To value Spotify's existing subscribers, I started with the base revenue per subscriber and content costs in 2017, made
assumptions about growth in each item and used a renewal rate of 94.5 %, based again upon 2017 numbers (all in US dollar terms):
As in most such things,
assumptions about growth are driving this, still anyone claiming to think big and long should take it into account.
Furthermore, given that the Chinese INDC peak year target only covers carbon dioxide, analysts have to make
assumptions about the growth rate of non-CO2 gases.
On the limited information available to me, they seem quite promising — but it certainly would have been helpful in making judgments on this point if the IPCC had modelled a low - medium population projection (as in the A1 and B1 scenarios) which made more moderate
assumptions about growth in output and energy use.
Then, you need to make
assumptions about the growth rate of the investments and even then all you have is a more refined estimate.
If you assume low multiples at the end of say, a 10 - year holding period, it would take heroic
assumptions about the growth of dividends and earnings to get a respectable return from stocks (see: Estimating the Long Term Return on Stocks).
Reductions in future GHG emissions are estimated under specific
assumptions about growth in light - duty vehicle travel and the replacement of gasoline by various other fuels, both in the near term (10 years) and over the longer term (25 years).
On the limited information available to me, they seem quite promising — but it certainly would have been helpful in making judgments on this point if the IPCC had modelled a low - medium population projection (as in the A1 and B1 scenarios) which made more moderate
assumptions about growth in output and energy use.
How have
your assumptions about growth or rates changed recently?
200ppm additional CO2 is toughly twice all we have put in since 1945 and consistent with a reasonable
assumption about growth of output and mitigations likely to be made naturally through changing technology.
Not exact matches
The decline is attributable, in large part, to slow
growth in pension values — tweaks to
assumptions about interest rate and life spans had inflated them the prior year — and underwhelming corporate performance.
Ontario's revenue outlook is based on reasonable
assumptions about the pace of
growth in Ontario's economy.
O'Neil said he's skeptical
about the
assumptions that a Trump agenda of increased government spending and tax cuts will be fully enacted and lead to faster
growth, higher inflation and bigger budget deficits.
The Tax Foundation, like Republicans in Congress, prefers to look at tax cuts through «dynamic scoring» — this year's
assumptions about increased
growth become next year's
assumptions about increased tax revenue.
While the
assumptions about the future unemployment rate may be affected by policy, the fact is that slower U.S. population
growth, coupled with an aging population, place substantial limits on labor force
growth, which will leave U.S. GDP
growth almost entirely dependent on changes in productivity.
What I like
about the model I have described above is that it doesn't allow analysts to hide their implicit
assumptions about credit
growth, GDP
growth, and the relationship between the two.
Individuals need to plan for retirement with different
assumptions about longevity, interest rates and
growth.
Just as important, at a time when fears over China's slowing economy are widespread and there's evidence of retail saturation in the country's major metropolitan areas, nearly half of survey participants said they expect to be better off financially in the next 12 months — and they are eager to spend, contrary to gloomy
assumptions about the drag of sluggish economic
growth on consumer sentiment.
(Ben Graham, 1939) «The rub,» writes James Grant in the 6th Edition of Security Analysis (2009), page 18, «was that, in order to apply Williams's method, one needed to make some very large
assumptions about the future course of interest rates, the
growth of profit, and the terminal value of the shares when
growth stops.»
Assumptions about market
growth rates, market share, gross margins and other variables can be made to generate scenarios that will establish a valuation range.
I frequently present calculations of probable long - term stock returns by making a few
assumptions about long - term peak - to - peak
growth in earnings and various future P / E multiples.
The Bank has made initial
assumptions about prospective tax policies only, resulting in a modest upward revision to its US
growth outlook.
Economic projections decades into the future can fluctuate dramatically in response to small changes in
assumptions about economic
growth, demographic predictions or technological changes.
These developments could also significantly affect the
assumptions about the nature and extent of travel
growth Government makes in transport models and appraisal.
The results challenge previous
assumptions about population
growth.
Translating the intensity target into emissions requires
assumptions about the path of Chinese economic
growth.
The new evidence, assembled by a team led by CSHL Associate Professor Lloyd Trotman, contradicts a long - held
assumption about PTEN function, and could help scientists design more effective drugs to counteract cancer's hallmark trait, uncontrolled cellular
growth.
Misconception (PG - 13 for mature themes and some sexual references) Population Boom documentary questioning the conventional
assumptions about humanity's exponential
growth rate.
Explore with the participants why student engagement impacts test results, which groups of students tend to be rapid guessing, and how your
assumptions about student
growth could be impacted.
For now, the Bank of Canada has chosen to incorporate
assumptions about prospective tax policies only, resulting in a modest upward revision to its US
growth outlook.
Every security price effectively boils down to
assumptions about 1) the expectation of future
growth rates, and 2) the expected long term return.
The organization's success challenges society's
assumptions about inclusion and exclusion in art and culture, disability visibility, and access to creative expression as a human right; like any other contemporary artists, Creative
Growth artists use art to tell their stories.
Electric utilities, who have to plan decades ahead and who make their money on investments in energy infrastructure, now find themselves in a brave new world where their
assumptions about perpetual
growth are no longer holding true.
There is no mention in the China Daily article
about when CCICED thinks these reductions should commence, what the
assumptions to GDP
growth are till 2050, nor what levels of carbon emissions will result by 2050 if such measures were taken.
For each category of emissions, an RCP contains a set of starting values and the estimated emissions up to 2100, based on
assumptions about economic activity, energy sources, population
growth and other socio - economic factors.
To do something similar, IEA will need to update some its outdated
assumptions about wind and solar costs and rates of
growth.
Which is something of a body blow to those telling us that we must cease economic
growth if calamity is to be averted: the very
assumptions built into the whole proof that climate change is something we should worry
about say exactly the opposite.
In comments we recently submitted, NRDC, other environmental groups, consumer advocates, customers, and electricity generation and supply companies detailed numerous errors in the ISO's
assumptions, including its
assumptions about future
growth in gas and electricity demand, energy efficiency, and renewable energy, which skew the study results toward a grid that appears more susceptible to fuel security risks.
This paper finds that under a wide range of
assumptions about future
growth in wealth and population, and
about the effects of human - caused climate change, in every case there is far greater potential to affect future losses by focusing attention on the societal conditions that generate vulnerability to losses.
The current IPCC consensus forecast is that, under fairly reasonable
assumptions for world population and economic
growth, global temperatures will rise by
about 30C by the year 2100.
with its highly optimistic
assumptions about the future availability of renewables, nuclear, and CCS, the mid-century carbon emission reduction goal could only be achieved if the annual
growth in GDP per capita between now and 2050 were to slow to a rate of 1 % per year.
All such projections involve
assumptions about the future that can not be tested, so the authors spread their bets: they considered a range of scenarios involving crude population
growth, levels of economic
growth with time, and a series of predictions of sea level rise, as icecaps and glaciers melt, and as the oceans warm and expand according to predictable physical laws.
Gerald Browning has written much
about exponential
growth of instabilities and artefacts appearing when a hydrostatic
assumption is taken.
Using
assumptions about future population, economic
growth, trading conditions and technological progress, the trade model estimated plausible prices of food commodities on the international market given supply as defined by the production estimates.
For one thing, as I've said before, the economic models from which IPCC and others draw these numbers are just this side of wild guesses, based on
assumptions about economic
growth, resource prices, and technological development decades in the future.
Sure enough, IAMs have widely varying baseline scenarios, reflecting different
assumptions about the pace and nature of
growth.
United Nations projections show world population
growth under three different
assumptions about fertility levels.
Our results resolve conflicting
assumptions about the nature of tree
growth, inform efforts to undertand and model forest carbon dynamics, and have additional implications for theories of resource allocation11 and plant senescence12.
Because the models have been built to test man's possible impact on the climate via greenhouse gas emissions, they begin with an econometric forecast of world economic
growth, and, based upon
assumptions about fuel sources and efficiencies, they convert this economic
growth into emissions forecasts.
Uncertainty
about the baseline is associated with
assumptions adopted for rates of technological change and economic
growth, and future prices of fossil fuels.