If we can accurately answer the question of what each type of
asset class returns over the long term, this may help us make a start on determining where the best returns from our money will come.
Not exact matches
It's no secret that the venture capital industry, as an
asset class, has seen spectacularly mediocre
returns over the last 10 years or so.
And Elliott, whose 13.4 % annual rate of
return over its four - decade history is unmatched among hedge funds, has also outperformed at a time when that
asset class has woefully lagged the market.
«Stocks certainly look more attractive than bonds, but the case for stocks versus other
asset classes is less clear... «So while
returns may compress from the outsized gains we have seen
over the last several years, we remain constructive on equities.
There is strong reason to expect the S&P 500 to underperform the 2.4 % total
return available on Treasury debt
over the coming decade, though both
asset classes are so richly valued that substantial volatility and interim losses should be expected in both.
HCI believes farmland is a real
return asset class as it has historically been effective in protecting capital from inflation while generating an attractive income stream that grows
over time.
We believe the venture
asset class will produce outsized
returns over the next 5 - 10 years.
«
Over the last few months, sentiment about fixed income has flipped dramatically: from a favored investment destination that is deemed to benefit from exceptional support from central banks, to an
asset class experiencing large outflows, negative
returns and reduced standing as an anchor of a well - diversified
asset allocation.»
Do value strategy
returns vary exploitably
over time and across
asset classes?
«Recent
returns over the last several years have outpaced underlying fundamentals across nearly all
asset classes»
And we see earnings and dividend growth offsetting a modest
return drag from multiple contraction
over the medium term, making equities attractive relative to other
asset classes.
Reflecting on this financial year just past, it may be helpful to look at the
returns of the major
asset classes over this year and then for the last 20.
If markets are efficient, why do some
asset classes end up being priced to deliver such large excess
returns over others?
Sure, there will be years here and there when the
return on equities is negative, but
over the long run, equities have dominated other
asset classes and we see no reason for that to change.
That's because the standard deviation of
returns changes
over time, as does the correlation between
asset classes.
Here's the
return of various
asset classes and how the average investor has fared
over the last 20 years (source):
The resemblance to the poster that hung in your high - school chemistry
class is only superficial: this table simply presents the
returns of various
asset classes ordered from highest to lowest
over a period of several years.
History shows stocks have generated the best
returns of any
asset class over the long run within North America — but they are volatile in the short run and investors who track things too closely are more likely to be frightened out of their positions prematurely.
The Capstone strategy seeks to generate absolute
returns over the long term in the attractive
asset class of smaller under - researched companies by building portfolios that have lower than market levels of debt, higher than market levels of profitability, and are trading at a discount to their intrinsic value.
Have a look at this periodic table of investment
returns, which shows the best and worst performing
asset classes over the last decade.
There is no evidence that tactical
asset allocation — that is, moving in and out of
asset classes in an attempt to enhance
returns — is an effective strategy
over the long term.
For example, Canadian and U.S. stocks are unlikely to have the exact same long - term rate of
return, but
over the last four decades they were pretty close, so rebalancing between these two
asset classes should not cause a significant drag
over time.
And we see earnings and dividend growth offsetting a modest
return drag from multiple contraction
over the medium term, making equities attractive relative to other
asset classes.
In October 2015, GMO estimated that EM stocks (4.0 % real
return) would be the highest
returning asset class over the next 5 - 7 years, EM bonds (2.2 %) would be second.
We now see lower potential
returns ahead for many
asset classes over the next five years, given moderate economic growth and stretched valuations.
The bars in the chart below show our annual
return assumptions for selected
asset classes over the next five years, while the dots show our expectations of volatility.
The three main
asset classes - equities, fixed - income, and cash and equivalents - have different levels of risk and
return, so each will behave differently
over time.
GMO's latest
asset class projections have the broad US market with negative real
returns over the next seven years.
Over the last 3 years the S&P 500 has been the best performer of all the
asset classes, as shown in the table of
returns at https://paulmerriman.com/decade-
returns/.
4) Pretend that
asset classes that have had great
returns over short periods of time will necessarily outperform far into the future.
Stocks,
over the long term, offer the most consistent and reliable
returns of any
asset class.
Over 99 % of Mutual Series (
Class A shares)
assets were in funds ranked in the top two quartiles of their respective Lipper peer groups for total
return for the one -, three -, five - and 10 - year periods ended May 31, 2009.1
One historical record of the impact of taxes on
returns in Australia is the annual Russell Investments / Australian Securities Exchange (ASX) Long - term Investing Report, which measures pre - and post-tax
returns for various
asset classes over 20 - year periods.
The information is intended to show the effects on risk and
returns of different
asset allocations
over time based on hypothetical combinations of the benchmark indexes that correspond to the relevant
asset class.
The fund was created with input from clients and designed to address near - term market need for higher yielding investment
returns over more traditional
asset classes.
My point is simply that it's very likely that if you are moving money in and out of stocks based on volatility, you're much less likely to get the full market
return over the long term, and might be better off putting more weight in
asset classes with lower volatility.
The
asset class may not deliver the additional 100 %
return over the next four years consistent with the average historical experience, but it's by no means impossible.
For completeness my real
return target of 4 % was set based on historical
returns of all my
asset classes over long periods combined with expected
asset allocations.
But with the stock selection that you're using, make sure that you understand risk and expected a
return and use the right
asset classes to kind of boost your
return over the long term.
Among all the
asset classes, equities historically provide investors with the highest
returns over the long - term, but stocks also incur the highest risk (look at the stock markets now).
An investment in the fund could lose money
over short, intermediate, or even long periods of time because the fund allocates its
assets worldwide across different
asset classes and investments with specific risk and
return characteristics.
Since different
asset classes react to changing market conditions in different ways, appropriate
asset allocation can help us maintain confidence through economic ups and downs and even increase one's potential for better
returns over time.
Market volatility
returned with a vengeance
over the last three months, with most
asset classes providing low to negative
returns.
The new Target Date recommendation takes more risk by investing in the more volatile small - cap - value and emerging markets
asset classes early on, but history suggests that leads to significantly higher
returns over a 20 to 40 year time frame which is what a young investor has ahead of them.
The biggest drawback that money market funds pose is simply that they offer very low
returns compared to equities or other
asset classes over time.
Chart 1 below illustrates the volatility of the two
asset classes by tracking the total
return index levels of both indices
over the course of 2015.
In the credit markets, U.S. municipal bonds tracked in the S&P Municipal Bond Index have
returned over 1.5 % in June as the diversity, yield, historical stability and quality of the municipal bond market has made it a «risk off» destination
asset class.
In every
asset class over every time period, the cheapest quintile produced higher total
returns than the most expensive quintile.»
Based on
returns for the
asset class (not the funds), a Couch Potato that used the total bond market index would have earned at a compound annual rate of 9.27 percent
over the last 30 years while one that used inflation - protected bonds would have earned at a compound rate of 9.24 percent.
After taking
over the reins in 1987, David Swensen, the chief investment officer of Yale Endowment, moved aggressively into non-traditional and often illiquid
asset classes like foreign equity, absolute
return, real
assets and private equity.