Sentences with phrase «atmospheric model ensemble»
The use of very large atmospheric model ensemble to assess potential anthropogenic influence on the UK summer 2012 high rainfall totals, Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, 94, No 9.
https://www.climateprediction.net/ Not exact matches
Seasonal atmospheric responses to reduced Arctic sea ice in an ensemble of coupled model simulations.
Methods: In these experiments, the research team conducted large ensembles of simulations with two state - of - the - art atmospheric general circulation models by abruptly switching the sea - surface temperature warming on from January 1st to focus on the wintertime circulation adjustment.
A large ensemble of Earth system model simulations, constrained by geological and historical observations of past climate change, demonstrates our self ‐ adjusting mitigation approach for a range of climate stabilization targets ranging from 1.5 to 4.5 °C, and generates AMP scenarios up to year 2300 for surface warming, carbon emissions, atmospheric CO2, global mean sea level, and surface ocean acidification.
A new assimilation system (CERA) has been developed to simultaneously ingest atmospheric and ocean observations in the coupled Earth system model used for ECMWF's ensemble forecasts.
The impact of sea surface temperature bias was further investigated by using uncoupled atmospheric models with prescribed sea surface temperatures, and those 3 models each with differing complexity showed less severe double ITCZ bias than the ensemble of coupled models.
To ensure their models are accurate, Ault said researchers distinguished and separated normal climatic variability from long - term atmospheric alterations, by using a new ensemble of climate change simulations.
Ensembles of process - based crop models are increasingly used to simulate crop growth for scenarios of temperature and / or precipitation changes corresponding to different projections of atmospheric CO2 concentrations.
[18] When models of different physical processes are combined, such as combinations of atmospheric, ocean and wave models, the multi-model ensemble is called hyper - ensemble.
However, I am not a «warmista» by any means — we do not know how to properly quantify the albedo of aerosols, including clouds, with their consequent negative feedback effects in any of the climate sensitivity models as yet — and all models in the ensemble used by the «warmistas» are indicating the sensitivities (to atmospheric CO2 increase) are too high, by factors ranging from 2 to 4: which could indicate that climate sensitivity to a doubling of current CO2 concentrations will be of the order of 1 degree C or less outside the equatorial regions (none or very little in the equatorial regions)- i.e. an outcome which will likely be beneficial to all of us.
Here we use an ensemble of simulations with a coupled ocean — atmosphere model to show that the sea surface temperature anomalies associated with central Pacific El Niño force changes in the extra-tropical atmospheric circulation.
Wang, 5.0 (± 0.27), Modeling A projected September Arctic sea ice extent of 5.0 million km2 is based on a NCEP ensemble mean CFSv2 forecast initialized from the NCEP Climate Forecast System Reanalysis (CFSR) that assimilates observed sea ice concentrations and other atmospheric and oceanic observations.
The method is a sea ice - ocean model ensemble run (without and with assimilation of sea - ice / ocean observations); the coupled ice - ocean model NAOSIM has been forced with atmospheric surface data from January 1948 to 7 July 2015.
To produce this ensemble mean, the model data were first interpolated to standard ocean depths and atmospheric pressures.
Finally, we present results from two 5 - member ensembles of atmospheric model simulations.
Kauker et al., (AWI / OASys); 3.72 (3.30 - 4.14), Modeling Estimated from ensemble coupled sea ice - ocean model runs based on atmospheric reanalyses fields from 1994 - 2013.
The partial radiative perturbations (PRPs) due to changes in cloud and due to the effects of the pre-existing climatological cloud distribution on non-cloud changes, known as «cloud masking», are calculated when atmospheric CO2 concentration is doubled for the HadSM3 and MIROC models and for a large ensemble of parameter perturbed models based on HadSM3.
Another ensemble of models shows a 35 percent increase in the number of days with landfalling atmospheric rivers in western North America.
An even broader distribution function for the increase in mean surface air temperature is the solution ensemble for a standard atmospheric climate model produced by Internet - shared computations (23), but there is a question about how carefully the former ensemble members were selected for their plausibility.
When heavy rainfall probabilities were next investigated in ensembles of two atmospheric general circulation models, run with and without anthropogenically - induced sea surface temperature changes, results were model - dependent.
In a new study published in the Journal of Climate, the Community Earth System Model Large Ensemble (CESM - LENS) of simulations is used to explore how various characteristics of the mid-latitude atmospheric circulation (zonal flow, synoptic blockings, jet stream meanders) evolve along the course of the 21st century under the RCP8.5 scenario of anthropogenic emissions.