Look
at valuation metrics such as price - to - earnings and price - to - book, and compare those valuations to comparable firms.
Not exact matches
Valuation metrics suggest the market is priced
at a high level yet liquidity abounds and its influence is intense.
For example you could say, «Our competitor with similar
metrics recently got financed
at a $ 20 million pre-money
valuation, here is why I think we're better...» Setting terms to the investor by saying something like, «I won't take less than this
valuation» is the surest way to turn off a potential investor.
Stocks trade
at a high
valuation on most
metrics including relative to history, relative to interest rates, and relative to inflation.
Looking
at ROIC and PEBV help you to identify winners and losers because those
metrics cut through the noise and artificial accounting constructs that are
at the heart of the
valuation methodologies used by many investors.
While a number of simple measures of
valuation have also been useful over the years, even
metrics such as price - to - peak earnings have been skewed by the unusual profit margins we observed
at the 2007 peak, which were about 50 % above the historical norm - reflecting the combination of booming and highly leveraged financial sector profits as well as wide margins in cyclical and commodity - oriented industries.
However, there is one
valuation metric, price - to - book («P / B»), that,
at first, appears to correlate strongly with ROE.
In the presence of a broad range of reliable
valuation metrics uniformly
at more than twice their historical norms, coupled with the most severe overvalued, overbought, overbullish, rising - yield syndrome we define, it is instructive how shorter - term action has evolved near those points.
Stocks can see their PE multiples expand and contract in a manner that has almost nothing to do with changes in EPS, which makes looking
at these
metrics a poor indicator of
valuation or future returns.
For instance, as measured by price - to - earnings (P / E) and price - to - book (P / B)
valuations metrics, EM stocks continue to trade
at a roughly 30 % discount to the broader global equity market (source: MSCI, as of 3/31/2015).
There is some downside, such as the fact that the company is solely dependent on the oil and gas industry, whereas some peers have also diversified into high - margin industrial and specialty products, but shares trade
at comparable
valuation metrics to peers nonetheless.
We composed a blend of five key
valuation metrics — including forward price - to - earnings ratios and price - to - book value — and examined how strong the relationship was between starting
valuations — or
valuations at the time of purchase — and the variability of subsequent U.S. dollar returns over time.
Other
metrics suggest
valuations are
at least fair.
European equities are not that cheap anymore by a number of
valuation metrics; they are trading
at an average of about 17 times earnings, which is not a wide undervaluation.1 In my view, the main reason to invest in European equities is the potential for, or the expectation of, a rise in corporate earnings that would be driven by the improving economic environment.
Use buybacks in combination with
valuation metrics to ensure management is repurchasing
at a discount.
I totally agree with you and with Buffett; nonetheless there's one question, that came to my mind regarding market
valuations: Assuming bonds and interest rates go even lower as they are today,
at which level (pe ratio or Shiller pe ratio — or whatever
metric you'd like to take) would I call the market of today a bubble?
We have found price - to - sales to be a useful
valuation metric within the retail industry, and given Amazon's growth comes largely
at the expense of traditional retailers, we believed Amazon should be priced
at a higher ratio of sales than its competition.
Knowing how stocks are priced historically relative to some
metric like earnings or cash flows is far more instructive than knowing whether stocks are
at an all time high or not (we've addressed the predictive utility of stock
valuations in several posts, including here and here).
If this type of option is completely off the table, you're basically just left with a situation where it's your negotiation skills vs the remaining manager, and that (assuming you have little to no regard for anything but making the most money from the deal), becomes much more like a poker game of trying to work out which
valuation metrics they will be responsive too, what weaknesses you feel they have and hammering away
at them as hard as possible while trying to not show any of your own weaknesses.
We composed a blend of five key
valuation metrics — including forward price - to - earnings ratios and price - to - book value — and examined how strong the relationship was between starting
valuations — or
valuations at the time of purchase — and the variability of subsequent U.S. dollar returns over time.
Just about every
valuation metric you can look
at is currently well below the five - year average, which is somewhat warranted in light of slowing growth.
Colin McWey, CFA:
At Heartland we have a traditional value style that focuses on a few key
valuation metrics:
Although the 2015 market presents nothing quite so drastic, there are still companies trading
at valuations far in excess of what is merited when you take a deep look
at the growth projections, balance sheet, and historical
valuation metrics.
But to close I will say, look
at a full range of
valuation and performance
metrics when buying a stock, and consider the industry dynamics to understand what matters most given the maturity of the industry.
The article cites comments by columnist Mark Hulbert, who refers to
valuation metrics such as P / E, price - book, price - sales and price - dividend ratios as weak indicators of market tops but adds that we ignore them «
at our peril, since it's also true that almost all bull market tops in history... Read More
It's trading
at a 6.6 x P / E-ratio while the other
valuation metrics are as follows:
As I mentioned earlier, the median price - earnings ratios (P / E) and price - sales ratios (P / S) actually surmounted the peaks
at the end of the last two bull market cycles — the
metrics went beyond the
valuation peaks hit in 2000 and in 2007.
The value factor formed on B / P is likely to load on low profitability / junk companies, whereas the aggregate
valuation metric may be better
at identifying quality and thus may do a better job of predicting the subsequent return.
At the other extreme,
valuation metrics need not have any effect on equity returns if those returns all come from price appreciation (capital gains).
However, the shareholder yield strategy benefits from a big bias which is that the portfolio, across almost any
valuation metric, is trading
at a discount to the overall market.
Value Stocks: Stocks that appear to be trading
at a discount to their intrinsic worth, as measured by various different
valuation metrics.
Brian Peery: Looking
at U.S. equities, many
valuation metrics are, on average, currently above historical norms.
Even if they did, and you value the company
at an appropriate P / E and / or P / S multiple based on those
metrics, I'd be hard pressed to come up with a
valuation much higher than today's market price.
Looking
at the other major defense contractors it appears that Excelis»
valuation metrics compare favorably.
If you prefer some pie - in - the - sky, just look back to peak figures and estimate a potential
valuation if that kind of performance can ever be revisited... Vs. the relevant Peak
metrics, Richland currently trades
at a 1.8 P / E, a 0.4 P / S, and a Dividend Yield of 66 %!
in late June, I thought I'd celebrate with a more in - depth series looking
at my portfolio construction (i.e. approach to stock - picking), allocation &
valuation metrics.
The Ostriches aren't concerned with
valuation metrics or Stein's Law, and let's face it, they've been right to stick their head in the sand —
at least so far.
If you add in some quality
metrics (eg, to filter out miners over-investing), this tends to throw up situations where
metrics like ROE may have been impeded by some temporary setback (which might affect your
valuation models negatively), but where the underlying cash flow / quality of earnings remains strong, or small growing companies where cash flow is improving
at a faster rate than earnings, and it's just a matter of time before earnings (and therefore
valuation) catch up.
Chris Turner has a guest post
at Doug Short's Advisor Perspectives called When Warren Buffett Talks... People Listen examining Warren Buffett's favored market
valuation metric: Market Value divided by Gross National Product.
In the video I will take a look
at Lowe's
valuation relative to several important fundamental
metrics.
In my mind the dollar is severly
at risk to rising inflation, which changes many popular
valuation metrics, yet stocks as an asset class should benefit in some ways as they represent claims to real assets whose earnings should grow with inflation.
I totally agree with you and with Buffett; nonetheless there's one question, that came to my mind regarding market
valuations: Assuming bonds and interest rates go even lower as they are today,
at which level (pe ratio or Shiller pe ratio — or whatever
metric you'd like to take) would I call the market of today a bubble?
If the Board were to apply the same
valuation metrics to its own stock as it did to the recently completed acquisition of Alliance Systems Inc., they would undoubtedly conclude that
at these price levels the Company's shares represent an equal or greater value than Alliance Systems.
One can also look back to peak figures and speculate on a potential
valuation if that kind of performance can ever be revisited... Versus the relevant Peak
metrics, Richland currently trades
at a 2.2 P / E, a 0.5 P / S, and a Dividend Yield of 54 %!
Relying on these
metrics, one can quickly arrive
at a very similar
valuation for Fortress» business.
If the finding that stocks were priced
at three times fair value in 2000 were an illusion, the P / E10 level (Shiller's
valuation metric) would tell us nothing about where stock prices would be in 10 years or in 20 years.
There are some stocks which may appear cheap because they are trading
at a low
valuation metrics such as PE, price to book value ratio, cash flow ratio etc..
Long - term challenges in its core business segments along with value destroying management are two reasons for these
metrics grinding lower but
at a certain point,
valuation can become rather compelling.
Set up a
valuation metric off of book or sales, since they don't move as much as earnings, and then offer to buy back shares
at a multiple of the
metric that you think represents intrinsic value.
Table 2 shows
valuation metrics for U.S. stocks and bonds
at the outset of each of these investment periods.