Not exact matches
But in the big picture,
hurricane models adeptly forecasted Irma's ultimate path to the Florida Keys nearly a week before it arrived there, says Brian Tang, an
atmospheric scientist at the University at Albany in New York.
However, a confident assessment of human influence on
hurricanes will require further studies using
models and observations, with emphasis on distinguishing natural from human - induced changes in
hurricane activity through their influence on factors such as historical sea surface temperatures, wind shear, and
atmospheric vertical stability.
However, the latest upgrades to the GFDL
hurricane model have led to significant improvements in
hurricane intensity forecasts by better representing the
atmospheric and oceanic physical processes critical for intensity prediction.
This
model, when forced with observed sea surface temperatures and
atmospheric conditions, can reproduce the observed rise in
hurricane counts between 1980 and 2012, along with much of the interannual variability (Figure 5).
The Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory (GFDL) has developed and uses
atmospheric and climate
models for improving the understanding and prediction of
hurricane behavior.
The
models heavily relied upon by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) had not projected this multidecadal stasis in «global warming»; nor (until trained ex post facto) the fall in TS from 1940 - 1975; nor 50 years» cooling in Antarctica (Doran et al., 2002) and the Arctic (Soon, 2005); nor the absence of ocean warming since 2003 (Lyman et al., 2006; Gouretski & Koltermann, 2007); nor the onset, duration, or intensity of the Madden - Julian intraseasonal oscillation, the Quasi-Biennial Oscillation in the tropical stratosphere, El Nino / La Nina oscillations, the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation, or the Pacific Decadal Oscillation that has recently transited from its warming to its cooling phase (oceanic oscillations which, on their own, may account for all of the observed warmings and coolings over the past half - century: Tsoniset al., 2007); nor the magnitude nor duration of multi-century events such as the Mediaeval Warm Period or the Little Ice Age; nor the cessation since 2000 of the previously - observed growth in
atmospheric methane concentration (IPCC, 2007); nor the active 2004
hurricane season; nor the inactive subsequent seasons; nor the UK flooding of 2007 (the Met Office had forecast a summer of prolonged droughts only six weeks previously); nor the solar Grand Maximum of the past 70 years, during which the Sun was more active, for longer, than at almost any similar period in the past 11,400 years (Hathaway, 2004; Solankiet al., 2005); nor the consequent surface «global warming» on Mars, Jupiter, Neptune's largest moon, and even distant Pluto; nor the eerily - continuing 2006 solar minimum; nor the consequent, precipitate decline of ~ 0.8 °C in TS from January 2007 to May 2008 that has canceled out almost all of the observed warming of the 20th century.
Our 2015 study examines the impact of 21st - century projected climate changes (CMIP5, RCP4.5 scenario) on a number of tropical cyclone metrics, using the GFDL
hurricane model to downscale storms in all basins from one of the lower resolution global
atmospheric models mentioned above.