as the MetOffice got it's weekly
weather prediction right we'd all die of shock.
Crichton seemed to imply that «
prediction» (such
as that provided by
weather or climate models) is useless in the decision making process.
So in a way, if adding in GHGs helps in
weather prediction, one negative outcome would be that weathermen will be able to say, ``...
as predicted...,» giving viewers a false sense that everything is normal & under control & GW is not happening, since I doubt they will mention that GHGs were used to help them make such good
predictions.
However, 95 % of the time, each model is performing at about the same skill level
as quiescent
weather is not particularly challenging for today's numerical
prediction systems.
The answer,
as always, depends on your location, according to the March, April and May
weather outlook released today (Feb. 15) by the U.S. Climate
Prediction Center.
The GCM models referred to
as climate models are actually
weather models only capable of predicting
weather about two weeks into the future and
as we are aware from our
weather forecasts temperature
predictions...
Namely long term (
as in 10 days)
weather prediction, and more specifically hurricane tracking.
For example, it is impossible for skeptics and alarmists to come together so long
as alarmists pretend —
as you do, Fred, in this very essay — that recent
weather trends in one part of the world lend proof to their theories and
predictions.
As far as weather (and hence climate) predictions are concerned, it is difficult to achieve better results than the persistence prediction in the short te
As far
as weather (and hence climate) predictions are concerned, it is difficult to achieve better results than the persistence prediction in the short te
as weather (and hence climate)
predictions are concerned, it is difficult to achieve better results than the persistence
prediction in the short term
Accurate
weather prediction, difficult
as it is, is trivial by comparison.
Type 3 dynamic downscaling takes lateral boundary conditions from a global model
prediction forced by specified real world surface boundary conditions, such
as for seasonal
weather predictions based on observed sea surface temperatures, but the initial observed atmospheric conditions in the global model are forgotten.
In my experience this is certainly the case if you talk about the simulations
as predictions rather than projections — the climate models are not predicting what the
weather will be on the 5th of May 2051 — they are providing projections of the climate based on emission scenarios and initial conditions.
The 2001 Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Report that governments accept
as certain
predictions of future
weather says, «In climate research and modeling, we should recognize that we are dealing with a coupled non-linear chaotic system, and therefore that the long - term
prediction of future climate states is not possible.»
In his book
Weather Forecasting: The Country Way, farmer / author Robin Page wrote, «Yet it is strange to record that
as the
weather forecasting service has grown in size and expense, so it's
predictions seem to have become more inaccurate.»
'' Moreover, recent conditions are entirely consistent with the best scientific
predictions:
as the world warms so the
weather becomes wilder [no evidence — Ed], with big consequences for people's health and well - being.»
«The CCR - II report correctly explains that most of the reports on global warming and its impacts on sea - level rise, ice melts, glacial retreats, impact on crop production, extreme
weather events, rainfall changes, etc. have not properly considered factors such
as physical impacts of human activities, natural variability in climate, lopsided models used in the
prediction of production estimates, etc..
1) Show us the past literature where clear discernible, unambiguous
predictions about the trajectory of all important climate variables such
as «global temperature», «global sea level», «global rain fall», «global severe
weather events» and other key «global climate» parameters were made.
But such
predictions are proving
as elusive
as the perfect
weather forecast.
I agree gbaikie that models are not appropriate for
prediction but could assist in sorting out natural variability
as distinct from anthropic influences on
weather and climate.
As these models through research and development, become more skilled at higher and higher resolution and gain the capability of replicating increasingly complex
weather phenomena, the public, through the
predictions of the National
Weather Service, will be better served through more precise
weather predictions for places and times where you are.
It does apply to climate
predictions as well
as long term
weather predictions.
Efforts by the global numerical
weather prediction centers to produce global reanalyses such
as the European Copernicus effort is probably the best way forward for the most recent decades.
It is like when Judith focuses on the lack of money for stabilizing and modernizing our capacity for longer - term
weather prediction — by pointing to the money spent on studying climate change —
as if that were the problem.
Gcm can not resolve at mesoscale levels (which is the scale length of
weather systems) which makes
prediction both difficult and problematic
as when the coarse grain resolution is enhanced we move beyond the physical laws per se.
Now; there were other scientist whom were involved in the study of the climate (
weather, space, oceans, sun, etc, etc.) and articles written in science magazines
as well, that were hinting at a return to an ice age...
predictions if you will.