Mutual funds are destined for poor results because they own 100 stocks of average companies
at average valuations.
We then looked
at average valuations, capital raised, and value (the difference between capital raised and valuation at the time of IPO / M & A) for companies led by founders versus professional managers.
Softbank invested in Uber in December ’17
at an average valuation of about $ 48 billion.
The basic idea behind the two pieces is this: sure, we're
at average valuation levels now, but in a real bear market values can get cut in half from here.
Not exact matches
There's no question that it today's
valuation — if you look
at the S&P overall, forward PE's are about 18.5, the long - term
average is more like 15.5 — you could say that it looks a little bit rich.
During that earlier period, American business earned an
average of 11 percent or so on equity capital employed and stocks, in aggregate, sold
at valuations far above that equity capital (book value),
averaging over 150 cents on the dollar.
But it won't happen for a while for one reason: On
average the folks who pocketed those nearly double - digit gains in past decades were buying
at far lower prices than the big
valuations prevailing today.
«Nowadays,» say the two experts, «
valuations are much more sober: the
average NASDAQ - listed company today trades
at around 21x PE, and even high - flying companies such as Apple, the most valuable company ever, trades
at only 15x PE.»
If you are raising an A round, and this would be an
average Israeli [deal], of $ 3 million funding
at a $ 6 million pre-money
valuation, and you are putting aside a pool of options
at 10 %, you already gave up 33 % of the company.
The latest
valuations — according to Moodys / REAL Commercial Property Price Index — show prices for U.S. retail, industrial, apartment and office buildings have fallen on
average by half from their mid-2007 high and are back
at 2001 levels.
The
averages above do hide a significant amount of variation in returns, and the direction of equity
valuations at any given point in time also matters.
At present, the
valuation measures we find most strongly correlated with actual subsequent S&P 500 total returns suggest zero total returns for the S&P 500 over the coming 10 years, and total returns
averaging only about 1 % annually over the coming 12 - year period.
In contrast, most major markets outside the United States are trading
at valuations at or below their historical
average, as illustrated in the Chart of the Week below:
The favorable market performance associated with many historical economic expansions is fully accounted for by 1) favorable post-recession
valuations, with the S&P 500
averaging less than 9 times prior peak earnings
at the recession low, expanding to just over 11 times peak earnings in the first year of the bull market, and 2) favorable trend uniformity, which typically emerges almost immediately in the form of a powerful breadth thrust off of a bear market low, and is confirmed within a few weeks by much broader trend uniformity.
When an investment horizon begins
at depressed market
valuations and ends
at elevated market
valuations, the total returns of investors over that horizon are always glorious (for example, the total return of the S&P 500
averaged nearly 20 % annually during the 18 - year period between the 1982 low and the 2000 peak).
A decline much more than 2 % below that
average could provoke coordinated exit attempts by trend - followers,
at valuations nowhere near the point where value - conscious investors would be eager to absorb those shares.»
But with long - term bonds and non-cyclical equity sectors trading
at historically extreme
valuations while cyclical sectors trade
at valuations below their long - term
average, we think that risk aversion is creating numerous investment opportunities for investors willing to build a portfolio of more economically sensitive companies.
As usual, I don't place too much emphasis on this sort of forecast, but to the extent that I make any comments
at all about the outlook for 2006, the bottom line is this: 1) we can't rule out modest potential for stock appreciation, which would require the maintenance or expansion of already high price / peak earnings multiples; 2) we also should recognize an uncomfortably large potential for market losses, particularly given that the current bull market has now outlived the median and
average bull, yet
at higher
valuations than most bulls have achieved, a flat yield curve with rising interest rate pressures, an extended period of internal divergence as measured by breadth and other market action, and complacency
at best and excessive bullishness
at worst, as measured by various sentiment indicators; 3) there is a moderate but still not compelling risk of an oncoming recession, which would become more of a factor if we observe a substantial widening of credit spreads and weakness in the ISM Purchasing Managers Index in the months ahead, and; 4) there remains substantial potential for U.S. dollar weakness coupled with «unexpectedly» persistent inflation pressures, particularly if we do observe economic weakness.
One can relate this directly to a 10 - year prospective return by recalling that historical tendency for market cycles to establish normal prospective returns — if even briefly as in 2009 —
at their troughs (and it's typical for troughs to reach below
average valuations and much higher prospective returns than the 10 % historical norm).
It turns out that
at 14.9, the 10 - year
average is nearly identical to the current
valuation of 14.8.
«The Shanghai Composite in aggregate is now trading back well below
average global equity
valuations at the headline index level,» says Jonathan Garner, Morgan Stanley's Chief Asia and Emerging Market Equity Strategist.
Grainger's 10 - year
average P / E ratio has been 19.0 (see the dark blue box in the right panel), meaning that the market has tended to value it about 27 % higher than the historic
valuation of all the companies
at 15.0.
Given that most companies today are trading
at valuations well above their ten - year
averages (i.e. investors usually pay $ 18 - $ 22 for each dollar of profit that Hershey generates, but today they are willing to pay $ 26 - $ 29).
The
average member of this group should grow by about 11 %, far lower than the most expensive stocks» 20 % growth rate, but
at less than half the
valuation.
Full
valuations — Canadian and U.S. equity markets are trading
at above -
average valuations, while strong performance has also lifted overseas
valuations.
Additionally, sky - high
valuations, which in the U.K. now stand
at around six times
average earnings and are closer to double that ratio in the capital, have contributed to the malaise.
European equities are not that cheap anymore by a number of
valuation metrics; they are trading
at an
average of about 17 times earnings, which is not a wide undervaluation.1 In my view, the main reason to invest in European equities is the potential for, or the expectation of, a rise in corporate earnings that would be driven by the improving economic environment.
At the same time, we do have sufficient evidence to indicate that market risk is not worth taking on the basis of
average outcomes from the combination of
valuation and market action we currently observe.»
Over the past twelve months, we have added 14 names to the portfolio, all of which, in our view, can be described as well - managed, high - quality businesses selling
at average or below -
average valuation levels.
For me, it's hard to get excited about stocks
at these
valuations when I can add to my rental portfolio and earn 15 - 20 % cash on cash returns quite easily before accounting for any appreciation and loan paydown... of course you have the headaches of managing tenants and maintenance issues, but even if you pay a 10 % management fee, the numbers are still a lot better than
average stock returns.
1) Overpaid players on high salaries 2) Leave selling players
at the very end of transfer window 3) Club not knowing what their priorities are during a transfer window by planning beforehand 4) Being too greedy for wanting higher
valuation price on
average players or selling players bellow their market rate 5) Letting players hold the club to ransom by giving them game time just to make them happy 6) Using the lack of players leaving as an excuse for not signing more players
If passed, the 20 - year bond would cost homeowners of an
average primary residence valued
at $ 639,000 a total of $ 123 a year, or roughly $ 19.25 per $ 100,000 of assessed
valuation.
In contrast, most major markets outside the United States are trading
at valuations at or below their historical
average, as illustrated in the Chart of the Week below:
By pretty much all measures, it offers access to higher growth rates
at lower
valuations than the
average European stock fund does.
The second FASTGraphs
valuation looks
at «fair value» being defined by the stock's long - term
average P / FFO ratio.
Out of 9,194 stocks tracked by Standard & Poor's Compustat research service, 3,518 are now trading
at less than eight times their earnings over the past year — or
at levels less than half the long - term
average valuation of the stock market as a whole.
Stand - alone bear markets have begun
at higher
valuations, on
average.
It is drawn
at a value of P / E = 13.8, because that is Merck's 5 - year
average historical
valuation.
But given today's low interest rates (recently about 2.3 % for 10 - year Treasuries) and relatively rich stock
valuations (Yale finance professor Robert Shiller's cyclically adjusted P / E ratio for the stock market recently stood
at 29.2 vs. an
average of 16.7 since 1900), it would seem to strain credulity to expect anything close to the annualized returns of close to the annualized return of 10 % for stocks and 5 % for bonds over the past 90 years or so, let alone the dizzying gains the market has generated from its post-financial crisis lows.
While reading through the transcripts of some of Greenblatt's classes
at Columbia, I noticed he mentioned a similar point about being
average at valuation work (not really better than anyone else in the business), but being above
average at putting the information in context, remembering the big picture, and being able to pinpoint what factors really matter to an investment.
An
average bear market within a «secular» bear market period (a period generally about 17 - 18 years, where
valuations begin
at rich levels and achieve progressively lower levels over the course of 3 - 4 separate bull - bear cycles) is about 39 %, and wipes out about 80 % of the preceding bull market advance.
Starting
at today's
valuations, it takes about 20 years before a stock market investor can be reasonably confident (80 % +) of achieving a gain (after inflation) even though he uses dollar cost
averaging.
Just about every
valuation metric you can look
at is currently well below the five - year
average, which is somewhat warranted in light of slowing growth.
So 9 % is a very conservative planning assumption
at current
valuations, is beneath the TSE / TSX index's long - term
average return, and an acceleration in inflation is not required to achieve such return.
Most are now vastly more expensive, trading
at spreads or
valuations considerably richer than historical
averages.
«Even with small caps lagging, the
valuations in our view are still well above long - term
averages,» says Kate Warne, investment strategist
at Edward Jones in St. Louis.
I have located the flaw in Dollar Cost
Averaging at today's
valuations: human frustration.
So, if Markel's ROE
averages 13 % over time, then
at 1.3 times book (roughly the current
valuation), Markel currently has a P / E ratio of just 10.
Almost all of the factors and smart beta strategies exhibit a negative relationship between starting
valuation and subsequent performance whether we use the aggregate measure or P / B to define relative
valuation.9 Out of 192 tests shown here, not a single test has the «wrong» sign: in every case, the cheaper the factor or strategy gets, relative to its historical
average, the more likely it is to deliver positive performance.10 For most factors and strategies (two - thirds of the 192 tests) the relationship holds with statistical significance for horizons ranging from one month to five years and using both
valuation measures (44 % of these results are significant
at the 1 % level).
Long - term investors understand that the most reliable way to generate above -
average returns is to be a long - term investor in above -
average businesses purchased
at sound
valuation.