Of note, the new Chinese muni bonds were priced tight at issuance and they continue to trade
at tight credit spreads above the sovereign bond yields.
Not exact matches
But with the Fed looking
at more rate hikes and
credit spreads already near their
tightest levels of the cycle, it's tough to see how liquidity would become much more loose than it was two months ago.
By looking
at how the
credit spread for a category of bonds is changing, you can get an idea of how «cheap» (wide
credit spread) or «expensive» (
tight credit spread) the market for those bonds is related to historical
credit spreads.
As you can see the
credit spread for JCPenney Bonds
at 769 basis points is much «wider» than the
spread for Exxon Mobile bonds
at 119 basis points (a much «
tighter» or «narrow»
spread than JCPenny).
U.S. high - yield bond
spreads are 34 basis points, or hundredths of a percentage point,
tighter; cover
spreads are 21 basis points
tighter, and emerging - market
credit excess returns are
at 3.6 %.
At the same time, we are neutral on U.S.
credit amid
tight spreads and increasing sensitivity to rate rises, and prefer up - in - quality exposures.
At market tops, typically
credit spreads are
tight, but they have been
tight for several years, while seemingly cheap leverage builds up.
Reaching for yield always has risks, but the penalties are most intense
at the top of the cycle, when
credit spreads are
tight, and the Fed's loosening cycle is nearing its end.
Although
at tight valuations,
credit and mortgage - backed securities provide a yield
spread over Treasuries that can add meaningful additional income over time.
Regardless, there are many catalysts: a
tight labor market, wage growth picking up, a stock market
at or near record highs, housing values rising quickly, high commercial real estate prices, low cap rates and narrow
credit spreads.