With
the atmospheric changes occurring these days, however, this cycle could happen in centuries.
Not exact matches
During the PETM,
atmospheric carbon dioxide more than doubled and global temperatures rose by 5 degrees Celsius, an increase that is comparable with the
change that may
occur by later next century on modern Earth.
«The
change in flux described by our model happens over extremely long time periods, and it would be a mistake to think that these processes that are bringing about any of the
atmospheric changes are
occurring due to anthropomorphic climate
change,» he said.
«These findings add to mounting evidence suggesting that there are sweet spots or «windows of opportunity» within climate space where so - called boundary conditions, such as the level of
atmospheric CO2 or the size of continental ice sheets, make abrupt
change more likely to
occur.
There is, therefore, much current interest in how coccolithophore calcification might be affected by climate
change and ocean acidification, both of which
occur as
atmospheric carbon dioxide increases.
The regions where droughts have
occurred seem to be determined largely by
changes in SSTs, especially in the tropics, through associated
changes in the
atmospheric circulation and precipitation.
Each time a switch
occurs, the
changes to ocean and
atmospheric circulation affect temperature and rainfall patterns across the globe.
Human - caused climate
change has been
occurring over the last 200 yr, largely because of the combustion of fossil fuels and subsequent increase of
atmospheric CO2.
By this time,
atmospheric CO2 concentration will probably have become sufficiently high (and we will be committed to further increases) that a climatic
change significantly larger than any which has
occurred in the past century could be unavoidable.»
For example, the moods of dogs that live in areas where hurricanes
occur can be impacted by the
change in
atmospheric pressure.
Do you really think the fact that waters are warmer and
atmospheric moisture content is higher now due to man - made global warming (not to mention the «blocking high» over Greenland due to Arctic climate
change) may be less of an influence on Hurricane Sandy than some other currently unobserved
changes to our climate that
occurred 3000 years ago?
The claim of two years of 3 ppmv / yr
occurred because of the way the CO2 time series straddled almost perfectly those two years (2015 - 6) along with the long term anthro
atmospheric rate of
change.
Because melting is so much more energetically efficient than sublimation, the main way that moderate
changes in
atmospheric conditions — including air temperature — affect ablation is through
changing the number of hours during which melting
occurs, and the amount of energy available for melting.
It is no coincidence that shifts in ocean and
atmospheric indices
occur at the same time as
changes in the trajectory of global surface temperature.
Although Holocene climate events are relatively minor on a glacial / interglacial perspective, the small Holocene
changes in the polar vortex and
atmospheric storminess documented by O'Brien et al. (1995) would probably cause widespread disruption to human society if they were to
occur in the future (Keigwin and Boyle 2000:1343).»
Here's my uneducated question — while I respect Gavin's comments about not abusing the science, it seems to me that many measurable indicators of climate
change are (to the extent I can tell)
occurring / progressing / worsening faster than predicted by most models, whether we're talking about
atmospheric CO2 levels, arctic ice melting, glacial retreat, etc..
One minute
change in the
atmospheric regime can slowly effect further
changes in the system and the chain reaction can
occur, which, in the end, could shift a jet stream a few kilometres and create conditions possible for storm intensification, which may result in the flooding of an area where the storm would not have been or would have been greatly minimised.
``... a second - order relationship may be more likely (i.e. that cloud
changes only
occur with GCR
changes if
atmospheric conditions are suitable).
The Antarctic ice increase is
occurring in a limited region near the Ross Sea, and is related to the ozone hole through a fairly complicated
change in
atmospheric dynamics.
Rapid
changes of
atmospheric composition may have
occurred at least occasionally.
As a youth I participated in many of my father's experiments, observing first - hand the benefits of
atmospheric CO2 on plant life and the manifold problems with the model - based theory of climate
change, all of which events
occurred long, long before James Hansen stood in front of the U.S. Senate and brought the CO2 debate to the eyes of the public in 1988.
In their latest Science paper submittal Jim Hansen, et al. argue that we must reduce
atmospheric CO2 to below 350 ppm because so - called «slow feedbacks» such as
changes in ice sheet albedo are
occurring much faster than expected.
Exceptions could
occur in areas with the smallest reductions of extreme cold in western North America, the North Atlantic and southern Europe and Asia due to
atmospheric circulation
changes.
Oceans are wide and
changes of
atmospheric CO2 concentration has its influence everywhere while supply from weathering
occurs on the coasts and through the river discharges.
But the evidence shows this can't be true; temperature
changes before CO2 in every record of any duration for any time period; CO2 variability does not correlate with temperature at any point in the last 600 million years;
atmospheric CO2 levels are currently at the lowest level in that period; in the 20th century most warming
occurred before 1940 when human production of CO2 was very small; human production of CO2 increased the most after 1940 but global temperatures declined to 1985; from 2000 global temperatures declined while CO2 levels increased; and any reduction in CO2 threatens plant life, oxygen production, and therefore all life on the planet.
In the real world the most obvious and most common reason for a
change in
atmospheric density
occurs naturally when the oceans are in warming mode and solar irradiation is high as during the period 1975 to 1998.
This thesis presents the results of several general circulation model simulations aimed at studying the effect of ocean circulation
changes when they
occur in conjunction with increased
atmospheric trace gas concentrations.
Some
changes occurring are
atmospheric density
changes which would effect the insulation value of the atmosphere.
As far as we know, the «airborne fraction» (percentage of emitted CO2 remaining
atmospheric) has not been
changing greatly over the past century, and if any
change is
occurring, the fraction is perhaps increasing very slightly due to greater saturation of the oceanic sink.
Indeed, this is why I have repeatedly said to you: «Any assessment of the causes of the rise of
atmospheric CO2 concentration over a period of years requires assessment of the
changes that
occur each year (because the annual increase to CO2 in the atmosphere is the residual of the seasonal
changes to CO2 in the atmosphere).»
Nor does it seem a coincidence that shifts in ocean and
atmospheric indices
occur at the same time as
changes in the trajectory of global surface temperature.
For example if Seager and Battisti are correct than a
change in
atmospheric ciruculation
occurs, this would alter the moisture source and potentially the isotope signature of the snowpack falling on the GIS.
The authors use a two - dimensional
atmospheric model to simulate the nitrate and ozone
changes associated with the A.D. 1908 Tunguska event where a bolide airburst
occurred over Siberia, Russia.
It would have to be shown that the recent temperature record can be statistically significantly distinguished from the statistically significant warming signal, which can be detected when performing an analysis that uses data over multiple decades, from the mid-1970ies to present, or from the mid-1970ies up to the time, when the alleged
change in the behavior of the global
atmospheric temperature is supposed to have
occurred.
It has been established experimentally that, at ca 4.0 ka BP, there
occurred a global
change in the structure of
atmospheric circulation, which coincided in time with the discharge of glacial masses from Greenland to North Atlantic and a solar activity minimum.
The abrupt and pronounced historical temperature and sea level rise events
occurred without any significant
changes in
atmospheric CO2 levels.
«The authors write that «the El Niño - Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is a naturally
occurring fluctuation,» whereby «on a timescale of two to seven years, the eastern equatorial Pacific climate varies between anomalously cold (La Niña) and warm (El Niño) conditions,» and that «these swings in temperature are accompanied by
changes in the structure of the subsurface ocean, variability in the strength of the equatorial easterly trade winds, shifts in the position of
atmospheric convection, and global teleconnection patterns associated with these
changes that lead to variations in rainfall and weather patterns in many parts of the world,» which end up affecting «ecosystems, agriculture, freshwater supplies, hurricanes and other severe weather events worldwide.»»
What it does show if there is a reversal however, like the pause in
atmospheric temperatures, is that those who tie calamity to short time frame
changes must accept that they are wrong when a reversal
occurs in a similar short time frame.
An expanding area of research since the SAR is the consideration of whether climate
change may be realised as preferred modes of non-linear naturally
occurring atmospheric circulation patterns, or so - called weather regimes as proposed by Palmer (1999).
The most definitive 30 - year P trends
occur along the northern Russian border and adjacent to Hudson's Bay (> 75 %
change of a wetter future), likely in response to diminished sea ice cover and resulting increase in
atmospheric moisture, and in some areas of northern Africa and the Middle East (< 35 % chance of wetting, equivalent to > 65 % chance of drying; Fig. 8b).
«Trends in observed
atmospheric water vapour are hampered by inhomogeneities in data records, which
occur when measurement programmes are discontinued because of, for example, the limited lifespans of satellite missions or insufficiently documented or understood
changes in instrumentation.
Singh and her Lamont colleagues research climate
change impacts on weather patterns by analyzing weather trends in daily temperatures, precipitation, and
atmospheric patterns that have
occurred during the past 40 years, in the post-satellite era.
At any rate, it seems likely to us that some major and abrupt
change in the
atmospheric composition and / or molecular structure is
occurring at the tropopause.
Climate
change is present in every single meteorological event, in that these events are
occurring within a baseline
atmospheric environment that has shifted in favor of more intense weather events.
The reasons are several and include: (a) Their emissions levels are very high compared to others; (b) Huge reductions in emissions from existing emissions levels are necessary to achieve safe
atmospheric stabilization levels; and (c) Climate
change damages to some people, not to mention plants, animals, and ecological systems, are already
occurring.
You do not disagree with my point but now throw in
changes in
atmospheric CO2 as evidence that the current rate of warming must have been greater than that
occurring during some 50 + year period of the MWP, when there was no such increase in human GHGs..
Perhaps most important, say the NIPCC authors, the UN's Intergovernmental Panel on Climate
Change has greatly exaggerated the amount of warming that is likely to
occur if
atmospheric CO2 concentrations were to double, to around 800 ppm (0.08 %).
Recognizing that the carbon cycle is very complex, so there are reasons that the simple comparison could be off (going either way of course), the chart suggests that only 20 % of the total anthropogenic CO2 emissions
occurred in the same period where 50 % of the total
change in
atmospheric CO2 concentration were observed.
What seems more interesting is the
change in ocean and
atmospheric circulation that
occurred in the 1998/2001 climate shift — climate shifts are a relatively new concept but one that is central to understanding climate.
The necessary
change being in
atmospheric volume it is clear that circulation
changes will
occur and that leads to my ideas about climate
change that I have already set out extensively.