And their CEO's repeatedly told their stockholders that there was no proof of carbon - driven climate change even as their contractors were building platforms for off - shore drilling that
assumed sea level increases up to 20 ″ over the 25 year life of said platforms.
Not exact matches
Sea -
level rise is expressed relative to 2006, and projections
assume that emissions will continue to
increase unabated (IPCC scenario RCP8.5).
«If we
assume an optimistic scenario for greenhouse gas emissions — the RCP 2.6 scenario, [see Fact Box] which would result in a warming of about two degrees Celsius — then we can expect an
increase in
sea level similar to what we see in this video,» says climate modeller Martin Stendel from the Danish Meteorological Institute, Copenhagen.
This approximation (very) closely tracks
sea -
level rise from 1880 to 2000 by
assuming that the rate at which height
increases is a strict linear function of the temperature with a straight averaging of the calculated rate for a period from 15 years before to the point in time for which height is being calculated (i.e., the embedding period).
Even if we incorrectly
assumed that CO2 caused the entire 1 - foot rise in
sea level, if we remove that
sea level increase Sandy would have still flooded New York's subways.
From this, the authors conclude that «rapid
sea level rise may begin sooner than is generally
assumed,» and also that a temperature
increase of two degrees Celsius would put the world well beyond «danger.»
Assuming we still don't reform our ways, the 40 years after 2040 could then see another sharp 2 degree
increase in temperatures — to 4 degrees Celsius — and another dramatic surge in
sea level, culminating in a rise of 2 feet averaged across the globe, or more if we're unlucky.
Bolin & Eriksson's «buffer» factor would give about 10 times higher CO2 concentration in air vs.
sea water at about 0.0003 atmospheres CO2 partial pressure,
increasing dramatically to an air / water CO2 partition coefficient of about 50:1 at a CO2 partial pressure of about 0.003 atmospheres (10 times the
assumed pre-industrial
level; Bacastow & Keeling, 1973; see Section 7 below for more on the «buffer» factor).
If we
assume the warmist notion that global land ice is shrinking AND dO is
increasing during the pause, then we should see
sea level rising at an accelerating rate.
«This H2O negative - feedback effect on CO2 is ignored in models that
assume that warm moist air does not rise and form sunlight - reflecting clouds, but remains as humid air near
sea level, absorbing infrared radiation from the sun, and approximately doubling the temperature rises predicted from atmospheric CO2
increases.
Gornitz et al. (1997) estimate that ground water is mined at a rate that has been
increasing in time, currently equivalent to 0.2 to 1.0 mm / yr of
sea level, but they
assume that much of this infiltrates back into aquifers so the contribution to
sea level rise is only 0.1 to 0.4 mm / yr.
A tiny
increase in
sea level would still mean a lot of extra heat has gone into the ocean
assuming the rise was only from thermal expansion.
According to that report, although a
sea level rise of 1.6 feet or more would negatively affect large portions of the City, the «worst - case scenario» for
sea level rise projects a 1.6 foot
increase to be reached in 2047
assuming no mitigation or adaptation efforts... Furthermore, even
assuming a 2 - foot
sea level rise, only 0.1 square miles of land in the City that isn't potentially protected by levees or other flood control structures is below two feet of elevation.»
Mitigation scenarios (also known as climate intervention or climate policy scenarios) are defined in the TAR (Morita et al., 2001), as scenarios that «(1) include explicit policies and / or measures, the primary goal of which is to reduce GHG emissions (e.g., carbon taxes) and / or (2) mention no climate policies and / or measures, but
assume temporal changes in GHG emission sources or drivers required to achieve particular climate targets (e.g., GHG emission
levels, GHG concentration
levels, radiative forcing
levels, temperature
increase or
sea level rise limits).»