El Niño is defined by SST anomalies in the eastern tropical Pacific while the Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) is a measure of
the atmospheric circulation response in the Pacific - Indian Ocean region.
Blackport, R. & Kushner, P. J. Isolating
the atmospheric circulation response to Arctic sea ice loss in the coupled climate system.
The atmospheric circulation response seems to be sensitive to the magnitude and geographic pattern of sea - ice loss and, in some cases, to the background climate state.
Not exact matches
Your statement that «Thus it is natural to look at the real world and see whether there is evidence that it behaves in the same way (and it appears to, since model hindcasts of past changes match observations very well)» seems to indicate that you think there will be no changes in ocean
circulation or land use trends, nor any subsequent changes in cloud
responses thereto or other
atmospheric circulation.
Hu, A.X., G.A. Meehl, W.M. Washington, and A. Dai, 2004:
Response of the Atlantic thermohaline
circulation to increased
atmospheric CO2 in a coupled model.
Wood, R.A., A.B. Keen, J.F.B. Mitchell, and J.M. Gregory, 1999: Changing spatial structure of the thermohaline
circulation in
response to
atmospheric CO2 forcing in a climate model.
Stouffer, R.J., and S. Manabe, 2003: Equilibrium
response of thermohaline
circulation to large changes in
atmospheric CO2 concentration.
Gregory, J.M., et al., 2005: A model intercomparison of changes in the Atlantic thermohaline
circulation in
response to increasing
atmospheric CO2 concentration.
The
response of the internal variability of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning
Circulation (MOC) to enhanced
atmospheric greenhouse gas concentrations has been estimated from an ensemble of climate change scenario runs.
In models at least, this kind of
response would be most directly related to increases in stratification due to surface warming, as I understand it, and not directly to the kind of change in
atmospheric circulation discussed in Dian's paper.
Since El Nino also has an important impact on the Asian Summer Monsoon in particular, its hard to know precisely what large - scale changes in
atmospheric circulation are due to the radiative forcing of the eruption itself, and the secondary
response to that eruption of ENSO.
Your statement that «Thus it is natural to look at the real world and see whether there is evidence that it behaves in the same way (and it appears to, since model hindcasts of past changes match observations very well)» seems to indicate that you think there will be no changes in ocean
circulation or land use trends, nor any subsequent changes in cloud
responses thereto or other
atmospheric circulation.
[
Response: In this context it means the downward branch of the
atmospheric Hadley
circulation which exists in the sub-tropics to balance the upward mass flux that occurs near the equator.
All climate models tell us that it is the Arctic sea ice cover that declines first, and that Antarctic ice extent falls only later, and may even (as observed) temporarily increase in
response to changing patterns of
atmospheric circulation.
Bjerknes, 1966: A possible
response of the
atmospheric Hadley
circulation to equatorial anomalies of ocean temperature.
In a recent technical comment, Zhang et al. show that ocean dynamics play a central role in the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO), and the previous claims that «the AMO is a thermodynamic
response of the ocean mixed layer to stochastic
atmospheric forcing, and ocean
circulation changes have no role in causing the AMO» are not justified.
Magnusdottir, G., R. Saravanan and C. Deser, 2003: The modelled
response of the
atmospheric winter
circulation to North Atlantic SST and sea - ice anomalies corresponding to multidecadal trends.
These NAO - induced «book - ends» of future climate trends are very similar to those depicted in the individual simulations shown earlier (Fig. 1), but instead of case studies, they are based on the dominant structure of internal
atmospheric circulation variability across all 40 ensemble members superimposed upon the forced
response.
Forced Rossby waves occur as a
response of the midtroposhere and high - troposphere
atmospheric circulation to the external diabatic and orographic forcing (25, 39, 40), which arises, e.g., from the thermal contrast between land and oceans as well as from mountain ranges.
A shift in
atmospheric circulation in
response to changes in solar activity is broadly consistent with
atmospheric circulation patterns in long - term climate model simulations, and in reanalysis data that assimilate observations from recent solar minima into a climate model.
It is not clear that the world is warming post the 1998/2001 climate shift — that involved a climatically significant step change in albedo as a
response to abrupt changes in ocean and
atmospheric circulation.
The
response of
atmospheric CO2 and climate to the reconstructed variability in solar irradiance and radiative forcing by volcanoes over the last millennium is examined by applying a coupled physical — biogeochemical climate model that includes the Lund - Potsdam - Jena dynamic global vegetation model (LPJ - DGVM) and a simplified analogue of a coupled atmosphere — ocean general
circulation model.
Therefore, climate change is the negative system
response whereby changes in
circulation within an increased or decreased
atmospheric volume effectively prevent changes in surface temperature.
Changes in near - coastal
circulation or biochemistry seem to be altering surface ocean pH more quickly than can be explained by an equilibrium
response to the rising
atmospheric CO2 concentration (Wootton and Pfister, 2012).
There is an «almost immediate»
response,
atmospheric with the roughly 90 day lag, then there is a roughly 27 month lagged
response, that would be coupled atmosphere / ocean
response related to the QBO, then there is a roughly 8.5 to 10 year
response, that would be ocean basin
circulation related.
However, considerable evidence (8 ⇓ ⇓ — 11, 31 ⇓ — 33) simultaneously suggests that the
response of northeastern Pacific
atmospheric circulation to anthropogenic warming is likely to be complex and spatiotemporally inhomogeneous, and that changes in the
atmospheric mean state may not be reflective of changes in the risk of extreme events (including
atmospheric configurations conducive to precipitation extremes).
Motivated by findings that major components of so - called cloud «feedbacks» are best understood as rapid
responses to CO2 forcing (Gregory and Webb in J Clim 21:58 — 71, 2008), the top of atmosphere (TOA) radiative effects from forcing, and the subsequent
responses to global surface temperature changes from all «
atmospheric feedbacks» (water vapour, lapse rate, surface albedo, «surface temperature» and cloud) are examined in detail in a General
Circulation Model.
Wood, R. A., Keen, A. B., Mitchell, J. F. B. & Gregory, J. M. Changing spatial structure of the thermohaline
circulation in
response to
atmospheric CO2 forcing in a climate model.
Researchers investigated the
response of Atlantic Meridional Overturning
Circulation (AMOC) to the rise of
atmospheric CO2 in the NCAR Climate System Model version 3, with the focus on the different
responses under modern and glacial periods.
It is further argued that the transition of vertical
circulation patterns is in
response to adjustments to geostrophic imbalance — an adjustment time scale of 6 — 9 h. Although unproven, we suggest that antecedent rainfall over the alkali desert 2 weeks prior to the event was instrumental in lowering the bulk density of sediments and thereby improved the chances for dust ablation by the
atmospheric disturbance.
Of course, decadal variability in clouds can only be a
response to decadal variability in the surface conditions or
atmospheric circulation that drive cloud formation, because the lifetime of cloud systems is days rather than decades.
Another way to test the importance of
atmospheric changes would be to calculate both the TOA and surface forcing using the satellite measurements, and then impose this transient forcing in a general
circulation model that calculates both the atmosphere and ocean
response.
Ghan's assertion is false that decadal variability in clouds can «only» be a
response to decadal variability in the surface conditions or
atmospheric circulation that drive cloud formation.
The North Atlantic warms in a few months in
response to an El Niño, through changes in
atmospheric circulation (slower trade winds in the tropical North Atlantic, for example).
Changes in the trade winds,
atmospheric circulation, precipitation and associated
atmospheric heating set up extratropical
responses.
Its current dust output is essentially transport - limited, but with expected changes in future
atmospheric circulation in
response to increasing greenhouse gas concentrations, changes to deflation in the Bodélé may impose critical changes on the behavior of the Earth system in
response to the role that dust plays in the biosphere and the sheer quantity emitted from this key region.