Any discussion about not being
at equilibrium yet (the usual response), fails to notice that on a daily basis the temperature varies by 10 - 15 degrees and that these changes will force the ground / atmosphere to get to equilibrium within a day or two.
Not exact matches
And
yet the Japanese will play to a draw with equanimity, content
at the last simply to let go, so that all forces can reach
equilibrium, and I do not believe their version of the game is necessarily any less elegant or profound than ours.
Yet the recent elections in Italy have shown that this
equilibrium has collapsed in that country
at least, where austerity has been so punitive to the middle classes.
In our opinion, both ACC phases are precipitated in parallel
at intermediate binding strength, that is, the system is not
yet in thermodynamic
equilibrium (Gibbs» phase rule).
In the unlikely case of an abrupt fuel burning cessation, we could add aerosols
at a decreasing rate, both to smooth the transition, but also because atmospheric CO2 would drop significantly during the first few years after a cessation, as the shorter term reservoirs have not
yet come to
equilibrium and would still be absorbing CO2
at a decent clip for several years.
The heat source may have reached a constant temperature, but the Earth isn't necessarily
at equilibrium with the new warmer environment
yet.
However, as the TOA energy imbalance currently is about 0.8 W / m ^ 2, we clearly are not
yet at equilibrium even though we are, by the approximation above,
at the TCR for the current forcing.
So it seems to me that the simple way of communicating a complex problem has led to several fallacies becoming fixed in the discussions of the real problem; (1) the Earth is a black body, (2) with no materials either surrounding the systems or in the systems, (3) in radiative energy transport
equilibrium, (4) response is chaotic solely based on extremely rough appeal to temporal - based chaotic response, (5) but
at the same time exhibits trends, (6) but
at the same time averages of chaotic response are not chaotic, (7) the mathematical model is a boundary value problem
yet it is solved in the time domain, (8) absolutely all that matters is the incoming radiative energy
at the TOA and the outgoing radiative energy
at the Earth's surface, (9) all the physical phenomena and processes that are occurring between the TOA and the surface along with all the materials within the subsystems can be ignored, (10) including all other activities of human kind save for our contributions of CO2 to the atmosphere, (11) neglecting to mention that if these were true there would be no problem
yet we continue to expend time and money working on the problem.
However, once
equilibrium is as close as it can be then theoretically, re-radiation should occur
at night, or
at the point when the temperature goes down, and presumably this is where the greenhouse effect should be felt the most —
yet matter emits heat very quickly — and quickly thermalise to new temperatures, so as not to give off that much radiation.
There is never a state of instantaneous radiative energy transport
equilibrium at the TOA, so these assertions must refer to some kind of quasi-
equilibrium, again over some as
yet un-specified time period, in which there are some degrees of departure from
equilibrium with both net incoming or net out - going states.
By dividing the total temperature change (as indicated by the best - fit linear trend) by the observed rise in atmospheric carbon dioxide content, and then applying that relationship to a doubling of the carbon dioxide content, Loehle arrives
at an estimate of the earth's transient climate sensitivity — transient, in the sense that
at the time of CO2 doubling, the earth has
yet to reach a state of
equilibrium and some warming is still to come.
The paleo record is not
at all ambiguous: as temperature rose in response to natural increases in insolation more GHGs were released into the atmosphere (mainly CO2, CH4, and H2O), and then those GHGs induced
yet more warming, which released
yet more GHGs, etc., until
equilibrium — and a warmer climate — was reached.
Hence, CO2 and water vapor must, in an
equilibrium, produce about 33 ° C. However,
at the top of Everest the temperature in the high summer climbing season is about -16 and in winters falls to about -37 ° C,
yet the CO2 pressure is only about a third of that
at sea level.