It shows Nick Clegg holding on to his seat by a margin of seven points over Labour when respondents are
asked a voting intention question that includes the names of the candidates standing.
As in 2011, Lord Ashcroft has
asked voting intention twice in the poll, first asking a standard voting intention question, then asking people to think specifically about their own seat and asking how they would vote there.
First it asked people their voting intention using the standard question, THEN
it asked them their voting intention again saying «thinking about your own constituency and the parties and the candidates who are likely to stand there, which party's candidate do you think you will vote for in your own constituency at the next general election?»
Both Ashcroft and ComRes
asked a voting intention question that prompted people to think about their own constituency, candidates and MP to try and get at the personal and tactical voting that Lib Dem MPs are so reliant upon.
YouGov did the fieldwork for two academic election surveys (the British Election Study and the SCMS) as well as their daily polling, and all three used different question ordering (daily polling
asked voting intention first, SCMS after a couple of questions, the BES after a bank of questions on important issues, which party is more trusted and party leaders) so will allow testing of the effect of «priming questions».
ICM also
asked a voting intention question asking how people would vote assuming that Gordon Brown was Labour leader — like YouGov's poll earlier this week this showed Labour doing worse under Brown than under Blair; with Brown as leader voting intention would be CON 40 %, LAB 37 %, LD 18 %.
For example, when pollsters fail to prompt by party names when
asking voting intention, the Lib Dem vote share falls by several percentage points.
The Lib Dems did not
ask voting intention first, instead they asked people to rate Lynne Featherstone first.
YouGov has been
asking voting intention in the AV referendum regularly since June 2010.
Not exact matches
The briefing was smoked out by an «Email your MP» campaign launched by the People's Pledge just 48 hours beforehand, as Labour MPs then contacted party headquarters to
ask how they should respond to questions from constituents about their
voting intentions on July 5.
We shall then review the way we
ask our general election
voting intention question.
However, I'm always slightly wary of constituency polls in Liberal Democrat held seats — the effect of incumbency and tactical
voting is far higher for Lib Dem MPs, and when you
ask a generic
voting intention I think many people give their national preference, rather than how they would actually
vote in their own constituency.
Asked by Louis is he would step aside as leader if it were for the good of the conference (this has long been viewed as a foregone conclusion, since Klein has made it quite clear he has no
intention of
voting for Sampson to retain his spot), Sampson replied:
The first is that normal
voting intention questions do not include prompting by the party leaders names, so realistically you should only compare the results of a question
asking «how would you
vote with Milliband in charge» with one saying «how would you
vote with Brown in charge».
There is a Populus poll in The Times tomorrow which does not appear to cover
voting intention, but rather
asks the public what they expect they outcome of the next election to be.
Polls
asking referendum
voting intention including the wording of the proposed referendum.
I am a member of You Gov and Populus and I can tell you I was rarely
asked my opinion about
voting intentions during the last election campaign.
The polling company Tamedia
asked 20,000 people about their
voting intentions on the next referendum day (which includes 3 other issues along with basic income).
Interestingly, when
asked how unlikely people were to change their
voting intentions, Scots came out as the most unlikely at 44 % compared to a nationwide average of 34 %.
Lord Ashcroft used the two stage
voting intention question for the constituency poll, first
asking people a generic
voting intention question and then
asking people to consider their own constituency and the candidates likely to stand there in an attempt to squeeze out tactical or incumbency effects.
This is not necessarily a bad thing — certainly I have grave doubts about polls done in Lib Dem constituencies that just
ask a standard
voting intention question.
Our new poll also
asked once again about
voting intentions for the National Assembly.
[166] Morris claimed that telephone polls that immediately
asked for
voting intentions tended to get a high «Don't know» or anti-government reaction, whereas longer telephone conversations conducted by private polls that collected other information such as views on the leaders» performances placed voters in a much better mode to give their true
voting intentions.
The day after Cuomo made his
intentions perfectly clear by
asking his email list to
vote for him on his fake Women's Equality Party line, he referred to WFP as the «Working Short People» party and «fringe.»
ICM also
asked about
voting intentions in the European elections, for the first time since February.
Of course — the same caveats that I used to attach to polls
asking hypothetical questions about
voting intention under potential Tory leaders apply to questions about potential Labour leaders as well — it may be a long time until we know what effect a Gordon Brown leadership would really have on Labour support.
One thing I missed from the ICM poll last night, they
asked an AV
voting intention question and found the contest neck and neck.
Possible differing approaches to polling the European election shouldn't make a difference, since Westminster
voting intentions were
asked first.
YouGov also
asked how people would
vote in a re-run between Boris and Ken — 49 % would
vote Boris, 33 % Ken (respondents were not offered the chance of
voting for other candidates, so this was not a genuine
voting intention polls by any means, but since the London electoral system does redistribute
votes between the top two candidates it offers a rough guide).
In a normal
voting intention question in Con - v - LD seats the Lib Dems are in third place on 18 %,
asked using the constituency specific wording they are on 31 %.
As well as the
voting intention Populus also
asked about various Parliamentary reforms.
More relevant are the hypothetical
voting intention questions — respondents were
asked how they would
vote if Gordon Brown were leader of the Labour party, Charlie Kennedy leader of the Liberal Democrats and either David Cameron or David Davis were leader of the Tory Party.
As far as I can recall the last proper ComRes poll of London
voting intentions was in March (there was one that
asked which candidate people were inclined to support in September, but it was a small sample and wasn't really comparable), and showed Ken very narrowly ahead, so this suggests a move towards Boris though, given the difference in the question now that other candidates are known, I wouldn't read too much into that.
Like the Sunday Telegraph poll, ICM's Guardian poll also
asked a theoretical
voting intention poll with Gordon Brown as Labour leader.
If the leaders remain as they are now at the next election (which YouGov
ask as a control question) people's
voting intentions would be CON 34, LAB 41, LDEM 9 (when
asked this way it consistently shows a slightly smaller Labour lead than usual — probably the effect of mentioning Ed Miliband in the question).
This is likely to be because best Prime Minister questions are strongly influenced by party allegiance, and the questions seem to have been
asked as part of a standard ICM omnibus poll, which doesn't weight by past
vote unless there are
voting intention questions.
Using a split sample they
asked three questions — one was a normal
voting intention question.
Since Cameron became leader, every time a hypothetical poll about
voting intention with Gordon Brown as leader has been
asked, it has shown either the parties neck and neck or a Tory lead, and the majority have shown Brown doing worse than Blair.
ICM
asked voters how settled they were in their current
voting intention to establish how far voters will drift back towards their traditional affiliations and found a narrow majority of 51 % saying they were now «very certain» that their mind was made up.
Asked who they would like to see reach the final round of
voting, 71 % of members said David Cameron and, on present
voting intentions, he would obliterate Davis or Clarke in the final round.
Unlike many other polls
asking about
voting intention in the referendum YouGov's tracker on the Alternative
Vote referendum starts with text briefly summarising what First Past the Post and Alternative
Vote actually are.
There was no
voting intention question, but
asked how they would lean if Gordon Brown was Labour leader and each of the three candidates were Tory leader Cameron came out best, with 50 % saying they would lean towards the Tories, compared to 43 % with Davis and 41 % with Clarke.
One of the surveys being connducted by telephone as recently as Sunday, and subsequently leaked on the internet,
asked 17 questions about the Liberal Democrats and
asked people to rate a series of statements according to how likely they were to affect their
voting intentions.
However a lot has been made of the fact that while both polls had an effort to take account of people's personal and tactical
voting behaviour in their own constituency, they did so in different ways — Ashcroft
asks a two stage question,
asking people their national preference and then how they will
vote thinking about the candidates and parties in their own constituency; ICM
asked people the
voting intention question including the names of the candidates standing in Sheffield Hallam.
Spurred on by Vancouver's announced
intention last fall to
ask for a membership
vote at its March AGM, the provincial task force brought forward a number of initiatives for industry reform.