He goes over the advantages and disadvantages of the different types of selling strategies by looking
at hypothetical stock charts.
Not exact matches
Assume an investor is bullish on
hypothetical stock FAB, which is currently trading
at $ 42.50, and does not believe it will fall below $ 35 over the next two weeks.
Let's look
at how a
hypothetical portfolio made up of 70 % in
stocks and 30 % in bonds would fair with a large
stock market loss
at different levels of bond returns:
As less mature
stocks have higher growth potential, a
hypothetical investor with a significant portfolio allocation into the Fund would likely be looking
at obtaining higher returns for his or her portfolio, with commensurately higher risk.
Check out the following chart, which shows
hypothetical investments of $ 100,000 in the Near - Term Tax Free Fund and S&P 500
stocks at the end of 1999.
If a
hypothetical $ 100,000 had been invested in both NEARX and S&P 500
stocks at the end of 1999, it would have taken 13 years for the equities to climb ahead.
Assume an investor is bullish on
hypothetical stock FAB, which is currently trading
at $ 42.50, and does not believe it will fall below $ 35 over the next two weeks.
In fact, when I plugged in
stock allocations ranging from as low as 30 % to as high as 90 %, the chances of this
hypothetical 65 - year - old's nest egg lasting
at least 30 years didn't change all that much, falling between 77 % and 79 %.
Let's assume you short 100 shares of
hypothetical stock ABC
at $ 10 per share; after a period of time, the
stock has declined to $ 5,
at which point you buy it back.
The results are absolutely stunning: the
hypothetical portfolio of these so - called «net - net»
stocks, many of which had no earnings
at all, produced a shocking 35.2 % annual return for the period from 1984 - 2008.
This is a
hypothetical scenario Roche traces through a couple of prior iterations to arrive
at, but basically, the blue line is showing the return of a 100 %
stock portfolio, while the red line shows the return of a portfolio split 50/50 between
stocks and bonds.
In 90 % of the observations, the fundamentally weighted index is buying when the
stock underperforms and selling when the
stock outperforms.4 To see whether another smart beta strategy would have traded the same
stocks in the same direction, we also looked
at the transactions that would have been executed by a
hypothetical equal - weighted index whose holdings were contained in the Russell 1000 ® Index.
In our
hypothetical exercise, there's no dispersion
at all between A and B, and a considerable dispersion between C and D. High dispersion gives skillful
stock pickers a better chance to showcase their abilities.
At the end of each month, the
hypothetical portfolios invested in the
stocks passing these screens are rebalanced.
Only Zacks Rank
stocks included in Zacks
hypothetical portfolios
at the beginning of each month are included in the return calculations.
I have been looking
at the numbers for Germany because the engineer in me takes much more
stock in numbers from a real working system than from
hypotheticals and projections.
Don't you think that you are giving a very
hypothetical situation — «Take for instance someone who had enough equity exposure thru MF or
stocks and want to look
at confirmed returns...».