The data from NOAA arrive as temperatures
at GIStemp, not anomalies.
The reason there's «much traffic for woodfortrees» is that it's by far the best online tool for looking
at GISTEMP etc. from a great variety of perspectives.
Following an email to Hansen and Ruedy of GISS, they changed the introduction
at the GISTEMP intro from: to the following:
The models overestimated warming from 1979 - 2011, but if you look
at GISTEMP for example you can see that the East Pacific is cooler in 2011 than it was in 1979 and the models did not capture that as they have no PDO in the correct phase and are not expected to because PDOs are transient changes.
John Cook, Here is the 2006 paper, and here is the updated graph, which you can find
at gistemp bottom of the page.
Not exact matches
The 2015 temperatures continue a long - term warming trend, according to analyses by scientists
at NASA's Goddard Institute for Space Studies (GISS) in New York (
GISTEMP).
The bottom line: In the
GISTEMP, HadCRU and NCDC analyses D - N 2008 were
at 0.43, 0.42 and 0.47 ºC above the 1951 - 1980 baseline (respectively).
For an example of how that «citizen science» can really work, look
at what Ron Broberg and Zeke Hausfeather are doing with the weather station data — they aren't sitting around declaring that «it can't be done» or that the
GISTEMP / CRU / NCDC methods are fixed, they are going into the data, making choices, seeing what impact they have and determining what is robust.
In particular, the characters visit Punta Arenas (
at the tip of South America), where (very pleasingly to my host institution) they have the
GISTEMP station record posted on the wall which shows a long - term cooling trend (although slight warming since the 1970's).
Posts
at RealClimate (here) and
at SkepticalScience (here) looked on the paper as the second coming of... errr... Hansen's
GISTEMP maybe, saying Cowtan and Way (2013) proved the UKMO HADCRUT4 data underreports by half the warming of global surface temperatures since 1997.
The tool / website will promote the goals of the Climate Code Foundation by providing an intuitive and informative interface exposing the
GISTEMP data
at a level comprehensible and usable for anyone from lay persons with a vague interest in climate change to climate scientists.
However, the impact of coverage bias is pretty clear; it can be seen by simply looking
at a coverage and anomaly map as we did here, or by assessment of coverage bias using
GISTEMP, or by the less valid but independent assessment using UAH.
This can also be seen in the final figure from Morice et al 2012 (detail here), in which HadCRUT4 is
at the top of the pack over recent years, although
GISTEMP and NCDC both lie within the uncertainty range.
Using
GISTemp Land / Ocean Index values and Niño 3.4 values, I computed 12 - month running averages of Niño 3.4 and compared them to the average
GISTemp values
at lags of 0, 3, and 6 months.
«Obviously the
GISTEMP [Goddard Institute for Space Studies Temperature] analysis is independent of that and records or trends in its index stand alone,» Schmidt told The New American
at the time, though most of the establishment media seemingly never got the memo or bothered to ask the question.
Now let's look more closely
at the difference between the non-interpolated data sets (HadCRUT4 and NOAA GlobalTemp) and their interpolated counterparts (Cowtan & Way and NASA
GISTEMP respectively).
Running 60 - month averages of European air temperature
at a height of two metres over land (left - hand axis) according to different datasets: ERA - Interim (Copernicus Climate Change Service, ECMWF);
GISTEMP (NASA); HadCRUT4 (Met Office Hadley Centre), NOAAGlobalTemp (NOAA); and JRA - 55 (JMA).
Running 60 - month averages of global air temperature
at a height of two metres (left - hand axis) and estimated change from the beginning of the industrial era (right - hand axis) according to different datasets: ERA - Interim (Copernicus Climate Change Service, ECMWF);
GISTEMP (NASA); HadCRUT4 (Met Office Hadley Centre), NOAAGlobalTemp (NOAA); and JRA - 55 (JMA).
Unfortunately the
GISTEMP site's mapping capability is down
at the moment, otherwise I would show you.
All that is
at issue here is that UAH saw the 1998 El Nino signal more clearly than
GISTEMP.
GISTemp recently started using satellite observations of lights
at night to identify urban regions — more light means more urban.
And if you look
at zonal temperature records (ie
GISTemp below), the place with the big temperature during the early 20th century was the high northern latutudes that do conveniently have ample ice to melt.
'' Zeke Hausfather says: August 12, 2010
at 2:27 pm Contrary to popular conception, the - only - adjustments
GISTemp makes to individual land station records are to correct for UHI.
You find them
at exactly the same locations in
GISTEMP, HadCRUT3, and NCDC temperature curves.
By the way, I am talking of actual temperature measurements here and am excluding the sharp peak in
GISTEMP at the beginning of 1998 which gives it a boost of 0.07 degrees.
Back
at the original post, I've applied reduced chi - square to see if a ramp plus plateau fits the
GISTEMP data beginning in 1979 better than a ramp alone and that appears to be so.
I think we can all agree that in
at least this case the
GIStemp algorithms failed.
1998 in
GISTemp shows what is supposed to be seen in the difference between surface temperature and the altitude that satellites measure temperature
at during El Nino.
Figure 8 — 1 from National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA), Goddard Institute for Space Studies (GISS), «Global Land - Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 Degrees Celsius,»
at data.giss.nasa.gov /
gistemp / tabledata / GLB.
Let's look
at the last 40 years from
GISTEMP.
Bob Tisdale says: August 20, 2010
at 2:04 am Steven: Isn't 2005 the current record high year for
GISTEMP?
For HadCRUT, CRUTEMP and NCDC, these changes are significant
at better than the 95 % CL, and for
GISTEMP and HadCRUT + C&W, they are better than the 90 % CL.
So pointing
at the «now» version of
GIStemp is just saying the walnut shell moved, and we'd all better keep an eye on it or we won't find the pea.
GISTEMP calculates them
at grid points, as I said in my previous post.
GISTEMP gives you a way of looking
at the gridded data graphically, and it looks like Illinois has significant warming over the century from that too (0.5 - 1 C in this example).
Not that we think the Goddard Institute for Space Studies team are particularly good
at establishing global temperature or anomalies,
at least no better than other industrious teams attempting to do the same thing, it's just that GISS's
GISTEMP is consistently delivering the warmest anomalies and accelerating away from the pack (well it is the house of Hansen, so - called «father of global warming»...).
At first I thought I could use the v2.inv file supplied by
GISTEMP, but the GHCN station identifiers for the contiguous US have changed (so that they're based on their USHCN station identifiers — probably a good thing).
At the same time the
GISTemp global temperatures must be in excess of 0.17 C greater than today (to get another 2.2 C by 2100).
The full 2015 surface temperature data set and the complete methodology used to make the temperature calculation are available
at data.giss.nasa.gov /
gistemp /.
Having a quick look
at it, a good starting point would be to compare the CO2 - rise with, say,
GISTEMP, as the SAT records have similar characteristics to the CO2 - rise data from MLO.
And NOAA has posted for March with a global anomaly of +0.83 ºC, showing a bit more of a bounce back up than seen in the March
GISTEMP / TLT anomalies, in NOAA up from +0.68 ºC in February while January sat
at +0.70 ºC.
GISTEMP has posted for March with a TLT global anomaly of +0.89 ºC, showing the same tiddly bounce back up seen in the March TLT anomalies, in
GISTEMP up from +0.79 ºC in February while January sat
at +0.77 ºC.
Scenario B is
at +1.035 C for 2010 while
GISTemp in a high cycle El Nino - impacted year is going to be a little over +0.600 C (which is still lower than Scenario C (+0.632) which stopped CO2 increases in the year 2000
at 367 ppm — while we are already up to 388 ppm.
Returning to the comparison of UAH TLT anomalies and
GISTEMP LOTI, I've widened the range of the contours to help show the differences
at high latitudes in the Northern Hemisphere.
As per
GISTEMP and due to the low number of stations, I used a 1000 km radius for averaging the grid temperatures (with the weight of each station declining to 0
at 1000 km).
So in example A, removing stations
at northern latitudes, this won't make
GISTEMP warmer.
Converting the anomalies to the actuals,
GIStemp in 2002 had Global Mean temperature in 1880
at 13.89 oC, and by March 2010 this had fallen to 13.76 oC, i.e. colder, not warmer, as your comment claims, thereby exaggerating the apparent warming since 1880.