To begin to answer these questions we really need a close look
at the paleoclimate data.
I mean, my gosh even the agreed upon value of about 0.7 C (+ / - 0.2 C) seems trivial when looking
at paleoclimate data.
A number of major studies looking
at paleoclimate data come to the same conclusion.
Looking
at the paleoclimate record might be one excellent way of seeing what this additional CO2 might do to the climate system.
A number of major studies looking
at paleoclimate data come to the same conclusion.
Ironically, when we look
at paleoclimates, both the cold climates of the Ice Ages, and the warm climates of the Tertiary (from 65 to 2.5 million years ago), the same uncertainty exists.
Not exact matches
Carmala Garzione, a professor of earth and environmental sciences
at the University of Rochester, and Junsheng Nie, a visiting research associate
at the University, surveyed sediment samples from the northern Tibetan Plateau's Qaidam Basin and were able to construct
paleoclimate cycle records from the late Miocene epoch of Earth's history, which lasted from approximately 11 to 5.3 million years ago.
Eelco Rohling, an ocean and climate scientist
at the University of Southampton in England, has studied the
paleoclimate record going back 50 million years.
«Everything was structurally intact, the reef looked almost normal,» Cobb, a
paleoclimate scientist
at Georgia Tech, said.
They write, «The occurrence of humid periods previously identified in lacustrine or speleothem records highlights the complexity and heterogeneity of the Arabian
paleoclimate, and suggests that interior migration pathways through the Arabian Peninsula may have been viable approximately every 23,000 years since
at least marine isotope state (MIS) 6,» about 191 thousand years ago.
The former head of geosciences
at the National Science Foundation, she says the 1 - gigaton - a-year figure for atmospheric CO2 was based on
paleoclimate records.
«This does not necessarily mean that a similar response would happen in the future with increasing CO2 levels, since the boundary conditions are different from the ice age,» added by Professor Gerrit Lohmann, leader of the
Paleoclimate Dynamics group
at the Alfred Wegener Institute.
Valorie Aquino, one of three co-chairs of the March for Science and a
paleoclimate researcher
at the University of New Mexico, says it is crucial for scientists to tell their stories and personalize for the public the role science plays in their daily lives.
«With present - day emission rates, it's expected that we'll reach 600 ppm before the end of this century,» says study coauthor Simone Galeotti, a
paleoclimate scientist
at the University of Urbino in Italy.
Other features of the record are also redated, such as the East African megadroughts (24), which must have terminated
at least 10 ka earlier than the previous estimate of 75 ka B.P. Clearly, existing comparisons of the Lake Malawi
paleoclimate data to other regional and global records (24, 25, 32) will need to be revised in the light of these findings.
We then examine climate impacts during the past few decades of global warming and in
paleoclimate records including the Eemian period, concluding that there are already clear indications of undesirable impacts
at the current level of warming and that 2 °C warming would have major deleterious consequences.
This post examines natural
paleoclimate trends and simple characteristics of past and present climate cycles
at different time scales.
Paleoclimate data for sea level change indicate that sea level changed
at rates of the order of a meter per century [81]--[83], even
at times when the forcings driving climate change were far weaker than the human - made forcing.
There are plenty of other examples, and of course, there is a lot of intrinsic interest in
paleoclimate that is not related to climate models
at all!
Indeed, the
paleoclimate community, with help from the various funding agencies, e.g. NSF, NOAA, etc., is actively engaged in work that should extend our knowledge
at the relevant temporal resolutions (i.e. decadal) several millennia back in time.
Many
paleoclimate archives document climate changes that happened
at rates considerably exceeding the average rate of change for longer - term averaging periods prior and after this change... A variety of mechanisms have been suggested to explain the emergence of such abrupt climate changes (see Section 12.5.5).
One other point on cloud feedbacks from a
paleoclimate perspective — if a strong negative cloud feedback begins
at modern earth temperatures, it would be unlikely for past temperatures to have exceeded modern ones.
Now, on the thresholds business, you should be aware that I'm probably more conservative on this than most in the
paleoclimate research community, especially those (like Alley, and me) that have worked mostly on ice cores, looking
at longer timescales.
- I don't study tree rings
at all, so this will be quite naive, but I took a class on
paleoclimate (actually with one of your old office - mates, Mathias Vuille) discussing the standarization procedure and why this tends to remove some of the low - frequency variation, though we never got into quantitative detail.
Just a quick note to say that the
paleoclimate data for earlier warm periods 125,000 years ago and even 8 - 10,000 years ago in northern Alaska (
paleoclimate warmer than now, [from] different forcings) document the northward advance of the treeline from Nome to Barrow, Alaska, and the Canadian border
at different times of change in Earth's orbital parameters (without a significant change in CO2).
Almost all of the authors here
at Realclimate have done substantial work in
paleoclimate for decades, as you can see from our publication lists (including the textbook Paleoclimatology).
The
paleoclimate with CO2
at 3000 ppm was much different to the current environment and would not have supported human life.
I've done a fair amount of calculations trying to estimate this bias, and in the case of
paleoclimate 3C estimates, an upward of
at least 0.5 C due to this bias is not unreasonable, especially when the «consensus» position is to basically ignore milankovitch cycles when explaining temperature changes over the pleistocene, even though milankovitch cycles are the ultimate causes of those temperature changes.
«In reality climate models have been tested on multicentennial time scales against
paleoclimate data (see the most recent PMIP intercomparisons) and do reasonably well
at simulating small Holocene climate variations, and even glacial - interglacial transitions.
However, in one of Gavin Schmidt's recent blog posts, he mentioned an ATTP blog post, where
at the top of the comments I pointed out this fact quite strongly, so maybe he saw my comments and will eventually change his mind about
Paleoclimate estimates (there might be hope).
The most recent major paper (Sherwood) indicates quite the opposite, and absolutely none of the recent
paleoclimate data indicates this, which is a big part of the data that we are looking
at in detail to ascertain sensitivity.
The linear trend line is now
at +1.06 °C, which is perhaps the best temperature to compare to
paleoclimate temperatures, because the latter are «centennially - smoothed,» i.e., the proxy measures of ancient temperature typically have a resolution not better than 100 years.
One has only to look
at the recent exchange of papers in Annals of Statistics (McShane and Wyner) on
paleoclimate or the recent withdrawl of a paper claiming an «Australian hockey stick» caused by a blogger (Steve McIntyre) who had the gaul to approach the results skeptically to see what the problem is here.
Indeed, increasing variability
at longer scales actually ties in better with
paleoclimate reconstructions than the assumption of averaging out.
In fact some
at IPCC have argued the
paleoclimate data are irrelevant to the case for precautionary action.
WHT The Charney report also considered
paleoclimate studies which demonstrated
at least a 3C climate sensitivity NOT TRUE The phrase associated was «might be» It» might be» much smaller.
The Charney report also considered
paleoclimate studies which demonstrated
at least a 3C climate sensitivity — higher likely due to the long time scales involved.
Zorita is a Spanish paleoclimatologist who is currently is the head of the Department of
Paleoclimate at the GKSS Research Centre in Germany.
I noticed in answering a recent comment
at Real Climate that Gavin Schmidt distanced himself from the importance of
paleoclimate reconstructions.
Program areas
at GISS may be roughly divided into the categories of climate forcings; climate model development; Earth observations; atmospheric radiation; atmospheric chemistry; climate impacts; planetary atmospheres, exoplanets, and astrobiology;
paleoclimate; and other disciplines.
The other important happening was the fall meeting of the American Geophysical Union, which would be attended by many of the big names in
paleoclimate and
at which both McIntyre and Amman would be making presentations.
If you look
at Mann's worldwide MWP reconstruction publications, you will see that it is (necessarily) based on modelling based on scattered
paleoclimate proxies.
On the historical scale — the
paleoclimate scale — the sun is important, we know the sun is driving these long cycles, but if you look
at the small variations in the solar radiation and the variations in the climate data they don't match up.
OZ, India, USA etc have experienced very extreme long periods of drought and flooding over the
paleoclimate record and
at present we are fortunate that we live in a modern era with better monitoring and forecasting of weather, backed up with modern technology plus the ability (if we have the brains) to quickly use more R&D.
This post examines natural
paleoclimate trends and simple characteristics of past and present climate cycles
at different time scales.
• Prof Bob Carter is a geologist
at James Cook University, Queensland, engaged in
paleoclimate research
But only the ice core methods have the resolution to say if there were other still - briefer events — and so the
paleoclimate researchers are now looking
at sites in North Greenland and Antarctica that might be capable of yielding undisturbed cores.
At present, the Pacific shifts erratically and frequently between warm and cold phases, but
paleoclimate data indicates that, even during the Holocene, there were extended periods when it was stuck in one phase or the other.
Chapter 6 highlights the fact that there are now a large number of different
paleoclimate studies which all lead to the same key conclusion that northern hemisphere mean temperatures in recent decades are likely unprecedented in
at least a millennial timeframe.
At least then, its missions did not include
paleoclimate work or using bad social network analysis to attack peer review in
paleoclimate.