Sentences with phrase «at multidecadal»

After all, the early (pre-instrumental) data are much less > reliable as indicators of global temperature than is apparent in modern > calibrations that include them and when we don't know the precise role of > particular proxies in the earlier portions of reconstruction it remains > problematic to assign genuine confidence limits at multidecadal and longer > timescales.

The results of this paper reinforce previous claims that the relevant physical mechanisms that explain the detected climatic cycles are still missing in the current GCMs and that climate variations at the multidecadal scales are astronomically induced and, in first approximation, can be forecast.

At multidecadal and longer timescales, evidence from treeline, glacier, and chironomid studies suggests southwestern North America and adjacent regions experienced elevated temperatures on the order of 1 °C or less above long - term means during some or all of the medieval period (refs.

«Temperatures did not fluctuate uniformly among all regions, highlighting the regionally specific evolution of temperature at multidecadal to centennial time scales (Fig. 2).

Their analysis revealed a close coupling of monsoon rainfall on both continents, with numerous synchronous pluvial and drought periods, suggesting that the tropical rain belt expanded and contracted numerous times at multidecadal to centennial scales.

A new study using a high - resolution stalagmite record from Australia with cave sites in southern China reveal a close coupling of monsoon rainfall on both continents, with numerous synchronous pluvial and drought periods, suggesting that the tropical rain belt expanded and contracted numerous times at multidecadal to centennial scales.

There are changes in ocean and atmospheric circulation — and cloud — at multidecadal scales.

Not exact matches

The climatic change at issue is known as the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO), a periodic cycle of warming and cooling of surface temperatures in the North Atlantic.

The authors claim to see variability at all times scales, including multidecadal, but no trend — from which they conclude the AMOC is stable.

At this scale circulation changes likely do have a considerable impact, perhaps even on a multidecadal timescale.

If individuals truly interested in this topic don't, at a minimum, research the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation, the Pacific Decadal Oscillation, and the various solar cycles and their relationship with changes in temperatures, then I am afraid those individuals are no more interested in knowledge than a lazy 4th grader... they drink the Kool - Aid, but they won't do their homework.

The 960 year carrier wave variability can then be modulated — i.e shorter term forecasts can be then made by looking at and projecting forwards on top of the carrier wave the shorter term multidecadal periodicities in the PDO AMO etc..

Indeed, the last thirty years likely represent the warmest multidecadal period for Europe in at least the past half millennium [Luterbacher, J., Dietrich, D., Xoplaki, E., Grosjean, M. and H. Wanner, Science, 303, 1499 - 1503, 2004], while the last decade (1995 - 2004) is likely the warmest decade, and summer 2003 the warmest summer.

Your numerous uncited claims seem to be aimed at someone who disputes the existence of natural multidecadal variability.

The thing is, it's not enough to look at a 10 year period in isolation and I would certainly hesitate to draw conclusions about multidecadal variability based on 10 years of data.

• There is strong evidence that the multidecadal SAT variability in the Atlantic (and globally) is driven (at least partly) by variations in the MOC • A stochastic scenario is most plausible, in which the ocean is driven by the low - frequency portion of the atmospheric variability (NAO).

The long time range of this dataset allows scientists to examine better long time scale climate processes such as the Pacific Decadal Oscillation and the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation as well as looking at the dynamics of historical climate and weather events.

However, this same models fail to reproduce the natural cyclical variability of the climate system at many time scales from the decadal to the multidecadal, secular and millennial scale.

Following MR's calculation, the situation was that VP's exact same sawtooth method was shown to give exact same support to the negation of the hypothesis, that is, that multidecadal climate has only one significant component, the sawtooth, with no warming at all from AHH law.

A few days ago, on Judith Curry's excellent ClimateEtc blog, Vaughan Pratt wrote a post «Multidecadal climate to within a millikelvin» which provided the content and underlying spreadsheet calculations for a poster presentation at the AGU Fall Conference.

Building upon Wyatt's Ph.D. thesis at the University of Colorado, Wyatt and Curry identified two key ingredients to the propagation and maintenance of this stadium wave signal: the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO) and sea ice extent in the Eurasian Arctic shelf seas.

The multidecadal oscillations of the Earth's core relative to the crust described at this 2000 paper by Hide et al fits quite well with this theory, and gives an alternative to the more naive «seismic events» in my theory.

My reason for asking is that my conclusion, namely the parameters resulting from fitting the model to multidecadal climate, seems not to depend significantly on whether one cuts off at 2010, 2000, 1990, 1970, or even 1950.

The only way to ensure support that can span a career is to have some major issue — like climate disaster or the existence of the Higgs boson — that has enough «crowd appeal» to have a chance for multidecadal big science funding, at which point it grows coattails that reach far and wide.

I'm not a climate scientist, but I would have considered it good science to understand the effects of each of the major natural changes that are known to affect global temperatures, including the multidecadal ocean oscillations, long before I started looking at any anthropogenic effects.

(A) coordinate programs at the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration to ensure the timely production and distribution of data and information on global, national, regional, and local climate variability and change over all time scales relevant for planning and response, including intraseasonal, interannual, decadal, and multidecadal time periods;

They do a poor job at simulating the observed modes of natural internal climate variability (e.g. the multidecadal ocean oscillations).

The proposed methodology quickly highlights oscillations and teleconnections among the records at the decadal and multidecadal scales.

The evolution of the multidecadal oscillations (e.g. where you are at on the stadium wave wheel) 2.

The entire idea of higher - frequency components (the power spectrum of the Nino3.4 record peaks at ~ 5.5 a periods) producing multidecadal oscillations upon integration is mathematically impossible.

The «GISS Multidecadal (31 - year span) Changes In Global SST anomaly» data peaked in 1931 at 0.39 deg C. Refer back to Figure 5.

The global warming signal itself is a multidecadal feature of the climate, but just like the seasonal example above, it has been possible at times to take one period of one temperature record - surface air temperatures in most cases - and do a «January - February» job with it, thereby making the claim that temperatures are flatlining or even cooling.

The Effects of the Pacific Decadal Oscillation and Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation on U.S. Regional Weather A climate researcher at Cornell University, Remy Mermelstein has written an interesting and provocative paper showing the linkage between the Pacific Decal Oscillation (PDO) and the climate swings in the United States on a region by region basis.

At shorter, multidecadal / centennial timescales global temperature seems to variate (~ 1 - 2 °C) without ceasing.

-- Wind shear: The less the vertical wind shear — the difference in the direction and force of the winds at the surface compared to several miles into the air — the more powerful the hurricane can become.The influence of the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation

Perhaps this is because Curry's analysis involves natural climate wobbles that work on «on multidecadal time scales,» phenomena that aren't very easy to properly describe at the best of times.

The North Atlantic (not illustrated) also governed by the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation, which had caused the North Atlantic SST anomalies to rise at a rate more than 2 times faster than the global SST anomalies... until ~ 2005.

I like to think of the climate as a metronome; the pivot at bottom of the pendulum is the short multidecadal time scales scientists measure and at the top the weight attached to the pendulum is the longer millenia time scale, as the pendulum is swinging back and forward, climate scientists take measurements from the pivot and try to predict what direction the pendulum is swinging, as the faster moving pivot is a short multidecadal time scale, this is considered the natural variability of weather.

The warming and cooling cycles in the Arctic have nothing at all to do with global warming, but follow the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation, a perfectly natural event, which NOAA says has been occurring for at least the last 1000 years.

These multidecadal trends in LOD are maybe amplifying the terrestrial response at that 60 year frequency.

Decadal variability is described via large - scale patterns found in the atmosphere and ocean, which oscillate at decadal timescales and are concentrated in specific regions (e.g., Pacific Decadal Oscillation, Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation, Arctic and Antarctic Oscillations).

We note however that we have not separated the relative roles of multidecadal variability and externally forced climate change, nor fully discriminated the relative roles of tropical SSTs and extratropical SSTs and sea ice in explaining the circulation trends at high Southern latitudes.

This Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO) is a natural cycle that has existed for at least the last 1,000 years, but has assuredly been around much longer than that.

Paul Vaughan says: July 26, 2011 at 7:06 am so spatial aggregation criteria alone can be responsible for observed amplitudes of multidecadal variation.

At a 2007 conference Cowan reported» Interannual / multidecadal variability linked to the SAM» and «about 1/2 of rainfall decline attributable to anthropogenic forcings».

One study from climate experts at Los Alamos National Laboratories explored the climate impacts of the PDO and Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation on the American Southwest.

You can find me at GC21C - 0566 with a poster titled «An Ekman Transport Mechanism for the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation».

At this point, the evidence that the natural variations Salby cites can transiently affect atmospheric CO2 concentrations is plausible, but the claim that they explain long term multidecadal or centennial trends is untenable.

It does not show an obvious signature of drought in the medieval period, as do the streamflow and DAI records, but there is a multidecadal episode of warm season drought beginning in the 12th century that would have contributed to the overall dry conditions at the time (48).

Predictions at longer timescales, such as 10 or 20 yr are also found to be less skillful, given the observed multidecadal variability.