Banks and Insurance companies appear to have been very rational in their portfolio management of Treasury holdings over time, cutting back
as yield levels fell over multi-decade periods.
Perceptually, households have decreased their direct ownership of Treasuries
as yield levels have fallen over the decades.
Not exact matches
NEW YORK, April 23 - The U.S. dollar rallied to a four - month high on Monday
as the 10 - year Treasury
yield's climb toward the psychologically important 3 percent
level spurred buying of the greenback, leaving the euro and yen lower.
Although Spain's borrowing costs have fallen over the past two months on the back of the ECB's new rescue plan, the Spanish 10 - year
yield is still hovering just below 6 percent - a
level that has been seen
as unsustainable since the crisis escalated in 2011.
U.S. two - year Treasury
yields reached 2.453 percent on Friday, the highest
level since September 2008
as the two - year's spread versus two - year German Bunds grew to 302 basis points, the widest in more than three decades.
During a webcast presenting his 2017 outlook, Gundlach, the founder of DoubleLine Capital, said certain «second - tier» managers were focusing on 2.6 %
as an important
level for the 10 - year Treasury
yield — a threshold beyond which the bull market in bonds would end.
Meanwhile government bond
yields, a reliable barometer of market fear, are falling to record low
levels as investors engage in a panicked hunt for risk - free assets.
RATES STILL LOW: Even
as concerns about rising bond
yields and interest rates spook some investors, bulls are quick to mention that rates are rising off extremely low
levels.
NEW YORK, Feb 5 - The dollar rose against a basket of currencies on Monday
as the U.S. bond market selloff
levelled off after the 10 - year
yield hit a four - year peak on worries that the Federal Reserve might raise interest rates faster to counter signs of wage pressure.
Ultimately, he sees the S&P 500 in 2018 ending 9 percent higher than current
levels as long
as the 10 - year Treasury
yield stays below 3 percent.
Bonds tumbled
as upbeat consumer spending data lowered demand for U.S. debt, pushing the two - year note
yield to its highest
level since 2011.
Bonds flipped between negative and positive territory
as concerns about economic growth pushed the 10 - year note
yield to lowest
level since April.
Certainly, it offers an attractive
level for longer - term investors such
as pension and insurance funds to lock in a relatively decent
yield, and will tempt some portfolio managers to buy bonds rather than equities.
The
yield on 10 - year U.S. notes took a stab at the psychologically important 3 %
level before pulling back on Monday
as strengthening inflation prospects added to expectations of a more hawkish approach from the Federal Reserve.
In fact, credit spreads in many markets are trading at the lowest
levels as a percentage of their overall
yield in a decade (see chart below).
Long - dated Treasury
yields early Thursday trade at the highest
level in nearly a month, but shorter maturities saw a slight pullback in rates,
as inflation expectations rose
Short - dated Treasury debt now provides an attractive real return
as yields now stand firmly above realized and target
levels of inflation.
U.S. stock futures were mixed this morning
as the
yield on the 10 - year Treasury hit new 16 - month highs, on the verge of exceeding the psychologically key
level of 3 percent.
Therefore, at current
levels the maximum price return for UST 10 yr is 18 % calculated
as follows: the
yield declines from 2.91 % to 0 % and the price rises by 2.91 x 9 yr duration or 26.19 %.
The U.S. 10 - year Treasury
yield reached nearly 2.65 %, the highest
level since 2014,
as investors shunned bonds amid expectations that the economy and inflation will pick up.
U.S. rates hit super-low
levels,
as investors loaded up on Treasurys in the face of lower and negative
yields in Europe and Japan, and if long - end rates rise in those regions, investors could dump Treasurys.
But even
as the market adjusts to the next
level of
yields, there will be more government debt for the Treasury market to deal with.
Money fund management fees declined considerably
as interest rates fell to near - zero
levels, apparently
as fund managers worked to preserve a non-negative
yield for their investors.
As bond investors find their preferred
yield levels, some equity volatility may persist.
As global bond
yields fall to ever - lower
levels, BlackRock Global Chief Investment Strategist Richard Turnill explores the reason for the downward trend.
Junk - bond ETFs rallied on Wednesday,
as markets breathed relief that the «fiscal cliff» is no longer a concern and
as a result, bond
yields are under 6 percent for the first time ever, and junk ETF share prices hit
levels not seen in years in some cases, according to an article on ETF Trends.
This was a function of the low
level of market
yields,
as well
as the low
level of volatility and
yield movements.
Precious and Industrial Metals Inflation concerns, geopolitical tensions and interest - rate
levels, especially real
yields, contributed to a 1.7 % rise in the spot price of gold (to US$ 1,325 per troy ounce),
as did swings in the US dollar.1 Gold prices traded within the US$ 1,305 — 1,360 range throughout the period, reached 18 - month highs in March and capped their third straight quarterly gain, a feat not seen since 2011.1 Haven demand was a key support
as exchange - traded gold holdings of 2,269 metric tons (mt) neared a five - year high.1 The Fed is widely expected to boost borrowing costs, and investors have been carefully watching the central bank's statements to see whether it targets more rate increases in 2018 than previously projected.
As you can see the, divergence between the S&P 500 and the high
yield bond market has reached an absurd
level.
We have viewed a 10 - year Treasury
yield range of 3.50 - 4.00 %
as a more challenging
level for equity headwinds than a market environment with 3.00 % 10 - year Treasury
yields.
The 10 - year US bond
yield breaking through the 3 per cent danger
level worries India,
as it does every emerging market.
Structural factors such
as aging populations, poor productivity growth and high debt
levels mean historically low government bond
yields are likely here to stay.
Required
yield is the minimum acceptable return that investors demand
as compensation for accepting a given
level of risk.
Toronto - Dominion Bank has lifted its posted rate for five - year fixed mortgages by 45 basis points to 5.59 percent
as government bond
yields touched their highest
levels since 2011 this week.
The Great Plains and the Midwestern part of the United States have experienced extremely cold temperatures during the early spring
as that is causing some concerns on crop
yields as I do think wheat prices could test the $ 5
level possibly in next week's trade.
Both valuations and consumer sentiment may be at high
levels, but with stable real
yields, rising productivity and «normalised» valuations, the equity outlook is not necessarily negative —
as long
as economic growth continues.
However, they remain close to the low
level prevailing before the Asian crisis, reflecting the generally benign environment for most emerging markets
as well
as investor appetite for higher
yields than currently prevail in industrial countries.
With interest rates on low - risk investments falling to low
levels in many countries, investors have sought to maintain
yields by moving into higher - risk assets such
as corporate debt and emerging market debt.
Tuesday April 24: Five things the markets are talking about U.S dollar bulls seem to have finally found some much needed support from interest rates
as U.S bond
yields climb toward
levels unseen in nearly four - years.
Past this
level, I consider the investment
as a high dividend
yield stocks and I would rather stay away from it.
Putting aside the performance of bonds during the bear market beginning in 1980 (both because the starting
yields on Treasuries were so high but also because the bear market was relatively mild
as the decline began from relatively low
levels of valuation), what's interesting about the above chart is how dependably bonds protected a portfolio during equity bear markets.
Yields moved lower
as the
yield - to - worst of the S&P / BGCantor Current 10 Year U.S. Treasury Bond Index is now at a 2.49 % which brings it back down to
level Read more -LSB-...]
While the prospect of higher interest rates will keep investors on edge, it's not like we're returning to double - digit
levels or the Fed is moving its terminal rate.So even the uptick in ten - year
yields to 3 % or even 3.25 % is unlikely to kill the equity market rally
as the benefits from fiscal stimulus should continue to feed through the markets.
But until the market takes out the significant 108.15
level I continue to view the current move
as little more than a pre FOMC meeting squeeze driven by
yields and positioning and believe there will be substantial resistance between 107.50 - 108
levels.
The current valuation of the S&P 500 is lofty by almost any measure, both for the aggregate market
as well
as the median stock: (1) The P / E ratio; (2) the current P / E expansion cycle; (3) EV / Sales; (4) EV / EBITDA; (5) Free Cash Flow
yield; (6) Price / Book
as well
as the ROE and P / B relationship; and compared with the
levels of (6) inflation; (7) nominal 10 - year Treasury
yields; and (8) real interest rates.
Since 2010, the
level of the 10 - year Treasury
yield has explained approximately 45 % of the variation in the relative valuation — defined
as the valuation of the sector versus the broader market — for the utilities sector.
Toronto — Dominion Bank has lifted its posted rate for five - year fixed mortgages by 45 basis points to 5.59 %
as government bond
yields hit their highest
levels since 2011.
As many fixed income investors have discovered in the low interest rate environment of the past several years, opportunities to achieve better
levels of income exist, but thoughtful consideration of the potentially higher risks associated with the hunt for better
yield is essential.
Others, such
as the tendency for investors to become increasingly eager to chase high
yields as the general
level of interest rates falls, suggest a need for caution.
The
level of
yields — around 4 1/4 per cent at present — looks low not only on historical comparisons but also relative to normal benchmarks such
as the growth rate of nominal GDP, which in the US is currently around 6 per cent (Graph 16).