Many investors are questioning whether Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies are the latest
asset bubble at risk of bursting.
Not exact matches
Japan suffered an
asset price
bubble at the end of the 1980s and experienced a period that is referred to as «the lost two decades».
They had never really before tried to limit the negative effects of low interest rates —
asset - price
bubbles — while
at the same time as applying a heavy dose of monetary stimulus.
The chart below from Shane Oliver, chief economist and chief investment officer
at AMP Capital, puts Bitcoin in historic perspective with other major
asset bubbles.
In 2001, after the
bubble burst, his father, Charles Marleau Sr. (a former vice-president
at BMO and National Bank, and founder of a now defunct
asset management firm), suggested young Charles start a money - management business.
«I define a
bubble as something where
assets have prices that can not be justified with any reasonable assumption,» says Jay Ritter, a professor of finance
at the University of Florida's Warrington College of Business Administration who studies valuation and IPOs.
Bubble - type prosperity is based on debt - leveraged
asset - price gains
at the expense of the economy
at large.
Today's biggest
bubble in safe
assets, however, is the one in Treasury bonds, which is a direct consequence of the Fed's policy of holding interest rates down
at abnormally low levels.
The Fed is in a «liquidity trap» which requires rates to stay
at emergency levels and that fuels the
bubbles in equities, Commercial and Residential Real Estate and financier
assets.
But I guess it makes sense because after the NASDAQ
bubble burst in March 2000, real estate started taking off partly because the Fed aggressively lowered interest rates, and partly because equity investors looked
at hard
assets to park their money.
If this is true, by the way, it means that attempts
at implementing liberalizing reforms are successful mainly during periods of great global liquidity, and this might have implications for China, especially if over the next few years global central banks begin to withdraw the huge liquidity injections that have underpinned
asset bubbles around the world.
The longer the Fed leaves its target rate
at zero, the greater the chance of
asset price
bubbles — and eventual crashes.
If policy makers were confident that
asset markets were
at bubble level what is the right response?
Aside from acceptable «basis» risk between the stocks we hold long and the indices we use to hedge, and perhaps 1 % of
assets in option time - premium
at any given time as a result of staggering our strikes to provide a stronger defense, we don't consider various speculative
bubbles as threats to our own returns.
While there has been a noticeable shift among family offices toward real estate following the
bubble — as many took advantage of the troubled real estate market post-crash and scooped up valuable
assets at a discount to pre-recession valuations — this allocation is still remarkable and outside the typical family portfolio composition reported in our survey.
At this point, reliance on a diversified
bubble of
assets to further significantly inflate to produce yield pulls the curtain back on the diversification scam.
According to Asgeir Jonsson, an economist
at Reykjavik - based
asset manager Gamma, «If the development continues without interference, this will lead to a property
bubble within the next two years» and «There's a greater risk of an
asset bubble being created in an economy that is closed off behind capital controls.»
The Fed heads dating back to
at least Alan Greenspan always remark that it's impossible to know whether or not an
asset bubble is occurring until after it pops.
Richard: Great insight as always, and last time we talked about the commercial real estate
bubble and we thought today we'd do a special focus on the millennial generation and how financial repression through repressed interest rates and quantitative easing has resulted in
asset bubbles that ultimately have affected the millennial generation in terms of their values, how they look
at the economy and life and the way they're conducting themselves in the economy: what they're facing in terms of the housing market and the job situation.
Last time we talked about the commercial real estate
bubble and we thought today we'd do a special focus on the millennial generation and how financial repression through repressed interest rates and quantitative easing has resulted in
asset bubbles that ultimately have affected the millennial generation in terms of their values, how they look
at the economy and life and the way they're conducting themselves in the economy: what they're facing in terms of the housing market and the job situation.
To illustrate this, just take a look
at how our economy has changed since financial institutions inflated
asset prices in the housing market until the
bubble burst in 2007.
Monetary policy since the Great Depression that started in 1929 has aimed
at re-inflating the economy after downturns, fueling the post-2001 financial
bubble and, since 2008, Quantitative Easing to provide banks with liquidity to support
asset prices.
«The psychology of a
bubble can be incredibly painful for
asset managers with careers
at stake, according to Grantham.
While most people agree that
asset bubbles are a real phenomenon, they don't always agree on whether a specified
asset bubble exists
at a given time.
Let's take a look
at some of the most common economic perspectives on the causes of
asset bubbles.
[1] Denmark's overleveraged banking system, with banking
assets as a percentage of GDP
at 454 % versus the U.S.'s 90 %, will experience unimaginable pain when the country's housing
bubble deflates in earnest.
Launched while Japan was in a recession following the 1991 collapse of the Japanese
asset price
bubble, this generation Taurus was exported to Japan in limited numbers, and sold
at Japanese auto dealerships called Autorama (a joint venture with Mazda), where the sedan and wagon versions with right - hand driving positions until 1997.
Think of it this way:
at the end of a
bubble, someone looks
at buying an
asset, and concludes that it is not worth buying because of the likely stream of payments he will have to make after the initial purchase.
This is an analysis metric that compares a company's share price with its «book value» — essentially, its
assets minus its liabilities — and, as you can see, it is now significantly higher than it was
at the peak of the dotcom
bubble in early 2000.
Montier, member of the
asset allocation team
at the Boston - based
asset manager GMO, is convinced that the US stock market is in
bubble territory.
In dealing with the continued weak economy, our leaders are so determined not to repeat the perceived mistakes of the 1930s that they are risking policies with possibly far worse consequences designed by the same people
at the Fed who ran policy with the short term view that
asset bubbles don't matter because the fallout can be managed after they pop.
the European periphery is a
bubble («The Euro crisis is not over... the European economies are not going to change for the better for years to come despite all the cheating and breaking of laws»), Value investors need to venture to Russia («when you look
at today's opportunity set, you're left with a set of
assets where nothing looks attractive from a valuation point of view») or buy gold mining stocks -LRB-» The down cycle could be much bigger than anybody believes if the market realizes that all the actions taken in recent years do not work.»)
Yes, I agree it's not genuine growth, it is an
asset bubble etc etc, doesn't help much though when you look
at poor returns
at the end of a year and realise that the doom - and - gloom picture was being wilfully ignored by those who rode the indices (perhaps in blissful ignorance) to huge profits while other saps spend time arguing about getting the economics dead right, and end up on the moral high ground but no returns to show for it.
That could mean we have a real interest rate
bubble, but it also could mean that lots of other
assets are undervalued,
at least if the liquidity effect defeats the higher real interest rate effect of moving out of Treasuries.
But, barring any drastic moves in the final trading days of 2015, the most widely held classes of
assets, including stocks and bonds across the globe, were basically flat... While that may be disappointing news for people who hoped to see big returns from
at least some portion of their portfolio, it is excellent news for anyone who wants to see a steady global economic expansion without new
bubbles and all the volatility that can bring.
The Japanese
asset bubble of the 1980s burst in late 1989 and a quarter century later, the Nikkei is still
at only half the level it was.
How to Spot a Market
Bubble The bursting of two major
asset bubbles — in home prices in recent years and Internet stocks
at the turn of the century — has trained investors to scan the horizon for signs of where the next one might form.
Many of the «
assets» on public companies» books
at that time were real estate
bubble - related.
We are in a
BUBBLE of perceived «SAFE» Haven
assets (think 30 years bonds
at sub - 2.5 % or two year bonds
at 0.003 %)
Those who lowered their stock allocations when the long - term value proposition was poor (the most likely long - term return on stocks was a negative number
at the top of the
bubble) have a lot more in the way of
assets to invest in stocks now that they again offer a reasonable long - term value proposition.
Mark has not only been a key ally of Carbon Tracker since its inception, attending many of our early strategy sessions, he has also played an international role in extending our thinking around «stranded
assets» and the «carbon
bubble» whilst
at Barclays.
At the same the government funded subsidies for low income earners that further fueled the
asset bubble in a self - sustaining cycle possible due to rising house prices.
Long term, directionally, it is a multitrillion - dollar
asset — I don't know how long it takes to get there.We've seen the
bubble term thrown around and it's just not the right way to look
at this.
According to the update, while bitcoin was uncorrelated to other
asset prices
at year - end 2017 during the rally, ever since the
bubble has begun to «deflate» in the new year it's more closely correlated with other risk
assets such as stocks.
Economic
bubbles are formed when
assets are being traded
at prices that are significantly more than their intrinsic values.
Although many mainstream analysts continue to deride bitcoin as a
bubble, Novogratz — who now says that as much as 30 % of his net worth is invested in crypto
assets — believes that the markets are still far too small to be considered a repeat of the dotcom
bubble that occurred
at the turn of the millennium.