Sentences with phrase «at decadal time»

«We found that variation of cloud cover determines Rs at a monthly scale but that aerosols determine the variability of Rs at a decadal time scale, in particular, over Europe and China.»

The fact that the long - term trends in rainfall and Pacific SSTs are both positive, the opposite of their interannual relationship (Power et al., 1998), explains only a portion of why the correlation is reduced at decadal time scales.

Roger could reply again by stating that models that don't show skill in projecting changing statistics can not be used for this reasoning by simulation, but I remain to disgree with him: the skill of climate models to project changing climate statistics at decadal time scales can formally not be established due to large role of natural variability, but is also not always required for generating useful information that enters the imagination process.

Even a perfect model can deviate significantly from past observed trends or changes, just because the physical system allows variability at decadal time scales; the climate and its trend that we're experiencing is just one of the many climates that we could have had.

As I indicated in an earlier blog, the natural variability at decadal time scales hinders the validation of any projection against observations, as these observations reflect just one possible trend.

At decadal time scales, warming over the tropics leads to drought over the Sahel, whereas warming over the North Atlantic promotes increased rainfall.

When used to generate electricity, the shale - gas footprint is still significantly greater than that of coal at decadal time scales but is less at the century scale.

You note that at decadal time scales, the new RSS data is consistent with the models, while the old UAH data is not; what about the new UAH data?

Not exact matches

A study led by scientists at the GEOMAR Helmholtz Centre for Ocean Research Kiel shows that the ocean currents influence the heat exchange between ocean and atmosphere and thus can explain climate variability on decadal time scales.

«Such decadal climate fluctuations are superimposed on the general warming trend, so that at times it seems as if the warming trend slowed or even stopped.

The troubles surrounding Webb and WFIRST, Rieke says, could delay the next such survey, which would at minimum throw off the timing for those of other fields — particularly the next decadal survey planned for planetary science.

I think the decadal background rate of increase is in the 2.4 to 2.5 ppm range at this time.

Indeed, the paleoclimate community, with help from the various funding agencies, e.g. NSF, NOAA, etc., is actively engaged in work that should extend our knowledge at the relevant temporal resolutions (i.e. decadal) several millennia back in time.

At longer (decadal) time scales, the models still show very similar results (which makes sense since we anticipate that the tropical atmospheric physics involved in the trend should be similar to the physics involved at the monthly and interannual timescalesAt longer (decadal) time scales, the models still show very similar results (which makes sense since we anticipate that the tropical atmospheric physics involved in the trend should be similar to the physics involved at the monthly and interannual timescalesat the monthly and interannual timescales).

The fact that this is possible indicates that we have achieved a fundamental understanding of the system, at least on annual to decadal time scales.

At the same time they are real at least in as much as they are measurable by wide scale (beyond the local), sustained (more than decadal) physical, economic and social yardsticks (real people suffered due to the LIAAt the same time they are real at least in as much as they are measurable by wide scale (beyond the local), sustained (more than decadal) physical, economic and social yardsticks (real people suffered due to the LIAat least in as much as they are measurable by wide scale (beyond the local), sustained (more than decadal) physical, economic and social yardsticks (real people suffered due to the LIA).

This too is questionable, as there are reasons to think the ocean uptake of heat varies at different time scales and may be influenced by ENSO, the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO), and the Atlantic Multi-decadal Oscillation (AMO).

This is fine for estimates at annual and decadal time scales, but as you approach the timespan covered by each core, you run a serious risk of starting to remove part of the climatic variation, thereby under - estimating the total amount that occurred, with the loss being greatest at the longest time scales (i.e. lowest frequency variation).

While rereading the ocean heat content changes by Levitus 2005 at http://www.nodc.noaa.gov/OC5/PDF/PAPERS/grlheat05.pdf a remarkable sentence was noticed: «However, the large decrease in ocean heat content starting around 1980 suggests that internal variability of the Earth system significantly affects Earth's heat balance on decadal time - scales.»

These events are crucial for the decadal frequency of the temperature at that time and produce something like a 9 year oscillation.

If, for example, we were to create a piece-wise continuous trend keeping your own trend, we'd find the 0.17 C decadal warming trend from your starting point preceded by an estimated warming of equal magnitude in the combined 125 prior years (beginning at a time where only 1/4 of the present day coverage existed, thus placing the entire 125 year warming more or less within the margin of statistical insignificance).

Let's take just one example of a paper that was vilified at the time — http://www.agu.org/pubs/crossref/2009/2008JD011637.shtml/quote — for suggesting that the dependence of surface temperature on ENSO and the decadal changes in ENSO character could influence decadal temperatures trends.

However, as the main source papers for the IPCC had to be gathered some time ago, the Scripps - led study of the Pacific decadal oscillation will not have made it into the final report, the first part of which will be presented at a meeting in Stockholm next month.

In general, to have a mean decadal increase in energy imbalance of 0.3 W / m ^ 2, it must be the case that the growth in forcing times (1 - TCR / ECS) = 0.3 Even with ECS and TCR at, respectively the upper and lower end of the likely range from AR5, that requires a decadal growth of forcing of 0.39 W / m ^ 2, significantly more than the figure you derived from the AR5 chart.

Abstract — 2008 Climate and wildfires in the North American boreal forest... Climate controls the area burned through changing the dynamics of large - scale teleconnection patterns (Pacific Decadal Oscillation / El Niño Southern Oscillation and Arctic Oscillation, PDO / ENSO and AO) that control the frequency of blocking highs over the continent at different time scales......... Since the end of the Little Ice Age, the climate has been unusually moist and variable: large fire years have occurred in unusual years, fire frequency has decreased and fire — climate relationships have occurred at interannual to decadal time scales...... http://rstb.royalsocietypublishing.org/content/363/1501/2315.short ---------------Decadal Oscillation / El Niño Southern Oscillation and Arctic Oscillation, PDO / ENSO and AO) that control the frequency of blocking highs over the continent at different time scales......... Since the end of the Little Ice Age, the climate has been unusually moist and variable: large fire years have occurred in unusual years, fire frequency has decreased and fire — climate relationships have occurred at interannual to decadal time scales...... http://rstb.royalsocietypublishing.org/content/363/1501/2315.short ---------------decadal time scales...... http://rstb.royalsocietypublishing.org/content/363/1501/2315.short ----------------------

As these things are fitting in category of predictable - and global decadal volcanic prediction isn't as an amusing game at this time - though the «right» volcanic events could change this into a new poplar fetish.

The long time range of this dataset allows scientists to examine better long time scale climate processes such as the Pacific Decadal Oscillation and the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation as well as looking at the dynamics of historical climate and weather events.

The study by Macias & Johnson (2008) provides not only evidence for the link between decadal - scale changes in the teleconnection patterns (e.g. the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) index) and the increased fire frequency in the late twentieth century but also an explanation of why the pattern of fire variability and fire - climate relationships changes at different time scales from centennial / decadal to interannudecadal - scale changes in the teleconnection patterns (e.g. the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) index) and the increased fire frequency in the late twentieth century but also an explanation of why the pattern of fire variability and fire - climate relationships changes at different time scales from centennial / decadal to interannuDecadal Oscillation (PDO) index) and the increased fire frequency in the late twentieth century but also an explanation of why the pattern of fire variability and fire - climate relationships changes at different time scales from centennial / decadal to interannudecadal to interannual.....

However, this same models fail to reproduce the natural cyclical variability of the climate system at many time scales from the decadal to the multidecadal, secular and millennial scale.

At decadal and longer time scales, the main source of rotational variation is the interaction between the mantle and core, as substantiated by the significant correlation between the low - degree zonal components of the magnetic field and the LOD (Jault and Le Mouel 1991; Hide et al. 2000).

The novelty is that this area unlike most others has at the moment an appearance of moving in unison over a short decadal time span with this mostly external forcing.

Centuries are made of decades Joshua, so unless you expect the effects of CO2 to manifest suddenly at the end of some time period, then a signal that is not infinitesimal should be apparent at the decadal level — and I seem to recall one particular decade where there was quite a bit of handwaving.

This paper reviews advances made during the last decade to better understand the impact of global SST variability on West African rainfall at interannual to decadal time scales.

(A) coordinate programs at the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration to ensure the timely production and distribution of data and information on global, national, regional, and local climate variability and change over all time scales relevant for planning and response, including intraseasonal, interannual, decadal, and multidecadal time periods;

I agree that the ambition to make (regional) climate predictions even at decadal or longer time scales can not be supported by the current apparent feasibility, given the studies that demonstrate the lack of predictive skill.

The slower components of the climate system (e.g. the ocean and biosphere) affect the statistics of climate variables (e.g. precipitation) and since they may feel the influence of their initial state at multi decadal time scales, it is possible that climate changes also depend on the initial state of the climate system (e.g. Collins, 2002; Pielke, 1998).

Within the confines of our work with RASM and CESM, we will: (i) quantify the added value of using regional models for downscaling arctic simulations from global models, (ii) address the impacts of high resolution, improved process representations and coupling between model components on predictions at seasonal to decadal time scales, (iii) identify the most important processes essential for inclusion in future high resolution GC / ESMs, e.g. ACME, using CESM as a test bed, and (iv) better quantify the relationship between skill and uncertainty in the Arctic Region for high fidelity models.

Large - scale climate variations, such as the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO), El Niño - Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), are occurring at the same time as the global climate is changing.

However, contribution from local climate to 10Be deposition may be essential at interannual - decadal time scales (Pedro et al. 2006, 2011; Usoskin et al. 2009).

At the same time, records with decadal to centennial resolution (along with their estimates of uncertainty) are important constraints on low - frequency responses of the climate system.

Additional proxy records that cover the entire CE are needed to investigate decadal - to centennial - scale responses of climate to changes in radiative forcing as well as internal variability at these time scales.

The temporal variability of river and soil water affects society at time scales ranging from hourly to decadal.

The IPCC hypothesis that AGW, caused principally by human CO2 emissions, has been the primary cause of past warming and that it represents a serious potential threat to humanity or our environment is an «uncorroborated hypothesis» at this time, unless one agrees with Pielke that the recent decadal lack of warming of the atmosphere (surface plus troposphere) as well as the upper ocean despite record increase in CO2 levels has falsified it, in which case it has become a «falsified hypothesis», until such time that the falsification can be refuted with empirical evidence.

Another paper in Climate Change in 2007 stated: Studies that have looked at hemispheric and global scales conclude that any urban - related trend is an order of magnitude smaller than decadal and longer time - scale trends evident in the series (e.g., Jones et al., 1990; Peterson et al., 1999)... Thus, the global land warming trend discussed is very unlikely to be influenced significantly by increasing urbanization (Parker, 2006).

Likewise, an annual or decadal observation from the modern instrumental record can not be compared against values from their reconstruction, if their reconstruction is not capable of resolving events at that time scale.

«The figure clarifies that internal climate variability over a short decadal or 15 - year time scale is at least as important as the forced climate changes arising from greenhouse gas emissions.»

So, the most common and by far the largest forcing at any given time is multi decadal variations in energy emissions from the oceans.

What is more, she is trying to claim the models are wrong period by using data on a decadal time frame (full well knowing that they struggle on such time scales), but at the same time is informing CFAN clients that they can provide forecasts on a decadal time scale.

At the very least they do a poor job on decadal time scales.

Studies that have looked at hemispheric and global scales conclude that any urban - related trend is an order of magnitude smaller than decadal and longer time - scale trends evident in the series (e.g., Jones et al., 1990; Peterson et al., 1999).