This demands that you be correct twice — when you buy and when you sell — and market timing puts emotions in the driver's seat,
especially at market tops and bottoms.
The analysis is so detailed, that you will find data such as what percentage of times does a bar closes on its high or
low at a market top.
This makes them less inclined to get more bullish as the market goes higher — a tendency that leads to being excessively
bullish at market tops.
Vancouverites, who bought homes
at the market top in 1980, had to wait 26 years just to recover their inflation - adjusted principal back.
Buy the dips because history shows that even
buying at market tops has proven profitable over time, Bespoke co-founder Paul Hickey says.
Consider the much smaller net speculative
position at the market top near $ 50 in April 2011 compared to the peaks seen since early 2016 and especially last year.
Put simply, the history of corporate stock buybacks is a chronicle of corporations buying stock with borrowed
money at market tops, and retreating from buybacks at the very points that stocks are most reasonably valued.
This dissonance in risk perception in theory and in practice is what leads to investors reducing risk at market bottoms and increasing
risk at market tops.
Our emotions cause us to do the wrong thing at the wrong time (e.g. sell in panic AFTER a crash and buy
greedily at market tops).
«No one rings a
bell at market tops or market bottoms» — Wall Street adage I'm calling my shot.
These indicators show that the «crowd» can be reliably wrong at important market junctures as people fall prey to the collective emotions of fear (at market bottoms) and greed (
at market tops).
At market tops, typically credit spreads are tight, but they have been tight for several years, while seemingly cheap leverage builds up.
(I don't have enough in int» l funds and want to move some of my money in, but I'd prefer to avoid going all - in
at a market top...)