Sentences with phrase «at peak earnings»

discount to real estate value, low multiple cyclicals at peak earnings, insurers, specialty finance co's on backside of growth

modest proposal discount to real estate value, low multiple cyclicals at peak earnings, insurers, specialty finance co's on backside of growth

Not exact matches

Earnings, which peaked at $ 3.2 billion a decade ago, are expected to be $ 1.5 billion for 2014.

So if we look at a range of market valuation measures, whether it's Shiller CAPE, whether its price - to - book, whether it's price - to - trailing earnings, price - to - peak earnings, when we look at these measures, they look like they're in the, what we would call, the 10th decile, meaning generally, valuations are cheaper 90 % of the time.

According to salary data, on average, women's earnings peak at 38 and men's at 48.

Now, earnings are running at around $ 2 billion a year and trending toward the mid-2000s peak.

The peak of the public sector earnings distribution is much higher, at twenty - something dollars per hour, and there are a good number of public sector workers earning $ 40 or $ 50 an hour.

The US market is looking the most expensive to us at a time when US corporate earnings are already well past their prior peaks.

I finally peaked out my earnings where it was hard to make much more plus my bosses at the time decided to drastically lower our commission structure to finance their expensive houses.

Also, as you approach retirement, you're often at the peak of your earnings and your ability to build retirement savings.

Well, we know that earnings, revenues, and nominal GDP have historically proceeded at a peak - to - peak growth rate of 6 % annually across economic cycles.

While a number of simple measures of valuation have also been useful over the years, even metrics such as price - to - peak earnings have been skewed by the unusual profit margins we observed at the 2007 peak, which were about 50 % above the historical norm - reflecting the combination of booming and highly leveraged financial sector profits as well as wide margins in cyclical and commodity - oriented industries.

Since earnings growth for the S&P 500 has never grown faster than about 6 % annually when properly measured from peak - to - peak or trough - to - trough, we're talking about a long term total return of about 7.2 % if - and it's a big if - P / E ratios were held at current extremes forever.

While it's true that the market established even deeper valuation troughs in 1974 and 1982 (near 7 times prior peak earnings, compared with the current multiple of about 11), it is important to remember that long - term Treasury yields were 8 % in 1974, and 14 % in 1982, compared with about 4 % at present.

If we examine median price / earnings ratios of different groups in the S&P 500 at the 2000 market peak and at current levels, we observe the following pattern:

The Wells Fargo Investment Institute recently suggested that earnings growth may have peaked in the first quarter, while Morgan Stanley calculated that expectations for stock returns were at their lowest level since before the financial crisis.

Moreover, if we look at periods when the economy was in an expansion, trend uniformity was negative, and the S&P price / peak - earnings ratio was above its historical average of 14 (it's currently 21), the average total return drops to a -8 % annualized rate.

It is wishful thinking to imagine that the most extreme economic, debt and investment bubble in history was corrected by a mild economic downturn, a market decline that leaves stocks at 21 times peak earnings (higher than at the 1929 and 1987 peaks), and just a few large - scale defaults from a corporate debt position which continues to claim a record share of operating earnings to finance.

The favorable market performance associated with many historical economic expansions is fully accounted for by 1) favorable post-recession valuations, with the S&P 500 averaging less than 9 times prior peak earnings at the recession low, expanding to just over 11 times peak earnings in the first year of the bull market, and 2) favorable trend uniformity, which typically emerges almost immediately in the form of a powerful breadth thrust off of a bear market low, and is confirmed within a few weeks by much broader trend uniformity.

Quarterly U.S. earnings have been strong, but investors said worries are increasing that corporate profits are at a peak, with estimated year - over-year profit growth for S&P 500 companies above 25 percent, according to Thomson Reuters data.

The most extreme readings prior to the current cycle occurred at the 1929, 1972 and 1987 peaks, all at 20 times record earnings.

Back at the peak in 2000, the S&P 500 Index traded at roughly 30 times trailing earnings, while the Nasdaq was fetching a sobering 175 times.

Add these factors together, and investors face a long term total return of 7 % annually if P / E multiples remain fixed at record highs, and earnings grow along the peak of their long - term growth channel.

Higgins adds that valuations were much more frothy: «Back [in the 90s], the price / 12m trailing operating earnings ratio of the S&P 500 climbed to around 30 at its peak, which was roughly double its level in 1994.

The electric - car maker's stock TSLA, -5.55 % has slumped 16 % since its closing peak this year at $ 357.42 on Feb. 26 through Tuesday, compared to the S&P 500's SPX, -0.23 % 4.5 % loss, and talk is getting ugly ahead of Wednesday's first - quarter earnings report.

While the current price / peak - earnings multiple is already at an elevated level above 18, what I'll call the «P / E equivalent» multiples on other fundamentals are: 21 on the basis of book values, nearly 23 on the basis of enterprise value / EBITDA (which factors in the increasing share of debt on corporate balance sheets), over 25 on the basis of revenues, and 29 on the basis of dividends (largely because dividend payout ratios remain relatively low even on the basis of normalized earnings).

Bill's main point here is that with the exception of the 1973 - 1974 bear market, the downturns that ended at single - digit price - to - peak earnings multiples also started at below - average multiples.

As usual, I don't place too much emphasis on this sort of forecast, but to the extent that I make any comments at all about the outlook for 2006, the bottom line is this: 1) we can't rule out modest potential for stock appreciation, which would require the maintenance or expansion of already high price / peak earnings multiples; 2) we also should recognize an uncomfortably large potential for market losses, particularly given that the current bull market has now outlived the median and average bull, yet at higher valuations than most bulls have achieved, a flat yield curve with rising interest rate pressures, an extended period of internal divergence as measured by breadth and other market action, and complacency at best and excessive bullishness at worst, as measured by various sentiment indicators; 3) there is a moderate but still not compelling risk of an oncoming recession, which would become more of a factor if we observe a substantial widening of credit spreads and weakness in the ISM Purchasing Managers Index in the months ahead, and; 4) there remains substantial potential for U.S. dollar weakness coupled with «unexpectedly» persistent inflation pressures, particularly if we do observe economic weakness.

There is so much worry that this is as good as it gets, that we are at the peak of the earnings cycle, suggesting that earnings will now begin to go down and I do n`t think that is the case.

Earnings are the most volatile of these, sometimes growing from trough - to - peak at rates approaching 20 % annually, and sometimes plunging from peak - to - trough at rates approaching -20 % annually.

Presently, long - term bonds provide nowhere to hide, and median equity valuations exceed those at the 2000 peak on price / earnings, price / revenue, and enterprise value / EBITDA.

The price to peak earnings of the S&P 500 would top out at 33 in December of 1999.

Looking at periods where the price to peak earnings was above 19 and inflation and bond yields were below 2.5 percent and 4.5 percent, respectively, stocks had an average seven - year return of 6 percent.

The S&P 500 registered a record high after an advancing half - cycle since 2009 that is historically long - in - the - tooth and already exceeds the valuation peaks set at every cyclical extreme in history but 2000 on the S&P 500 (across all stocks, current median price / earnings, price / revenue and enterprise value / EBITDA multiples already exceed the 2000 extreme).

How did stocks perform if they were bought at a price to peak earnings multiple above 19?

Even at the 1929 peak, the price / peak earnings ratio on the S&P 500 index was just over 20.

Assume also that by 2010, the price / peak earnings multiple simply touches its historical average of 14 (forget that the typical multiple has been less than 10 when earnings have been at the top of that peak - to - peak growth channel - let's just assume the multiple touches 14).

By contrast, Microsoft had a price - to - earnings ratio of 83 at the 1999 peak.

At the market's actual 2000 peak, valuations were so high that even a future price / peak earnings ratio of 20 could have been expected to result in a nearly zero annualized returns over the following 10 years.

The price / peak earnings ratio is equal to the raw P / E when earnings are at a new high, as they are today, and is otherwise lower than the raw P / E.

S&P 500 earnings are presently right at the 6 % line that connects historical earnings peaks across economic cycles going back cleanly over the past century.

I'll leave it to others to chime in whether forward P / E's are useful or not given the fact they typically overstate earnings and I'll ignore that earnings may be at a cyclical peak (more on the latter here).

HOG has trended lower since and at last week's low, just ahead of Tuesday morning's earnings report, had dropped over 28 % from the January peak.

The tech - heavy NASDAQ Composite Index more than tripled in value from 1998 through 2000, with a price - to - earnings ratio of more than 200 times earnings at its peak.

With the S&P 500 down about 11 % from its peak and having tested its bottom again in March, the market is trading at about ~ 16.8 X 12 - month forward estimated earnings.

In the week ahead, we get a peak at consumer's strength with full - year earnings reports from JB Hi - Fi and Wesfarmers, along with Commonwealth Bank and Telstra.

In 2004, the company's earnings from the system peaked at nearly $ 30 million, and at many schools, it has become a permanent fixture.

On the subject of valuations, I believe that the peak level of earnings seen in the past market cycle was somewhat high, so I'd agree with Bill Gross at PIMCO in the sense that we're not likely to see that level of earnings as the «norm.»

Likewise, Aqua America (WTR) saw its return on invested capital peak at 4.74 % in the most recent trailing twelve month period, and trades at 18.3 times forward earnings estimates.

If you can get them off the family payroll, your 50s can be a good stage for saving because your expenses may be lower and your earnings could be higher if you're at the peak of your career.