«We ran five years of ocean circulation in the model, and we measured the damping of
energy at every grid point to see what the statistics are,» Fox - Kemper said.
Multiply that by five to account for pressure, density and three components of velocity to describe the
flow at every grid point.
(The red line shows the histogram of the rank of the observed
trend at each grid point, within the CMIP5 ensemble spread - ideally, it would be flat, and the slope up to the left means that there are relatively more obs in the low end of the model range than at the top end.)
Yuan et al. (LDEO Columbia University), 5.08 (+ / - 0.51), Statistical The prediction is made by statistical models, which are capable to predict Arctic sea ice
concentrations at grid points 3 - month in advance with reasonable skills.
At each grid point, computers churn through equations to determine the winds, temperature, moisture, currents, or other variables at a given moment.
Then they run these equations forward in time, solving
them at each grid point every 20 or 30 minutes.
The linear trend is computed
at each grid point using a least squares fit to the time series at each grid point.
The linear trend is computed
at each grid point using a least squares fit to the time series at each grid point.
Yuan et al. (LDEO Columbia University), 5.18 (± 0.38), Statistical The prediction is made by statistical models that are capable to predict Arctic sea ice concentrations
at grid points 2 - month in advance with reasonable skill.
Then,
at each grid point, we compared the value of the observation with the ensemble of model values at each grid point, evaluating the rank of the observation in the ordered set of ensemble values and observed value.