By using computerized programs such as PC Bond, we can look
at yield curve changes at similar points in past economic cycles in order to help us project future changes.
Not exact matches
If
yield curves moving in a parallel direction means the monthly
changes at different points in the
curve never vary by more than 0.15 %, it means that monthly
changes in
yield curves are parallel roughly 70 % of the time.
Finally, modified duration is an approximation of the price
change /
yield change relationship, since it is essentially the straight - line tangent to a
curve at a certain point on the
curve (i.e., the derivative
at a point on the
curve).
This
yield curve shape tends to happen over my survey period
at a time when
change is about to happen (4 of 7 times — 1971, 1977, 1993 and 2004), and one where the FOMC will raise rates aggressively (3 of 7 times — 1977, 1993 and 2004) after fed funds have been left too low for too long.