So, when you are looking at relative valuations, always compare like - for - like and look
at valuations of stocks that operate in the same economic sector.
Not exact matches
A lot
of the results in these charts can be explained by a simple factor:
stock valuations at the end
of the period were either in a bubble or a bust.
That means that Snap
stock will be insanely expensive:
At a $ 24 billion
valuation, Snap shares will have a price - to - sales ratio
of 59, making it far richer than Facebook
stock and other social media companies — and likely the most expensive tech IPO ever.
One person familiar with the matter said that a group
of investors including SoftBank, Dragoneer Investment Group and General Atlantic would be allowed to buy $ 1 billion to $ 1.25 billion
of new Uber shares
at a company
valuation of $ 69 billion and 14 to 17 %
of stock from current investors
at a discounted
valuation.
That amounts to about 1.2 %
of all shares outstanding, which could be worth more than $ 300 million if the company is valued
at $ 25 billion (its last reported private
valuation) when it goes public — and a lot more than that over time if the
stock goes up.
During that earlier period, American business earned an average
of 11 percent or so on equity capital employed and
stocks, in aggregate, sold
at valuations far above that equity capital (book value), averaging over 150 cents on the dollar.
With an aging bull market in the U.S. nearing the end
of its seventh year
at press time, it's difficult to find safety in cheap
stocks; even formerly stodgy dividend payers now trade
at dangerously expensive
valuations.
Even with a spike in its
stock price over today's news, Zynga's market capitalization currently stands
at $ 2.44 billion, far below its IPO
valuation of $ 7 billion.
So you may say «we are raising $ 1 million and are offering investors preferred
stock at a $ 3 million pre-money
valuation» along with a brief description
of the business but that's effectively it.
Glassman noted that unlike market securities, including
stocks, which have an accepted
valuation at time
of sale, collectibles like artwork or wine may not be eligible for a deduction up to the current market value.
At Lululemon's
stock peak in the summer
of 2011, the yoga - and running - gear maker commanded a market
valuation that was 350 % higher than rival Under Armour.
Given that
valuations were already rich when the VIX, a commonly used measure
of S&P 500 volatility, was
at 10, a doubling
of volatility suggests
stocks should be trading closer to 16 or 17 times earnings, not 21.
His company, Snap Inc., debuted on the New York
Stock Exchange
at a
valuation of about $ 24 billion.
At a valuation of $ 19 billion, Snap stock would trade at 47 times sales, not quite as sky high as the price - to - sales ratio of 62 that we previously compute
At a
valuation of $ 19 billion, Snap
stock would trade
at 47 times sales, not quite as sky high as the price - to - sales ratio of 62 that we previously compute
at 47 times sales, not quite as sky high as the price - to - sales ratio
of 62 that we previously computed.
«While the
stock at its current
valuation is discounting the end
of the Yieldco business model, we believe that management has a nice cushion
of cash and several options to ride through this market dislocation until cost
of raising equity for Yieldcos normalizes,» RBC Capital analysts said.
In answering this question, as my co-author Terry Simpson and I write in the new Market Perspectives paper, «Assessing the Value
of Valuations,» it's helpful to look at what today's valuations can tell us about the possible distribution of future U.S. stock marke
Valuations,» it's helpful to look
at what today's
valuations can tell us about the possible distribution of future U.S. stock marke
valuations can tell us about the possible distribution
of future U.S.
stock market returns.
When all other things are equal,
valuation ratios are a good way to quickly compare the relative value
of a
stock against others, as well as to look
at the relative value
of a
stock over time.
Understand also that the evidence pointing to steep market risk over the completion
of this cycle is quite robust, as the
valuation criteria in the overvalued, overbought, overbullish syndromes we now observe would be satisfied even if
stocks were significantly lower than they are
at present.
One popular criticism
of market - cap - weighted
stock - market indexes is that they reinforce overvaluation, and if you are worried about occasional oddities in Chinese
stocks —
stocks that go up by their daily limit every day for weeks after they go public, for instance — then adding those
stocks to international indexes
at this particular point in the
valuation cycle might worry you.
While
stocks have a terminal value beyond a 10 - year period, the effects
of interest rates and nominal growth on those projections largely cancel out because higher nominal GDP growth over a given 10 - year horizon is correlated with both higher interest rates and generally lower market
valuations at the end
of that period.
Given the flaws in Netflix's business and the market's increasing awareness
of them, holders
of NFLX are taking imprudent risk with the
stock at anywhere close to its current
valuation.
At Berkshire Hathaway's recent annual shareholders meeting, an investor asked Buffett about the relevance of two popular measures of stock market value: 1) market cap - to - GDP, which Buffett once heralded as «probably the best single measure of where valuations stand at any given moment» and 2) the cyclically - adjusted price - earnings ratio (CAPE), which was made famous by Nobel prize winner Robert Shiller and was seen as accurately predicting the dot - com bubble and the housing bubbl
At Berkshire Hathaway's recent annual shareholders meeting, an investor asked Buffett about the relevance
of two popular measures
of stock market value: 1) market cap - to - GDP, which Buffett once heralded as «probably the best single measure
of where
valuations stand
at any given moment» and 2) the cyclically - adjusted price - earnings ratio (CAPE), which was made famous by Nobel prize winner Robert Shiller and was seen as accurately predicting the dot - com bubble and the housing bubbl
at any given moment» and 2) the cyclically - adjusted price - earnings ratio (CAPE), which was made famous by Nobel prize winner Robert Shiller and was seen as accurately predicting the dot - com bubble and the housing bubble.
It might sound clever to abandon aspects
of a diversified portfolio
at times when you're worried about rising interest rates,
stock market
valuations or geopolitical events.
Stocks can see their PE multiples expand and contract in a manner that has almost nothing to do with changes in EPS, which makes looking
at these metrics a poor indicator
of valuation or future returns.
«
At 15x and 11x NTM EPS and FCF, the
stock is trading near the upper - end
of its recent
valuation range and we believe it is tough to expect the multiple to expand,» wrote Lamba
of Apple.
When we look
at the five FAANG
stocks of Facebook Inc. (FB), Apple Inc. (AAPL), Alphabet Inc. (GOOGL), Netflix Inc. (NFLX), and Amazon.com Inc. (AMZN), it's only Amazon and Netflix that trade
at very high forward
valuations.
Business professors Mai Iskandar - Datta from Wayne State University in Detroit and Yonghong Jia
at Governors State University in Chicago recently concluded in a joint paper that «a clawback provision in executive compensation contracts is an effective governance mechanism» and that «shareholders
of adopting firms experience statistically significant positive
stock -
valuation consequences.»
It's expected to raise about $ 10 billion
at a market
valuation of $ 80 billion or more, according Cate Cadell and Julie Zhu
of Reuters, who say it's China's biggest tech I.P.O. since Alibaba — a huge win for the Hong Kong
Stock Exchange.
In terms
of valuation, Valeant Pharmaceuticals
stock currently trades
at TTM price to sales value
of 0.58 x and price to book value
of 1.40 x.
Sellers
at these levels may find themselves scrambling to repurchase
stock as that occurs, particularly in view
of current
valuations (even adjusted for the impact
of an ongoing recession).
In any event, I'm pleased with the overall behavior
of our
stock holdings, and I expect that we'll have plenty
of opportunity to increase our exposure to market fluctuations
at more appropriate
valuations.
Accordingly, the Strategic Growth Fund is now back to a fully - hedged investment stance - meaning that the Fund continues to be fully invested in a broadly diversified group
of stocks that appear to have some combination
of favorable
valuation and favorable market action, while
at the same time, the Fund carries an offsetting short position
of equal size in the S&P 500 and Russell 2000 indices (using option combinations that mimic short futures contracts) intended to mute the impact
of broad market fluctuations on the Fund.
3) The Hussman Strategic Growth Fund has gradually shifted from smaller to larger capitalization holdings in recent years, not out
of any necessity due to Fund size (
at the Fund's current asset level, we could easily populate the Fund with mid-caps if it was optimal to do so), but precisely because large
stocks generally carry the best relative
valuations.
Given the absence
of a public trading market
of our common
stock, and in accordance with the American Institute
of Certified Public Accountants Accounting and
Valuation Guide,
Valuation of Privately - Held Company Equity Securities Issued as Compensation, our board
of directors exercised reasonable judgment and considered numerous and subjective factors to determine the best estimate
of fair value
of our common
stock, including independent third - party
valuations of our common
stock; the prices
at which we sold shares
of our convertible preferred
stock to outside investors in arms - length transactions; the rights, preferences, and privileges
of our convertible preferred
stock relative to those
of our common
stock; our operating results, financial position, and capital resources; current business conditions and projections; the lack
of marketability
of our common
stock; the hiring
of key personnel and the experience
of our management; the introduction
of new products; our stage
of development and material risks related to our business; the fact that the option grants involve illiquid securities in a private company; the likelihood
of achieving a liquidity event, such as an initial public offering or a sale
of our company given the prevailing market conditions and the nature and history
of our business; industry trends and competitive environment; trends in consumer spending, including consumer confidence; and overall economic indicators, including gross domestic product, employment, inflation and interest rates, and the general economic outlook.
Our indicated BEV
at each
valuation date was allocated to the shares
of preferred
stock, common
stock, warrant and options using the Black - Scholes option - pricing model.
For long - term investors the most important manifestation
of that trend is a U.S.
stock market trading
at elevated
valuations that do not discount much in the way
of bad news.
The purchase price per share in the tender offer represented an excess to the fair value
of the Company's outstanding common
stock and Series A through Series F convertible preferred
stock, as determined by the Company's most recent
valuation of its capital
stock at time
of the transaction.
In mid-February Russia recapitalized the Moscow
Stock Exchange by selling $ 1 billion
of shares in an IPO
of the exchange — giving it a value
of $ 4.2 billion
at $ 1.83 a share, second only to the
valuation of the London
Stock Exchange.
For instance, as measured by price - to - earnings (P / E) and price - to - book (P / B)
valuations metrics, EM
stocks continue to trade
at a roughly 30 % discount to the broader global equity market (source: MSCI, as
of 3/31/2015).
Since the start
of 2016, the tech - heavy NASDAQ is down about 15 %, and many
stocks that traded
at lofty
valuations in 2015 have been hit extremely hard.
We allow that short - term interest rates may be pegged well below historical norms for several more years, and we know that for every year that short - term interest rates are held
at zero (rather than a historically normal level
of 4 %), one can «justify» equity
valuations about 4 % above historical norms — a premium that removes that same 4 % from prospective future
stock returns.
He said the following about Sun's peak
valuation in 2000 (it was one
of the
stocks trading
at more than ten times sales
at the time):
As you can see below, these forward
valuation multiples make the
stock look attractive compared to the kind
of multiples it's traded
at in recent years.
In an attempt to cast light on this issue, my colleagues
at Plexus Asset Management have updated a previous multi-year comparison
of the price - earnings (PE) ratios
of the S&P 500 Index (as a measure
of stock valuations) and the forward real returns (considering total returns, i.e. capital movements plus dividends).
Frankly, the
stock was
at that price just a few months ago — after it had already fallen off
of a high
valuation.
Essentially the company was spending an unsustainable amount
of money to grow revenue
at levels that would meet the lofty expectations embedded in the
stock's
valuation.
As usual, I don't place too much emphasis on this sort
of forecast, but to the extent that I make any comments
at all about the outlook for 2006, the bottom line is this: 1) we can't rule out modest potential for
stock appreciation, which would require the maintenance or expansion
of already high price / peak earnings multiples; 2) we also should recognize an uncomfortably large potential for market losses, particularly given that the current bull market has now outlived the median and average bull, yet
at higher
valuations than most bulls have achieved, a flat yield curve with rising interest rate pressures, an extended period
of internal divergence as measured by breadth and other market action, and complacency
at best and excessive bullishness
at worst, as measured by various sentiment indicators; 3) there is a moderate but still not compelling risk
of an oncoming recession, which would become more
of a factor if we observe a substantial widening
of credit spreads and weakness in the ISM Purchasing Managers Index in the months ahead, and; 4) there remains substantial potential for U.S. dollar weakness coupled with «unexpectedly» persistent inflation pressures, particularly if we do observe economic weakness.
As I've noted before, the duration
of stocks is over 60 years here (
at normal historical
valuations, the duration has been closer to 25 years).
When an index fund or ETF receives inflows, the fund essentially has no choice but to invest in
stocks based on their index allocation
at that moment, without any consideration
of fundamentals,
valuation or anything else.
This isn't to say that
stocks can't deliver adequate returns between now and some narrow set
of future dates, but to expect that
stocks purchased
at these levels will deliver attractive long - term returns in general requires the assumption that current
valuations will remain elevated into the indefinite future.